June 14, 2016 — 4:00 PM CDT
Democrat Hillary Clinton has
opened up a double-digit lead nationally over Republican Donald Trump, whose
negatives remain unusually high for a presidential candidate amid early
indications that the Orlando terrorist attack has had little direct impact on
the 2016 race.
A new Bloomberg
Politics national poll shows Clinton leading Trump 49 percent to
37 percent among likely voters in November's election, with 55 percent of those
polled saying they could never vote for the real-estate developer and TV
personality.
Most national polls in late
May and early June showed a closer race, but they were taken before criticism
intensified of Trump's charge that a U.S. judge overseeing fraud
cases against Trump University is biased because of the
judge’s Mexican heritage. Fifty-five percent of likely voters in the
new poll said they were very bothered by those comments.
“Clinton has a number of
advantages in this poll, in addition to her lead,” said pollster J.
Ann Selzer, who oversaw the survey. “Her supporters are more enthusiastic
than Trump’s and more voters overall see her becoming a more appealing
candidate than say that for Trump.”
One bit of positive news for
Trump in the results is that he narrowly edges out Clinton, 45 percent to 41
percent, when those surveyed were asked which candidate they would have more
confidence in if a similar attack to the one in Florida took place a
year from now. The violence left 49 victims dead, the worst mass shooting in
U.S. history.
Fifty percent to 45
percent, Trump is also viewed as stronger among likely voters in combating
terrorist threats at home and abroad.
The Bloomberg poll is the
first major telephone survey since the mass shooting, heightened furor over Trump's
statements about the judge, and Clinton’s June primary victories in California
and other states that cemented her status as the presumptive Democratic
nominee.
The poll was conducted Friday
through Monday, with additional questions about terrorism, guns, and Muslims
added after the carnage early Sunday in Orlando. Results from those questions
have a higher margin of error—plus or minus 4.9 percentage points—than the rest
of the poll. The poll used likely voters for its presidential horse-race questions,
while most national surveys earlier this year have used the larger universes of
registered voters or simply adults.
While the shooting didn’t
alter the poll’s night-by-night findings in the presidential race in any
significant way, the incident did alter the trend lines on other measures.
The proportion of Americans
saying the nation is on the right track dropped to 19 percent from 27 percent,
when compared before and after the Orlando incident. The share saying terrorism
or the Islamic State is the most important election issue rose to 28 percent
from 16 percent.
When two days of polling
before Orlando are compared with the two days after, President Barack Obama's
job approval rating dropped to 51 percent from 55 percent, while his favorability
dropped to 52 percent from 57 percent.
Trump's suggestions that Obama
hasn't taken forceful enough action to stop domestic terrorism because he sides
with Muslims landed with a thud for the majority of Americans, with 61 percent
disagreeing with the suggestion. A strong majority—69 percent—also disagree
that law enforcement agencies should increase surveillance of all American
Muslims, even if it conflicts with civil liberties.
There's greater division on
whether the U.S. should ban the sale of all semi-automatic or automatic rifles
to civilians, with 50 percent saying no and 48 percent saying yes. A plurality
of 47 percent agree with Trump's suggestion that avoiding the phrase “radical
Islam” makes the U.S. look weak in fighting terrorism, while 44 percent
disagree.
Clinton's polling advantage
over Trump followed a strong week for her that has included primary wins and
multiple endorsements, including from Obama and Vice President Joe Biden. She
is expected to win the one remaining Democratic primary Tuesday in the
District of Columbia.
The former secretary of state
is far from universally loved, but the share of likely voters who say they
could never vote for her—43 percent—is much lower than Trump's 55 percent.
Other troubling findings for
Trump in poll include how 63 percent of women say they could never vote for
him. “If you can never get the vote of two in three women, who are a majority
of voters, that is something that has to change for Trump to emerge
victorious,” Selzer said.
Similar proportions of those
younger than 35 and those with incomes of less than $50,000 also say they could
never support him.
Trailing Clinton and Trump is
Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson. The former New Mexico governor recorded
9 percent among likely voters, below the 15-percent average he'd need in
national polls to be included in this year's presidential debates.
How things play out in the
dozen or so battleground states that typically decide presidential elections
may be more important than broad national trends, but some indicators are
telling. Clinton dominates with many of the groups typically important in
general elections, winning the support of 57 percent of women, 58 percent of
those who aren't married, and 77 percent of non-whites.
Those who backed Clinton's
nomination challenger, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, are mostly rallying
around her. She receives 55 percent from Sanders supporters, while Trump gets
22 percent and Johnson gets 18 percent.
For his part, Trump is winning
50 percent support from white men, compared to 33 percent for Clinton and 13
percent for Johnson. He's getting 54 percent support among evangelical
Christians, while Clinton gets 36 percent from that group.
White men are among Trump's
strongest demographics. But even there he's not showing as much strength as the
party's last nominee, Mitt Romney, who beat Obama in 2012 by 62 percent to 35
percent among white men, according to exit polls.
More of Clinton's supporters
are excited than Trump's as the two embark on the start of the general
election, with 43 percent of the Democrat's backers saying they're “very
enthusiastic” about their nominee, compared to 33 percent who say that among
those backing Trump.
Among all likely
general-election voters, nearly two-thirds say Trump is becoming less appealing
to them, while 51 percent say that of Clinton.
“I would like to see a third
party established so that we have more choices,” said poll participant Shawn
Barry, 52, a truck driver from Omaha, Nebraska. Barry said he plans to write in
Sanders’ name on his November ballot, calling Clinton “part of the problem” and
Trump a “big practical joke.”
Almost two-thirds of likely
voters say they expect Trump, 70, to continue to say things that will upset
some Republicans, while 30 percent say they anticipate he'll tone down his
rhetoric and say fewer inflammatory things.
For her part, 60 percent say
they expect Clinton will continue to face questions about the use of a personal
e-mail account for official business when she was secretary of state, while 35
percent think the issue will be put to rest before the election.
On possible lines of attack
against Clinton and Trump, the survey found several that resonate strongly with
likely voters.
Sixty-two percent of those
planning to vote in November said they're bothered a lot by Trump's use of
words like “pig,” “slob,” “bimbo,” and other lewd comments to describe women.
Roughly half say they are
troubled about Trump's proposal to temporarily ban all Muslims from entering
the U.S. His calls to deport an estimated 11 million undocumented
immigrants and his statement that Mexican immigrants are “bringing drugs,
they're bringing crime, they're rapists” bothers 50 percent a lot.
Forty-five percent say they
are bothered a lot about Trump University, his for-profit real-estate
program that’s been accused in lawsuits and by state officials of
misleading students. The same number say they are bothered a lot that Trump
hasn’t released his tax returns, potentially breaking with a precedent for a
major-party nominee that has spanned 40 years.
For Clinton, half of likely
voters say they are bothered a lot that she has given speeches to Wall Street
banks that paid her hundreds of thousands of dollars. Roughly that same
proportion—47 percent—say they are that bothered that the Clinton foundation
took money from foreign countries while Clinton was secretary of state, raising
questions about special treatment for those countries.
Forty-five percent say they
are bothered a lot by Clinton's use of a private e-mail server for official
business that wasn't allowed while she was secretary of state.
Just more than a third say
they are bothered a lot that Clinton, 68, has been accused of working to
undermine the reputations of women who were linked to former President Bill
Clinton's infidelity.
Her tenure in Washington since
the 1990s deeply bothers 35 percent of likely voters, at least when they're
told that she's part of the Washington establishment and not a leader with
different ideas and perspectives.
The fact that she's been
called a failure as secretary of state by critics because of continued violence
in the Middle East and the rise of the Islamic State is deeply concerning to 38
percent.
The poll interviewed 1,000
adults, including 750 who said they're likely to vote in November's general
election. It also interviewed an additional 150 adults on Monday night, asking
them only questions related to the Orlando attack. A total of 408 answered
those questions in the survey, which was conducted by Selzer &
Co. of West Des Moines, Iowa. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus
3.6 percentage points on questions involving likely voters, while it's plus or
minus 3.1 percentage points for those asked of all adults.
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