Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Sorting through the lies about Venezuela














Challenging United States hegemony is never an easy course. A county need not be socialist — it is enough to either voice aspirations toward socialism, or merely demonstrate a pattern of not doing as Washington dictates.

So here we go again, this time with Venezuela. Ironically for a country that the corporate media insistently claims has been ruled by two “dictators” (remember that Hugo Chávez was routinely denounced in the same ways that Nicolás Maduro is today) it would be difficult to find a country with more opportunities for grassroots democracy and for everyday people to participate in the decisions that affect their lives and neighborhoods. There has been backtracking on some of this, and there are legitimate complaints about the top-down manner in which the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) is run. The U.S. government is in no position to point fingers, however, given its history in Latin America and the widespread voter suppression that is a regular feature of U.S. elections.

It is also preposterous to assert that “socialism has failed” in Venezuela, when 70 percent of the country’s economy is in private hands, the country is completely integrated into the world capitalist system and it is (overly) dependent on a commodity with a price that wildly fluctuates on capitalist markets. Venezuela is a capitalist country that does far more than most to ameliorate the conditions of capitalism and in which socialism remains an aspiration. If something has “failed,” it is capitalism. Leaving much of the economy in the hands of capitalists leaves them with the ability to sabotage an economy, a lesson learned in painful fashion during the 1980s in Sandinista Nicaragua.

Before delving into the significant problems of Venezuela, largely due to the economic war being waged against it by the U.S. government and the economic sabotage within by Venezuela’s industrialists and other business interests, it is worthwhile to briefly examine some of the democratic institutions that have been created since the Bolivarian Revolution took root in 1998.

Communal councils organize at neighborhood level

The base of the Venezuelan political system are the communal councils. Various political structures designed to organize people at the grassroots level have evolved into a system of communal councils, organized on a neighborhood level, which in turn build up to communes and communal cities. These are direct-democracy bodies that identify and solve the problems and deficiencies of their local areas with the direct support and funding of the national government. After decades of neglect by previous governments, there were no shortage of problems to tackle.

Like many institutions of the Bolivarian Revolution, these have roots in grassroots organizing that pre-date Hugo Chávez’s first election.

The Barrio Assembly of Caracas emerged in 1991 as something of a general assembly representing local groups, coming into being after demonstrations marking the first and second anniversaries of the “Caracazo” uprising were dispersed by soldiers firing on them from rooftops. (The “Caracazo” uprising was a massive revolt sparked by popular resistance to an austerity package dictated by the International Monetary Fund.)  Later versions of these assemblies organized on the eve of the 2002 coup attempting to overthrow President Chávez; among these assemblies’ accomplishments were distributing 100,000 fliers calling for a march on the presidential palace to defend the government.

The communal councils are the base of an alternative government structure, one intended to bypass municipal and other local governments and to eventually replace them. This was an attempt to provide a concrete form to the concept of “constituent power,” the idea that people should be direct participants in the decisions to affect their lives and communities. Legislation passed in 2006 formally recognized the communal councils and the form quickly gained popularity — there were an estimated 30,000 in existence by 2009. These councils are formed in compact urban areas containing 200 to 400 households in cities and 20 or so in rural areas. All residents of the territory are eligible to participate. In turn, communal councils organize into larger communes, and communes into communal cities, to coordinate projects too large for a neighborhood or to organize projects necessarily on a larger scale, such as improving municipal services.

Communal councils are required to propose three projects that will contribute to development in the community; funding for approved projects will usually come from national-government bodies. An interesting development is that many (in the case of councils studied by researchers, a majority) who have taken active roles in the communal councils were not politically active before the 2002 failed coup. Generally, women outnumber men among the active participants, and it is often older women taking the lead. The culture of participation that the councils encourage and that the Bolivarian government is paying vastly more attention to solving social problems and the needs of the poor than prior governments has facilitated the organizing of women, and the new activity of women in turn is breaking down traditional macho attitudes. That pensions are now much stronger, proving material security, also enables participation. Health committees tackling problems of illness, access to contraception and motherhood are often where participation begins. Once involved, women sign up for training programs, with more women then men taking advantage of these.

Communes often organize enterprises to provide employment for local residents and to help supply needed basic goods. One example is the El Panal 2012 Commune in Caracas. El Panal operates several enterprises and a communal bank. One of the enterprises is a sugar-packaging plant, and there are also bakeries. El Panal activists are also creating links with neighboring communes in Caracas and in other parts of the country. Links are also being created with the countryside — a “Pueblo a Pueblo” initiative brings together urban communities and farmers to distribute food directly, eliminating intermediaries and speculators. El Panal also regularly organizes food fairs at which meats, vegetables and other basic foods can be bought at discounts, well below market prices.

Tackling social problems through missions

There are also the social programs known as “missions” that are based on the direct participation of the beneficiaries. Begun in 2003, there are more than two dozen missions that seek to solve a wide array of social problems. Given the corruption and inertia of the state bureaucracy, and the unwillingness of many professionals to provide services to poor neighborhoods, the missions were established to provide services directly while enabling participants to shape the programs. Much government money was poured into these programs, thanks to the then high price of oil, which in turn enabled the Chávez government to fund them.

Among the approximately two dozen missions are Alimentación, which incorporates the Mercal network that provides food at subsidized prices and a distribution system; Cultura, which seeks the decentralization and democratization of culture to ensure that all have access to it and stimulate community participation; Guaicaipuro, intended to guarantee the rights of Indigenous peoples as specified in the constitution; Madres del Barrio, designed to provide support to housewives in dire poverty and help their families overcome their poverty; Negra Hipólita, which assists children, adolescents and adults who are homeless; Piar, which seeks to help mining communities through dignifying living conditions and establishing environmental practices; and Zamora, intended to reorganize land, especially idle land that could be used for agriculture, in accordance with the constitution.

Venezuelan political scientist and historian Margarita López Maya summarized the breadth of the missions in a Socialist Register article:

“Missions (programs bypassing uncooperative or ineffective state agencies), such as Barrio Adentro (free 24 hours a day primary health care and disease prevention for low income groups), Mercal (state distribution of food at subsidized prices), Robinson 1 and 2 (literacy and primary education for adults), Ribas and Sucre (secondary and university education for those who had missed or not finished these), Vuelvan Caras (training for employment), and the Bolivarian schools, where a full day schedule has been restored, with two free meals and two snacks a day, plus free uniforms and textbooks: all these undoubtedly had a positive political impact. The government has also invested in the social economy, as in the “ruedas de negocios,” in which the creation of cooperatives is encouraged in order to supply goods and services to the state sector. The government has also created a system of micro-financing with the Women’s Bank, the Sovereign People’s Bank, and so on, which make small loans to lower income borrowers.”

Struggles for economic democracy

In the workplaces, there are experiments with co-management, cooperatives, socialist production units and workers’ councils. These forms have been contested — an ongoing multiple-sided struggle over what constitutes “workers’ control” of industry and what forms such control should take continues. Cooperative enterprises are enshrined in the constitution, and a 2001 law mandates that all members be included in decision-making and that an assembly of all members has final decision-making power over all topics. Temporary workers can be hired for a maximum of six months, after which they must be accepted as members. A state ministry was created to provide assistance to cooperatives and small businesses, including the facilitation of securing contracts from state companies.

There are difficulties here. One significant problem were instances of cooperatives being formed only in order to acquire the start-up capital provided by the government, or were small companies that converted to being cooperatives only on paper to take advantage of preferential priority for state contracts or to obtain subsidies. In response to these irregularities, the government began to require coops obtain a “certificate of fulfillment of responsibilities,” which includes financial audits and demonstration of work within their local community. Nonetheless, there are many examples of successful cooperative enterprises.

There are also socialist production units. These are nonprofit, state-owned enterprises that are managed democratically by a combination of their workers, local communal councils and the national government. These enterprises are intended to provide local services, such as transportation and distribution of cooking gas, and the creation of production. Although workers are directly involved in decision-making at these enterprises, the state also has a role, which can sometimes lead to tensions. The goods produced are most often distributed through the Mercal state-owned chain of supermarkets that provides food at subsidized prices, and PDVAL, a state-run food-distribution network. These are often operated at a loss, as they are intended to provide needed goods and services to communities at steep discounts.

A continuing area of contestation are state-owned enterprises. Some argue for state ownership with employee participation, others argue for full autonomy of enterprises and the workers in them, and there are gradations in between. There are managements that don’t wish to cede decision-making authority to their workforce, and there are government officials, despite being part of the Bolivarian movement, who oppose workers’ control, sometimes because they believe in top-down control by the state. There are examples of state-owned companies in which management structures have changed multiple times as different factions temporarily gain control.

The push and pull of competing interests and tendencies is exemplified in the case of the state-owned aluminum smelter Alcasa, which had a well-functioning system of workers’ control under co-management that reversed its debt problems; then had a new director appointed who ignored the co-management structure, with an accompanying fall in productivity and return of corruption; and then a return to co-management when President Chávez named a new company president selected by the workers. Workers’ control was reinstated with new structures, and because of the precarious financial situation caused by the corruption of the middle period, workers began designing parts to be produced internally instead of buying them from suppliers as previously done. More difficulties arose when a dissident union aligned with the local state governor attempted to stop production, and although unsuccessful, caused a significant disruption. Yet another change in management by Chávez led to a renewed deterioration in co-management, and struggles at Alcasa continued.

Economic warfare at home and abroad

Shifting from a traditional capitalist economy toward a participatory economic democracy can’t be expected to be smooth sailing, especially when this attempt is being done in a country with subaltern status in the world capitalist system. President Chávez had to withstand three successive attempts to remove him — the 2002 coup, 2002-03 bosses’ lockout and the 2004 recall referendum. Five times he was elected president, never with less than 55 percent of the vote, and overall he won 16 of 17 elections and referendums in which his movement participated. The election system put in place by the Chávez government was declared by former U.S. President Jimmy Carter’s Carter Center to be “the best in the world.” None of this prevented the late president from being furiously denounced as a “dictator.”

Once he died, however, the attacks were stepped up by the revolution’s opponents, apparently believing that the loss of the leader would make the revolution vulnerable. In reality, the Bolivarian Revolution has always been a movement propelled by millions who will not readily give up the many gains they have achieved and which pushed the late president to go further. Venezuela also has a long tradition of strong, organized movements, which predate the Bolivarian Revolution. Despite the difficulties of recent years and increasing popular disapproval of President Maduro, those movements do not want their gains to be reversed. During the Chávez years, unemployment and poverty were drastically reduced and people were able to participate in the political process for the first time.

So how much of Venezuela’s serious economic problems are the fault of the current president? Some of the blame can be laid at his doorstep, but mostly for his inability to act in timely fashion and allowing problems caused by outside forces to deepen. A serious mistake that has ran through the past 20 years is that no progress was made on reducing Venezuela’s heavy reliance on oil exports. When oil prices were high, the government was content to let the money flow and use it to fund social programs and finance a wide variety of projects. But the later crash in oil prices left the government vulnerable. By not diversifying the economy, much less is earned when the inevitable falls in price arrive and it becomes difficult to maintain consumption because so many consumer products must be imported.

The over-reliance on a single export commodity would be difficult to overcome by itself. But greatly compounding Venezuela’s problems are U.S. sanctions, a currency that became drastically overvalued, and an inflationary spiral resulting from that overvaluation that incentivized black markets and smuggling. Poor management on the part of the government of President Maduro has intensified the damage done by those factors. Although the Venezuelan government set an official exchange rate for its currency, the bolívar, the effective exchange rate was determined by international currency speculators and thus the value of the bolívar is not in the control of Caracas.

Speculators caused the value of the bolívar to be reduced by 97 percent in 2017, and further drastic reductions in the currency’s value continued well into 2018. The value or output of the Venezuelan economy hardly declined by anything remotely comparable, so there are other factors at work for such a drastic reduction in exchange value. But because the Maduro government did not adjust the official exchange rate when the bolívar came under attack, the spread between the official rate and the de facto rate widened to the point that vast opportunities for smuggling and black-market operations were created. That in turn caused shortages and hyperinflation.

These developments were a consequence of Venezuela’s integration into the world capitalist system and the country’s heavy reliance on imports. Food and consumer goods intended to be sold at discounts in state stores were diverted to the black market, where profiteers sold them at prices several times higher or smuggled them into Colombia for huge profits. Government officials have repeatedly discovered vast quantities of consumer goods hidden in warehouses by local capitalists who are artificially causing shortages.

Hardening financial sanctions

United States government sanctions on Venezuela prohibit any U.S. persons or banks from providing financing or purchasing any debt issued by the Venezuelan government or the state oil company PDVSA, the purpose of which is to make it more difficult for the government to raise funds internationally or to restructure debt.

These sanctions are effectively extra-territorial. A non-U.S. bank that seeks to handle a transaction in U.S. dollars (the currency most often used in international transactions) has to do so by clearing the transaction through a U.S. bank; a U.S. bank that cleared such a transaction would be in violation of the sanctions. The Obama administration intensified the U.S. financial war on Venezuela by absurdly declaring the latter a “national security threat” and the Trump administration has issued a succession of decrees tightening the screws.

The latest, issued on January 28, freezes all property and interests of PDVSA subject to U.S. jurisdiction — in other words, blocking Venezuela from any access to the profits generated by PDVSA’s U.S. subsidiary, Citgo, or any PDVSA activities in the United States. The Trump administration expects Venezuela to lose US$11 billion this year, The New York Times reports. That move is in addition to repeated calls by the Trump administration for an overthrow of the Venezuelan government, threats by President Trump to invade, and the Trump administration “recognizing” the opposition leader Juan Guaidó as president although Guaidó has never run for the position and is largely unknown to the Venezuelan public. An added insult is the appointment of death-squad cheerleader Elliot Abrams to “oversee” a “return to democracy,” an idea that would draw laughs if Abrams’ history in Latin America during the Reagan administration weren’t so deadly.

Successive U.S. administrations have subsidized opposition groups — an estimated US$100 million has been poured into Venezuela in an effort to subvert the elected government.

Alan MacLeod, a specialist in media studies, summarized the extra-territorial effect of U.S. sanctions:

“[T]he sanctions strongly discourage other countries from lending money to the country for fear of reprisal and also discourage any businesses from doing business there too. A study from the 2018 opposition Presidential candidate’s economics czar suggested the sanctions were responsible for a 50% drop in oil production. Furthermore, Trump’s sanctions prevent profits from Venezuela-owned CITGO from being sent back to Venezuela. Trump has also threatened banks with 30 years in jail if they co-operate with Caracas and has intimidated others into going along with them.”

President Maduro is repeatedly called a “dictator,” an epithet endless repeated across the corporate media. But when a portion of the opposition boycotts, can it be a surprise that the incumbent wins? The opposition actually asked the United Nations to not send observers, a sure sign that they expected to lose a fair election despite their claims that the election would be rigged. Nonetheless, a coalition of Canadian unions, church leaders and other officials declared the election to be “a transparent, secure, democratic and orderly electoral and voting process.”

Unfortunately, there is every reason to be concerned, given the hostility of U.S. governments and capitalists to any intent to become independent of the U.S. or to direct economic activity to benefit local people rather than maximizing the profits of U.S. multinational corporations. The United States has militarily invaded Latin American and Caribbean countries 96 times, including 48 times in the 20th century. That total constitutes only direct interventions and doesn’t include coups fomented by the U.S., such as Guatemala in 1954 and Chile in 1973. Guatemala was attempting nothing more “radical” than a land reform that would have forced United Fruit to sell idle land at United Fruit’s own under-valuation of the land (a self-assessment made by United Fruit to avoid paying a fair share of taxes). The U.S. overthrew the government and instituted what would become a 40-year nightmare of state-organized mass murder that ultimately cost 200,000 lives. The Chilean effort to build a humane economy was ended with the overthrow of Salvador Allende and the installation of Augusto Pinochet and his murderous regime that immiserated Chileans.

Dissimilar results can hardly be expected if the U.S. were to succeed in overthrowing the Venezuelan government and installing a right-wing government that would reverse the many gains of the past 20 years. Hands off Venezuela!




























Tuesday, January 29, 2019

Many Countries at UN Oppose Trump Interference in Venezuela









https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Yvuapn5jEc























































Venezuela Propaganda Debunked - People Are Against Coup













https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMplqEpfGhs

















































Deadly ‘superbug’ discovered in Arctic















https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ku7QTUc-APo
























































Politics means leadership, not only giving people what they want










Yanis Varoufakis




Yanis Varoufakis, the Spitzenkandidat for the EUROPEAN SPRING, set up by DiEM25, told EURACTIV Germany that: “If the European Left were united, coherent and civilised, we wouldn’t have created Diem25, we’d have joined them. Now we are running against them, which is very painful to us,” the former Greek finance minister told EURACTIV Germany in an interview.




In the interview, Varoufakis lashed out against leftist parties in Europe, saying that their lack of unity cannot bring tangible electoral results and, therefore, changes in the continent.

“There is no real European Left anymore. There are people like Gregor Gysi [President of the European Left], then there’s Alexis Tsipras, who imposes the most ridiculous austerity policies on his people, or Podemos in Spain, who have no policy for Europe at all.”

“The left parties have such different fractions in them that issuing a party manifesto becomes a carte blanche, it’s not coherent. This way you’re not going to draw voters from the right or from progressive parties. You shrink,” Varoufakis said.

Asked if he considered joining the leftist GUE/NGL political group in the next EU Parliament, Varoufakis said ideally his movement would join none of them.

“We’d like to collaborate with different groups on different issues. What the bureaucratic processes in terms of the right to speak etc. may force us into is another thing. But I don’t think this is the time to discuss this. We’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.”

EU lawmakers from the GUE-NGL, the Greens and the EU social democrats (S&D) have formed the so-called Progressive Caucus, an informal group, which aims to build bridges among the three political families and in the long run, form a “progressive” front.

But the European left remains widely fragmented, as seen in the case of the leader of La France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Asked about this move, Varoufakis said it was “just big talk”.

“They’re not really approaching each other. The elections are in May but they don’t work together. They have no common programme, the discourse on Progressive Caucus doesn’t affect their electoral campaigns. It’s irrelevant.”

Why run in Germany?

Asked why he decided to run in Germany, he replied, “If you want to change the Roman Empire, you start in Rome”.

“Germany is the economic heart of Europe, the engine that pulls it, whether we like it or not. But also because public opinion in Germany, until recently at least, was much closer to Europeanism than in France for example,” he said.

He added that the French elites had always looked at the EU as an opportunity to project French power globally whereas Germany really wanted to integrate into the European project.

“That’s why it is the best place to work on democracy in Europe.”

https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-elections-2019/news/varoufakis-there-is-no-real-european-left-i-am-running-against-them/



















Brexit is good news for those in the business of war












LYDIA NOON 28 January 2019




While Brits have grown accustomed to turbulence in political fairyland, last week the action moved from Whitehall to hotels, and the subject matter has been the UK’s future as cheerleader for free trade.

No less than six cabinet ministers attended Davos’ World Economic Trade Forum, resulting in Britain’s first potential post-Brexit trade deal with Israel and, an announcement by the foreign secretary that £2.5 million would be pledged to support the UN peace process in Yemen, followed a day later by, rather embarrassingly, a swanky “arms dealers’ dinner” in London’s Park Lane with many on the guest list enabling the Saudi-led bombardment of Yemen.

And so, as the Brexit engine rumbles on, so does one of the most controversial and disturbing aspects of it: the dealings of the UK’s weapons industry with unscrupulous regimes.

Free trade agreements outside of the EU mean less regulation, and dodgy deals bode well for many countries in the business of buying weapons.

Business and politics: convenient bedfellows

The Government has identified arms sales as a priority for the brave new world post-Brexit, and a global Britain, or arguably a more desperate Britain, looks set to invest in this sector. Europe accounts for few military contracts so there is little downside to the changing market, according to the UK’s trade group for arms companies, euphemistically called the Aerospace, Defence, Security and Space association (ADS).

“Europe will continue to be important, but there are perhaps other areas where there is now a bigger incentive to develop longer-term relationships. Brexit provides the circumstances and the catalyst for faster and more efforts”, said ADS in August 2016.

One of ADS’ members, British multinational BAE systems, is similarly nonchalant. The UK’s largest manufacturer says that Brexit is “just not that big a deal”, and is excited about frictionless trade. It is worth noting that the corporation’s main customers are Saudi Arabia, the US and the UK, with Europe only accounting for 8%eight percent of its income in 2017.

Theresa May set up five business councils in November 2018 in order for companies to advise her on “post-Brexit opportunities”. The chair of BAE systems, Roger Carr, along with Rolls- Royce chair Ian Davis, co-lead the industrial, infrastructure, and manufacturing council, which is to meet three times a year.

Meanwhile, ADS and its member companies, which include Airbus, missiles manufacturer MBDA and G4S, among others, invited MPs to meet them in parliament on 9 January, to plead the business case for voting for Theresa May’s ultimately doomed EU withdrawal deal, which was rejected on 15 January.

ADS chief executive Paul Everitt has spoken of the continued uncertainty of Brexit being damaging to business investment, forcing companies to implement costly contingency plans, while Airbus warned this week that the company could pull out of the country in the event of a no-deal Brexit, or perhaps even with one. It’s worth noting that Airbus, which manufacturers commercial and military aircraft, has been propped up by both British government and EU subsidies in recent years.

Taxpayer subsidies don’t end there. An extra £2 billion was allocated to the international trade budget last October to increase Britain’s presence across the world, of which touting arms deals is a large part.

A very Brexit race to the bottom

In the 12 months following the 2016 EU referendum, Britain cleared export licences worth £2.9 billion to 30 countries with oppressive regimes – such as Bahrain, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan – up almost a third on the previous year where export licences were granted to just 17 such countries, according to research by Campaign Against the Arms Trade and inews.

The UK’s weapons trade was worth a total of £74 billion in 2017, with exports reaching £41 billion, providing direct employment for 380,000 people.

At the DSEI arms fair in London, the largest of its kind in the world, that year, international trade secretary and staunch Brexit supporter, Liam Fox, insisted in his keynote speech that Britain had measures in place to allow “ethical defence exports”, worth £5.9 billion a year to the British economy.

Fast forward 16 months and Fox has just secured Britain’s first post-Brexit “in principle” trade deal with Israel while at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The announcement on 24 January comes after a mega year of trade between the two countries. Plans are afoot for trade meetings in London with Israeli government ministers in the coming months.

The UK’s increasingly closer ties with Israel include rising levels of arms sales. In 2017, the government issued a record £221 million worth of weapons licenses to British defence companies exporting missiles, sniper rifles and other equipment to the regime. These deals flew in the face of international conventions condemning Israel’s human rights violations against its Palestinian population and in the West Bank and Gaza.

Black tie dinner

On 23 January, the cream of Britain’s arm traders attended an annual black tie dinner at Grosvenor House Hotel in London. The ADS drinks reception and three-course dinner brought MPs, military figures and arms dealers together, with tickets costing £225 for members and £450 for non-members.

Government minister for trade and export promotion Rona Fairhead, and former Labour Home Secretary, Alan Johnson, spoke at the event, along with BAE Systems chief executive Charles Woodburn. The multinational company was also one of the sponsors of the event.

Rona Fairhead works with Liam Fox on the UK’s export strategy, and has spoken of her ambition to increase UK exports from 30 percent of GDP to 35 percent.

Alan Johnson, meanwhile, was quoted on the ADS event web page, which has since been taken down, saying that during his after-dinner speech, he would: “reflect on my time in Parliament, drawing parallels with programmes such as ‘Yes Minister and “The thick of it”.

Campaign against the Arms Trade and Stop the Arms Fair organised a demonstration outside the venue highlighting the complicity of the UK in Yemenis’ suffering. Chants of “Arms dealers feast while Yemen is starved” meant that none of the attendees could plead ignorance: over 14 million people risk starvation in the ravaged country.

Britain’s arms deals with Saudi Arabia garner a great deal of controversy: the government has issued £5 billion of licenses for military exports to the regime since it started bombing Yemen in 2015, and, despite widespread calls for an arms embargo from many politicians, campaign groups, Yemeni activists and members of the European Parliament, Theresa May’s government is undeterred.

Police pushed, pulled and dragged protesters out of the way as they disrupted the entrance of the largely middle-aged, white male guest-list. They formed protective lines around those attending, ushering them into the hotel in a show of misplaced loyalty, symbolic of the state’s ongoing support of repressive regimes.

On asking three men in black tie if they knew why people were protesting, one said that he worked in civil aviation; it had nothing to do with him, another, angrily: “you don’t know what you’re talking about”, while the third said that he made planes, not weapons.

There’s no hiding from the fact though that many of the 1000 UK-registered companies in ADS make and sell weaponry – whether to countries on watchlists or to countries compiling the watchlists. Some, like Northrop Grumman, also offer personnel support, in the form of training the Saudi military and providing technical services to the Ministry of the National Guard.

Supporting Yemen?

Wilfully detached from the horrors of war, obstinately focusing on what the electorate want to hear – job creation, British-made, contributing to the economy – those in the business of sustaining it must start listening to those affected by its consequences.

“All across Yemen people are suffering and dying. This is a very, very dirty war”, said Sarah, at the demonstration. From Aden, a city in southern Yemen, she has lived in the UK for 19 years. “I hope our voice can reach those responsible for what’s happening and I hope that they stop what they are doing.

I asked Sarah whether she’s worried that Brexit will increase the UK’s involvement in the onslaught on Yemen.

“I can’t say much about the politics, I can just say the human side. I hope it doesn’t get worse under Brexit, I pray to God it doesn’t. I know that the people have nothing to do with it and it is just some who are responsible for it – I hope that they will stop selling these weapons and look at the people that are dying.”

In an ill-timed move, the day before the arms dealers’ dinner, foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt announced an extra £2.5 million to support the UN peace process in Yemen. This brings the total amount of British financial support to Yemeni people to a paltry £570 million since 2015.

Hunt added that Britain would support the “deployment and coordination of demining and explosive ordinance disposal capacity in Hodeidah city”, explosives that may not – and should not – have been sold to the Saudi regime by the UK – but clarity on that, thanks to the government’s opaque licensing system, is near impossible to ascertain.























Climate change reshaping how heat moves around globe















Shifts in ocean, atmosphere heat transfer important to watch, researchers say



January 28, 2019

Ohio State University




The Earth's atmosphere and oceans play important roles in moving heat from one part of the world to another, and new research is illuminating how those patterns are changing in the face of climate change.

"The greenhouse effect and carbon dioxide aren't the only issues to consider as the planet grows warmer -- they are just one part of the equation. The way that the atmosphere and oceans move heat around is changing, too, and this could have significant effects on temperatures around the world," said Zhengyu Liu, co-lead author of the study and professor of climate dynamics in the Department of Geography at The Ohio State University.

Liu and Chengfei He, a graduate student in Ohio State's atmospheric science program, analyzed model simulations to illustrate how heat is expected to be transferred by the oceans and atmosphere in the near future. The researchers compared the models with historical temperature data from the oceans themselves to paint a clearer picture of how climate change is shifting and will continue to shift these patterns in this century. Their study appears online today (Jan. 28, 2019) in the journal Nature Climate Change.

Without heat transfer, the world's hottest spots would be sizzling and the coolest spots would be even more frigid. Conditions in both hot and cold climates are affected by the movement of heat from the equator toward the poles in the atmosphere and oceans, He said.

As scientists look for a better understanding of all the factors contributing to climate change -- and for ways to ameliorate the problem -- these heat-transfer patterns are important to watch, He said.

This is the first study to examine current changes in heat transfer and to conclude that warming temperatures are driving increased heat transfer in the atmosphere, which is compensated by a reduced heat transfer in the ocean. Additionally, the researchers concluded that the excess oceanic heat is trapped in the Southern Ocean around the Antarctic.

"The ocean stores a lot of heat and in the last 50 years that has increased. And we can correlate that directly with increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide caused by human activity," Liu said. "Most studies like this have looked at future changes, hundreds of years from now. We examined the near-term differences of a warming climate."

For now, that heat is not re-entering the atmosphere, but at some point it may. If that were to happen, changes in heat transfer could contribute to significant shifts in normal temperatures worldwide, he said.

"For instance, if we didn't have heat transfer, Ohio would be 20 or 30 degrees colder than we are right now," Liu said. "Therefore, it is important to predict how the heat transfer will be changed in the future."

Aixue Hu of Colorado's National Center for Atmospheric Research also worked on the study.

The National Science Foundation supported the study.


Story Source:

Materials provided by Ohio State University. Original written by Misti Crane. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.


Journal Reference:

Chengfei He, Zhengyu Liu, Aixue Hu. The transient response of atmospheric and oceanic heat transports to anthropogenic warming. Nature Climate Change, 2019; DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0387-3
























Monday, January 28, 2019

In Germany's plan to phase out coal, a big polluter will benefit















A proposal to stop Germany from using coal for power generation within two decades may leave an unexpected beneficiary: The company that burns the most of the fuel.

While RWE AG was quick to say it’s “too soon” to shed all fossil fuel plants by 2038, the recommendations outlined this weekend by a panel advising Chancellor Angela Merkel called for compensation for the utilities and 40 billion euros ($45.6 billion) for regions coping with the transition.

Together, the measures would significantly soften the blow on industry from Merkel’s vow to scale back greenhouse gases. They show how far the government has moved away from a quick clampdown on the most polluting fossil fuel and give more certainty for the future of some of RWE’s most valuable assets. And while the proposals could yet be watered down by politicians, they signal a longer life for many of the utility’s plants than environmentalists had hoped for.

“We believe that clarity, compensation payments, and a relatively long phase-out period should trigger a re-rating for the company’s conventional power generation,” said Guido Hoymann, an analyst at the private bank B. Metzler Seel. Sohn & Co. KGaA who added RWE to a list of top 10 German stocks.

Germany’s 120 or so remaining coal and lignite plants have a combined capacity of about 45 gigawatts. That’s enough to feed 40 percent of the nation’s power demand or about 32 million homes. Germany is already falling short on its targets to slash greenhouse gas emissions and sees closing coal plants as one of the most important ways to make the reductions needed. The coal commission includes members from the main political parties, environmental groups and industry charged with developing a consensus that Germany can live with for years to come.

The commission began outlining its proposals on Saturday ahead of its final publication on Feb. 1. It recommended closing the last of the coal plants in 20 years – by 2038 – a much slower phaseout for coal than the abrupt closure ordered for nuclear reactors in 2011. Then, a meltdown at the Fukushima plant in Japan set in motion plans in Berlin to close all of Germany’s atomic plants within 11 years. While the nuclear industry had to sue for compensation, coal operators will be paid for closing their plants.

RWE said the commission’s proposals are at the edge of what the power industry can deliver and would do significant damage to the company. It said the panel calls for closing some coal and lignite plants by 2022 and would have a “serious impact’’ on its operations. It’s still analysing the initial conclusions in the report, which didn’t set out exactly what plants will have to close and when. Some of those details may come with the final publication, while others are likely to be a matter for negotiation with the government.

“The commission's proposals have serious consequences for RWE's lignite business,’’ Rolf Martin Schmitz, chief executive officer of RWE, said in a statement on Saturday. “The yardstick for the assessment must be that politicians find solutions that neither disadvantage the affected employees nor the company. We are committed to safeguarding the interests of our employees and shareholders. Of course, we are open to discussions."

The coal phase-out is part of a 500 billion-euro switch away from fossil fuels and toward renewables ordered by Merkel and her colleagues – part of the fight against global warming.

The shift for Germany is much more painful than the decision the U.K. and other European countries took to scrap coal in the middle of the next decade. That’s partly because Germany and RWE still employ thousands at lignite mines, which produce a soft form of coal that’s both cheap and highly polluting.

Germany needs low-cost and reliable energy to stay competitive against rival manufacturing powerhouses like the U.S. and China. That leaves a further hurdle before the government can order a total exit from coal – and it’s only one of the political complexities Merkel is struggling to balance.

A few events boosted voter concern about climate change this summer.

Hotter than usual weather caused this summer. [CAUSED WHAT THIS SUMMER?  -- v.m.] Rivers dried up in the heat and because flows from glaciers have declined. Protests at RWE’s lignite mine at Hambach made the site an emblem for the environmental movement, which wants to protect an ancient forest there. The unions that want to preserve jobs also demonstrated at the site.

Those issues bled away support from Merkel’s party, boosting both the anti-coal Green Party to second place in national opinion polls and the right-wing AfD. The commission has recommended preserving the forest at Hambach, something RWE says will require major changes at the pit.

RWE has warned that scrapping coal plants and halting mining would cost thousands of jobs and lead to hundreds of millions of euros of writedowns. Hoymann, the analyst at Metzler, estimates that RWE’s market value of about 13 billion euros includes a valuation of negative 4 billion euros for its conventional power generation assets. Guaranteeing the life of some of those facilities could be a boost for RWE in the eyes of investors, who were concerned the company may face a stricter schedule of closures. The company also could benefit from higher electricity prices as more of its big power plants close, reducing baseload generation.

Economy Minister Peter Altmaier has indicated concerns about jobs and energy security are at the top of his mind. The shift away from coal “has to be affordable, has to ensure power security and it has to be sustainable,” Altmaier said in a speech in Berlin on Jan. 19. “The issue of affordability isn’t just any old issue. The exit from coal will lead to big upheavals in the coal regions including jobs and we’re preparing the necessary finance for that.”

Jobs appear to be on Merkel’s mind, too. The populist AfD — which stands against Merkel’s energy transition — has made gains in disadvantaged coal regions where elections are due later this year. Analysts say poor showings there could push the center-left Social Democratic Party to pull the plug on Merkel’s coalition, bringing a swift end to her record-breaking reign as chancellor.

The coal commission itself has indicated its sensitivity to those issues.

“These regions and the people that live in them expect, justifiably, solidarity from society and politicians,” the coal commission draft report says.
“Structural reform policies must take account of the experiences of those living in east German states.”

A lengthy period of negotiation with the government over which coal plants must retire and when could result in costly court battles and a bitter end to German miners once dubbed “black gold.” For RWE, a slower phaseout would lend it a lifeline that would allow profit to keep flowing a little longer from those assets on its books. “But RWE is about more than just coal,” Schmitz said in Berlin last week. “The commission’s results should give us planning certainty.”

(Reporting by William Wilkes and Brian Parkin).