by Andrey Fomine / May 24th,
2018
Europe has decided to assert
its independence: it will not revise its agreement with Iran and will not
comply with US sanctions. When Washington tore up the Iran deal, that was the
last straw for the European Union. In reality the EU had nowhere left to retreat
— any further capitulation to the Atlanticists’ dictates would render the
entire pan-European project meaningless. Will May 2018 prove to be the turning
point, the moment when the West’s unity began to fracture?
On May 17, 2018, the leaders
of the countries of Europe, together with senior officials from the European
Union, gathered in Sofia, officially to discuss their relations
with the Balkan countries that are candidates for EU membership. But how could
there be any talk of expanding the EU if it is unable to manage its primary
mission — protecting the interests of Europeans? Thus it is unlikely that the
conversation at that informal dinner in the Bulgarian capital was about
anything other than their relations with the US, because Europe is on the verge
of not just a trade war, but a geopolitical conflict with its … Well … with its
what, exactly?
Its senior partner? Ally?
Suzerain? Competitor? In geopolitical terms, the US is without question the boss over the Old World — under the auspices of a
unified West and NATO. It is the American Atlanticists who hold the higher
rank. After WWII, the US used various means of control to seize the reins
in Germany, Italy, France, and other countries in Western and later in Eastern
Europe. Great Britain partnered with them to help keep Europe under control, and
since then — despite any differences that may have arisen between the two
shores of the Atlantic — Europe, even in the form of the European Union, has
generally remained their vassal.
As the project to integrate
Europe gained momentum, continental Europeans felt a growing desire to become
more independent, but Washington and London always kept that situation
well in hand.
Germany’s genuine autonomy and
especially its rapprochement with Russia has clearly been at odds with the
interests of the Atlanticists — and a few years ago, under the pretext of a
“Russian threat,” Europe knuckled under to the anti-Russian
sanctions.
The majority of Europe’s
political class understood that it was beneficial for the EU to have close ties with Russia,
and they have always been looking for a chance to end the confrontation with
Moscow. In order to perpetuate the atmosphere of Russophobia, the Anglo-Saxons even
resorted to staging the provocation with the Skripals, so as to somehow preserve the tension between
Russia and Europe.
It seemed that Europe would
remain under their thumb for the immediate future. Europe’s leaders will wait
to see how the power struggle in the US ends and will try to simultaneously
accommodate themselves to both Trump as well as to the Atlanticist elite that
opposes him. However, recent actions by Washington seem to have prompted some
major changes.
Trump needed the dissolution
of the Iran deal largely for domestic political reasons, but he was prepared to lean
particularly heavily on the Europeans. In accordance with his plans, the
Europeans needed to agree with the US to compel Iran to draw up a new accord
that could be presented as a major victory to the American public. Trump did
not take into account the individual positions of Russia or China, which would
in any case be against a revision of the deal. Apparently inspired by the imaginary success of his Korean offensive (in
which Beijing and Pyongyang created the illusion of a breakthrough for him),
the US president decided that everything would work out fine in this matter as
well. To encourage the Europeans to be more amenable, they were threatened with sanctions. But the Old World balked outright and decided to preserve both
the deal as well as its relationship with Iran.
And the aftermath of the US
pressure on Europe over the Iran deal will now extend far beyond just a
run-of-the-mill misunderstanding between allies.
“Looking at the latest
decisions of President Trump, someone could even think: With friends like that,
who needs enemies? But frankly speaking, Europe should be grateful to President
Trump. Because thanks to him we have got rid of all illusions,” stated the
chairman of the European Council, or in other words, the president of united
Europe, Donald Tusk on May 17, 2018.
And the head of the government
of this united Europe, Jean-Claude Juncker, stated a week earlier that the
European Union needed to take on the role of global leader, because Trump’s
decision to tear up the Iran deal meant that the US “no longer wants to
cooperate” with other parts of the world and was turning away from friendly
relations “with a ferocity that can only surprise us.” In addition, European
countries should do more than simply salvage the agreement with Iran: “We have
to replace the United States, which as an international actor has lost vigor, and
because of it, in the long term, influence.”
So as it turns out, Europe is
not only ready to shoulder the responsibility for its own future — something
which even Angela Merkel has been speaking about for the past year, which
includes providing for its own security — but is also ready to replace the US
as a world leader! Did we actually hear this correctly?
Yes, that’s right. In fact,
they started talking about this in Europe immediately after Donald Trump won
the election more than a year and a half ago. Even then, Trump was declaring
that America should focus on itself and not on the construction of a unified
Atlanticist world, and that for the sake of filling America’s coffers he would
shake down all its partners, enemies, and allies. Europeans, who have grown
used to wielding only limited sovereignty in matters of war and peace, were
suddenly being told that they needed to pay for being protected by the US,
because Trump’s America saw that umbrella as something expendable.
The West’s unity began to fracture.
And although the Atlanticist elite on both sides of the ocean hope that Trump
turns out to be nothing more than a bad dream and that everything will go back
to normal in 2020, the reality is that there is no way the West can regain that
indivisibility. America will rewrite its foreign policy with the goal of
“making itself great again,” regardless of whether or not Trump is in power,
because the hegemon has cracked and America’s more nationalistic elites are
seizing power from the ones who have been playing at being the world’s
policeman.
What is left for the
Atlanticists? Should they make their peace with this or attempt to shift the
Western world’s center of gravity toward Europe? But are there any political
figures in Europe who are capable of taking the lead? They tried to audition
Merkel, but she refused to bite. Tusk or Junker? Macron? They’re all wrong.
There is no solution — and in this environment, relationships among the Western
nations are evolving the way Trump wanted: into a battle between national
states.
Trump sees the EU as a
competitor and he wants to weaken it. When it comes to the Iran deal, what’s
important isn’t even that it’s about Iran, around which Germany and France have
constructed big economic plans, but rather that Europe is simply being ordered
to abandon the idea of protecting its own interests. And also that this is
being done under an utterly contrived pretext. Unlike the introduction of the
anti-Russian sanctions, there are no reasons whatsoever for tearing up that
deal, not even nominal ones.
Europe cannot agree to this.
It would be suicide for the very European Union itself. As Renaud Girard, a columnist for Le Figaro writes: “Now
that such an unheard-of dictate from the US is upon us, will the Europeans be
able to regain their independence? This is a test of truth for the political
dimension of the EU. If the European Union caves to Trump, this will negate any
reason for its existence.”
And the ones talking this way
aren’t just those who have spent the last few years reminding Europe that it is
harming itself by bowing to Washington’s pressure and keeping the anti-Russian
sanctions intact. Now this is the argument being made even by the hardliners on
Moscow — the reliable Atlanticists.
“This is nothing less than a
massive assault on the sovereignty of European states and the European Union.
They are deprived of their right to decide on their policies and actions by
brutal dictates from a foreign — and allegedly friendly — country. This is
utterly unacceptable from a European point of view, as well as a violation of
the preaching of Trump himself. It relegates Europe to just abiding by and
implementing policies with which it profoundly disagrees,” writes former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt in the
Washington Post.
Europe cannot cave in to US
pressure, but it cannot realistically break ties with Washington when rejecting
it, much less lay a claim to the mantle of global leadership. Europe simply
wants more independence, which is already asking a lot, given the current state
of world affairs. To achieve this, Europe needs to develop a more favorable
balance of forces and interests, and when seeking out the building blocks for
this, it naturally turns its gaze toward Moscow.
It just so happens that within
a week the heads of half of the world’s most powerful countries — Germany, France, Japan,
and India — have visits to Russia. Angela Merkel and
Emmanuel Macron were initially planning to talk to Vladimir Putin about a
variety of topics: Syria, trade, Ukraine … But now everything will revolve
around the word “Iran,” which signifies much more than just a country or a
deal. It is rather the choice that Europe is making as we all watch.
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