May 16, 2019
We have been here many times
before. However, on this occasion even the principal actors understand that the
Palestinian Authority is not crying wolf as it warns of imminent collapse.
Keen to pander to hawkish public
opinion in the run-up to last month’s election, Israel’s Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu struck a severe blow against Mahmoud Abbas and his
government-in-permanent-waiting.
He announced that Israel would
withhold a portion of the taxes it collects on behalf of the Palestinians, and
which it is obligated under the Oslo accords to pass on to the PA, based in the
West Bank.
The money deducted is the sum
the PA transfers as stipends to the families of political prisoners and those
killed and maimed by the Israeli army.
This is an incendiary issue,
as Netanyahu well knows, given that Palestinians view these families as having
made the ultimate sacrifice in the struggle to liberate their people from
brutal Israeli occupation.
Abbas cannot be seen to back
down, and so has refused to accept any of the monthly tax transfers until the
full sum is reinstated, amounting to nearly two-thirds of the PA’s revenues.
Given how precarious
Palestinian finances are, after decades of resource theft and restrictions on
development imposed by Israel, the PA is already on the brink of bankruptcy.
The problem for Netanyahu and
Washington is that the PA was established – under the 25-year-old Oslo accords
– to take the pressure and costs off Israel of policing the Palestinian
population under occupation.
If the PA collapses, so do the
Palestinian security forces that have been keeping order in the West Bank as
Israel has continued to plunder Palestinian land and resources.
UN Warning
Late last month the United
Nations warned that the standoff had left the PA facing “unprecedented
financial, security and political challenges.” Which means that, despite his
recent electoral triumph, Netanyahu is in a serious bind. He cannot be seen by his
even more rightwing coalition partners to be climbing down and restoring
stipends to people Israelis view simply as “terrorists.” Equally, he dares not
risk a Palestinian uprising in the West Bank. That would be a real possibility
if the Palestinian economy implodes and there are no Palestinian security
forces to suppress the resulting wave of popular anger.
A preview of the difficulties
in store was given at the start of the month, when more than 600 rockets were
fired out of Gaza, threatening the cancellation of the Eurovision song contest
in Israel later this month. By May 5, four Israelis were reported dead, while
20 Palestinians had been killed by Israeli airstrikes. The Palestinian
fatalities included two pregnant women and a toddler.
There is also the danger, from
Israel’s point of view, that if Abbas’s PA collapses, the void in the West Bank
will be filled by his Hamas rivals, who run Gaza. Israel has been delighted to
keep the Palestinian territories divided under feuding Fatah and Hamas leaderships.
A way out – or a change of
tack – is urgently required.
Israel has tried twice to
quietly make partial tax transfers to the PA’s bank account, in the hope the
money would be accepted. The PA returned it.
Then, the European Union
stepped in. Ostensibly an “honest broker,” it appears to be occupying a role
the Trump administration has formally abandoned. The EU proposed this month
that the PA accept the transfers on a “provisional basis,” until the crisis can
be resolved.
PA officials were dismissive.
“Let the people take to the streets,” one said. “We have our backs to the
wall.” The PA line is that in the current climate, if it backtracks, Israel
will simply intensify unilateral measures harming the Palestinian cause.
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