MAY 11, 2018
“Iraq is at the muzzle of the
gun,” says Ali Allawi, Iraqi historian and former minister, speaking of the
increased turmoil expected to follow the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear
agreement.
It is not only Iraq which is
in danger: an escalating confrontation between the US and Iran will affect the
whole region, but its greatest impact will be in Syria and Iraq where wars have
long been raging and Washington and Tehran are old rivals.
The US will rely at first on
the reimposition of economic sanctions on Iran to force it to comply with US
demands and hopefully bring about regime change in Tehran. But, if this does
not work – and it will almost certainly fail – then there will be a growing
risk of military action either carried out directly by the US or through
“green-lighting” Israeli airstrikes.
Iran is for the moment
reacting cautiously to Trump’s denunciation of the 2015 accord, portraying
itself as the victim of arbitrary action and seeking to spur the EU states into
taking practical steps to resist imposing draconian sanctions along the lines
of those that were imposed before 2015. Even if this does not happen, it will
be important for Iran that the Europeans should only grudgingly cooperate with
the US in enforcing sanctions, particularly on Iranian oil exports.
A problem for the US is that
Trump has made the Iranian nuclear deal negotiated by Barack Obama the issue on
which he will test the limits of US power which he had pledged to expand. But
the agreement is internationally popular and is seen to be working effectively
in denying Iran the ability to develop a nuclear device. The US is therefore
becoming self-isolated, with full support only from Israel and Saudi Arabia, in
the first weeks of a crisis that could go on for years.
Already Trump’s determination
to sink the deal forever has involved marginalising and humiliating France,
Germany and UK. They had pleaded for it to be preserved but made more palatable
to the US by separate agreements on ballistic missiles and other issues. Trump
seems to have enjoyed the procession of European leaders from Emmanuel Macron
to Boris Johnson asking for compromise, only to go away empty-handed.
If the European leaders now go
along with sanctioning Iran, there will be even less reason for Trump to take
their views seriously in future. They have already seen their attempt to
appease him on climate change fail to produce anything, so they either have to
accept that they have less influence and a reduced role in the world or make a
serious attempt to preserve the nuclear accord.
But even if they do so, the US
will be able to put intense economic pressure on Iran and its trading partners.
Banks and companies are terrified of incurring the ire of the US Treasury and
facing massive fines for even an unintentional breach of sanctions. Even if EU
governments want their companies to go on investing in Iran, they may consider
the risk too great.
Sanctions are a powerful but
blunt instrument, take a long time to work and usually do not produce the
political dividends expected by those who impose them. The Iranian rial may
fall and hyperinflation return to 40 per cent, but this will most likely not be
enough if Iran returns to enriching uranium. It has already said that it is not
going to keep abiding by its part of the nuclear agreement if it is not getting
any of the economic benefits promised.
What will the US do then? This
is the crucial question for the Middle East and the rest of the world. Trump
has just torpedoed any diplomatic solution to what he sees as the threat of
Iran developing a nuclear bomb. The only alternative is a military response,
but this would have to be more than a few days of intense airstrikes. Anything
less than total war would not win for Trump the kind of results he says he
wants.
Iran may be weak economically,
but politically and militarily it is in a strong position in Iraq, Syria and
Lebanon, the countries likely to provide the main arena for the coming crisis.
In all three places it is Iran’s fellow Shia who are in control and see the US
as an ally of the Sunni states in what is in large part a sectarian Shia-Sunni
conflict.
Has the Trump administration
thought any of this through? The crisis is beginning to feel very much like
that in the buildup to the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Some of the same figures,
such as the national security adviser John Bolton, are the very same
neoconservatives who believed that invading and occupying Iraq would be an easy
business. They sound as if they are bringing the same blend of arrogance and
ignorance to their coming confrontation with Iran.
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