http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/31/ipcc-report-world-lose-habitats-climate-change?CMP=ema_1364
To understand what is
happening to the living planet, the great conservationist Aldo Leopold remarked,
is to live "in a world of wounds … An ecologist must either harden his
shell and make believe that the consequences of science are none of his
business, or he must be the doctor who sees the marks of death in a community
that believes itself well and does not want to be told otherwise."
The metaphor suggests that
he might have seen Henrik Ibsen's play, An Enemy
of the People.
Thomas Stockmann is a doctor in a small Norwegian town, and
medical officer at the public baths whose construction has been overseen by his
brother, the mayor. The baths, the mayor boasts, "will become the focus of
our municipal life! … Houses and landed property are rising in value every
day."
But Stockmann discovers that
the pipes have been built in the wrong place, and the water feeding the baths
is contaminated. "The source is poisoned … We are making our living
by retailing filth and corruption! The whole of our flourishing municipal life
derives its sustenance from a lie!" People bathing in the water to improve
their health are instead falling ill.
Stockmann expects to be
treated as a hero for exposing this deadly threat. After the mayor discovers
that re-laying the pipes would cost a fortune and probably sink the whole
project, he decides that his brother's report "has not convinced me that
the condition of the water at the baths is as bad as you represent it
to be".
The mayor proposes to ignore
the problem, make some cosmetic adjustments and carry on as before. After all,
"the matter in hand is not simply a scientific one. It is a complicated
matter, and has its economic as well as its technical side." The local
paper, the baths committee and the business people side with the mayor against
the doctor's "unreliable and exaggerated accounts".
Astonished and enraged,
Stockmann lashes out madly at everyone. He attacks the town as a nest of
imbeciles, and finds himself, in turn, denounced as an enemy of the people. His
windows are broken, his clothes are torn, he's evicted and ruined.
Today's editorial in the
Daily Telegraph, which was by no means the worst of the recent commentary on
this issue, follows the first three acts of the play. Marking the new
assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the
Telegraph sides with the mayor. First it suggests that the panel cannot be
trusted, partly because its accounts are unreliable and exaggerated and partly
because it uses "model-driven assumptions" to forecast future trends.
(What would the Telegraph prefer? Tea leaves? Entrails?). Then it suggests that
trying to stop manmade climate change would be too expensive. Then it proposes
making some cosmetic adjustments and carrying on as before. ("Perhaps
instead of continued doom-mongering, however, greater thought needs to be given
to how mankind might adapt to the climatic realities.")
But at least the Daily
Telegraph accepted that the issue deserved some prominence. On the Daily Mail's
website, climate breakdown was scarcely a footnote to the real issues of the
day: "Kim Kardashian looks more confident than ever as she shows off her
toned curves", and "Little George is the spitting image of Kate".
Beneath these indispensable
reports was a story celebrating the discovery of "vast deposits of coal
lying under the North Sea, which could provide enough energy to power Britain
for centuries". No connection with the release of the new climate report
was made. Like royal babies, Kim's curves and Ibsen's municipal baths, coal is
good for business. Global warming, like Stockmann's contaminants, is the
spectre at the feast.
Everywhere we're told that
it's easier to adapt to global warming than to stop causing it. This suggests
that it's not only the
Stern review on the economics of climate change (showing that it's
much cheaper to avert climate breakdown than to try to live with it) that has
been forgotten, but also the floods which have so recently abated.
If a small, rich,
well-organised nation cannot protect its people from a winter of
exceptional rainfall – which might have been caused by less than
one degree of global warming – what
hope do other nations have, when
faced with four degrees or more?
When our environment
secretary, Owen Paterson, assures us that climate change "is something we
can adapt to over time" or Simon Jenkins, in the Guardian today, says that
we should move towards "thinking intelligently about how the world should adapt to what is
already happening", what do they envisage? Cities relocated to higher
ground? Roads and railways shifted inland? Rivers diverted? Arable land
abandoned? Regions depopulated? Have they any clue about what this would cost?
Of what the impacts would be on the people breezily being told to live with it?
My guess is that they don't
envisage anything: they have no idea what they mean when they say adaptation.
If they've thought about it at all, they probably picture a steady rise in
temperatures, followed by a steady rise in impacts, to which we steadily
adjust. But that, as we should know from our own recent experience, is not how
it happens. Climate breakdown proceeds in fits and starts, sudden changes of
state against which, as we discovered on a small scale in January, preparations
cannot easily be made.
Insurers working out their
liability when a disaster has occurred use a process they call loss adjustment.
It could describe what all of us who love this world are going through, as we
begin to recognise that governments, the media and most businesses have no
intention of seeking to avert the coming tragedies. We are being told to accept
the world of wounds; to live with the disappearance, envisaged in the new
climate report, of coral reefs and summer sea ice, of most glaciers and perhaps
some rainforests, of rivers and wetlands and the species which, like many
people, will be unable to adapt.
As the scale of the loss to
which we must adjust becomes clearer, grief and anger are sometimes
overwhelming. You find yourself, as I have done in this column, lashing out at
the entire town.
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