PEPE ESCOBAR
Vast swathes of the West seem
not to realize that if the Strait of Hormuz is shut down a global depression
will follow, writes Pepe Escobar.
The Trump administration once
again has graphically demonstrated that in the young, turbulent 21st century,
“international law” and “national sovereignty” already belong to the Realm of
the Walking Dead.
As if a deluge of sanctions
against a great deal of the planet was not enough, the latest “offer you can’t
refuse” conveyed by a gangster posing as diplomat, Consul Minimus Mike Pompeo,
now essentially orders the whole planet to submit to the one and only arbiter
of world trade: Washington.
First the Trump administration
unilaterally smashed a multinational, UN-endorsed agreement, the JCPOA, or Iran
nuclear deal. Now the waivers that magnanimously allowed eight nations to
import oil from Iran without incurring imperial wrath in the form of sanctions
will expire on May 2 and won’t be renewed.
President Trump’s decision to
withdraw from the Iran deal upheld his highest obligation: to protect the
safety and security of the American people.
Why Iran sanctions are necessary: http://45.wh.gov/SUUPiW
Why Iran sanctions are necessary: http://45.wh.gov/SUUPiW
The eight nations are a mix of
Eurasian powers: China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, Italy and
Greece.
Apart from the trademark toxic
cocktail of hubris, illegality, arrogance/ignorance and geopolitical/geo–economic
infantilism inbuilt in this foreign policy decision, the notion that Washington
can decide who’s allowed to be an energy provider to emerging superpower China
does not even qualify as laughable. Much more alarming is the fact that
imposing a total embargo of Iranian oil exports is no less than an act of war.
Ultimate Neocon Wet
Dream
Those subscribing to the
ultimate U.S, neocon and Zionist wet dream – regime change in Iran – may
rejoice at this declaration of war. But as Professor
Mohammad Marandi of the University of Tehran has elegantly
argued, “If the Trump regime miscalculates, the house can easily come
crashing down on its head.”
Reflecting the fact Tehran
seems to have no illusions regarding the utter folly ahead, the Iranian
leadership — if provoked to a point of no return, Marandi
additionally told me — can get as far as “destroying everything on
the other side of the Persian Gulf and chasing the U.S. out of Iraq and
Afghanistan. When the U.S. escalates, Iran escalates. Now it depends on
the U.S. how far things go.”
This red alert from a sensible
academic perfectly dovetails with what’s happening with the structure of the
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) — recently branded a “terrorist
organization” by the United States. In perfect symmetry, Iran’s Supreme
National Security Council also branded the U.S. Central Command — CENTCOM — and
“all the forces connected to it” as a terrorist group.
The new IRGC
commander-in-chief is Brigadier General Hossein Salami, 58. Since 2009 he was
the deputy of previous commander Mohamamd al-Jafari, a soft spoken but tough as
nails gentleman I met in Tehran two years ago. Salami, as well as Jafari, is a
veteran of the Iran-Iraq war; that is, he has actual combat experience. And
Tehran sources assure me that he can be even tougher than Jafari.
In tandem, IRGC Navy Commander
Rear Admiral Alireza
Tangsiri has evoked the unthinkable in terms of what might develop out
of the U.S. total embargo on Iran oil exports; Tehran could block the
Strait of Hormuz.
Western Oblivion
Vast swathes of the ruling
classes across the West seem to be oblivious to the reality that if Hormuz is
shut down, the result will be an absolutely cataclysmic global economic
depression.
Warren Buffett, among other
investors, has routinely qualified the 2.5 quadrillion derivatives market as a
weapon of financial mass destruction. As it stands, these derivatives are used
— illegally — to drain no less than a trillion U.S. dollars a year out of the
market in manipulated profits.
Considering historical
precedents, Washington may eventually be able to set up a Persian Gulf of
Tonkin false flag. But what next?
If Tehran were totally
cornered by Washington, with no way out, the de facto nuclear option of
shutting down the Strait of Hormuz would instantly cut off 25 percent of
the global oil supply. Oil prices could rise to over $500 a barrel, to
even $1000 a barrel. The 2.5 quadrillion of derivatives would start a chain
reaction of destruction.
Unlike the shortage of credit
during the 2008 financial crisis, the shortage of oil could not be made up by
fiat instruments. Simply because the oil is not there. Not even
Russia would be able to re-stabilize the market.
It’s an open secret in private
conversations at the Harvard Club – or at Pentagon war-games for that matter –
that in case of a war on Iran, the U.S. Navy would not be able to keep the
Strait of Hormuz open.
Russian SS-NX-26 Yakhont missiles — with
a top speed of Mach 2.9 — are lining up the Iranian northern shore of
the Strait of Hormuz. There’s no way U.S. aircraft carriers can defend a barrage
of Yakhont missiles.
Then there are the SS-N-22
Sunburn supersonic anti-ship missiles — already exported to
China and India — flying ultra-low at 1,500 miles an hour with
dodging capacity, and extremely mobile; they can be fired from a flatbed truck,
and were designed to defeat the U.S. Aegis radar defense system.
What Will China Do?
The full–frontal attack on
Iran reveals how the Trump administration bets on breaking Eurasia integration
via what would be its weakeast node; the three key nodes are China, Russia and
Iran. These three actors interconnect the whole spectrum; Belt and Road Initiative;
the Eurasia Economic Union; the Shanghai Cooperation Organization; the
International North-South Transportation Corridor; the expansion of BRICS Plus.
So there’s no question the
Russia-China strategic partnership will be watching Iran’s back. It’s no
accident that the trio is among the top existential “threats” to the U.S.,
according to the Pentagon. Beijing knows how the U.S. Navy is able to cut
it off from its energy sources. And that’s why Beijing is strategically
increasing imports of oil and natural gas from Russia; engineering the “escape
from Malacca” also must take into account a hypothetical U.S. takeover of
the Strait of Hormuz.
A plausible scenario involves
Moscow acting to defuse the extremely volatile U.S.-Iran confrontation, with
the Kremlin and the Ministry of Defense trying to persuade President Donald
Trump and the Pentagon from any direct attack against the IRGC. The inevitable
counterpart is the rise of covert ops, the possible staging of false flags and
all manner of shady Hybrid War techniques deployed not only against the IRGC,
directly and indirectly, but against Iranian interests everywhere. For all
practical purposes, the U.S. and Iran are at war.
Within the framework of the
larger Eurasia break-up scenario, the Trump administration does profit from
Wahhabi and Zionist psychopathic hatred of Shi’ites. The “maximum pressure” on
Iran counts on Jared of Arabia Kushner’s close WhatsApp pal Mohammad bin Salman
(MbS) in Riyadh and MbS’s mentor in Abu Dhabi, Sheikh Zayed, to replace the
shortfall of Iranian oil in the market. Bu that’s nonsense — as quite
a few wily Persian Gulf traders are adamant Riyadh won’t “absorb Iran’s market
share” because the extra oil is not there.
Much of what lies ahead in the
oil embargo saga depends on the reaction of assorted vassals and semi-vassals.
Japan won’t have the guts to go against Washington. Turkey will put up a fight.
Italy, via Salvini, will lobby for a waiver. India is very complicated; New
Delhi is investing in Iran’s Chabahar port as the key hub of its own Silk Road,
and closely cooperates with Tehran within the INSTC framework. Would a shameful
betrayal be in the cards?
China, it goes without saying,
will simply ignore Washington.
Iran will find ways to get the
oil flowing because the demand won’t simply vanish with a magic wave of an
American hand. It’s time for creative solutions. Why not, for instance, refuel
ships in international waters, accepting gold, all sorts of cash, debit cards,
bank transfers in rubles, yuan, rupees and rials— and everything bookable
on a website?
Now that’s a way Iran can use
its tanker fleet to make a killing. Some of the tankers could be parked in— you
got it — the Strait of Hormuz, with an eye on the price at Jebel Ali
in the UAE to make sure this is the real deal. Add to it a duty free for the
ships crews. What’s not to like? Ship owners will save fortunes on fuel bills,
and crews will get all sorts of stuff at 90 percent discount in the duty
free.
And let’s see whether the EU
has grown a spine — and really turbo-charge their Special
Purpose Vehicle (SPV) alternative payment network conceived after the
Trump administration ditched the JCPOA. Because more than breaking up Eurasia
integration and implementing neocon regime change, this is about the ultimate
anathema; Iran is being mercilessly punished because it has bypassed the U.S. dollar
on energy trade.
[Pepe Escobar, a veteran
Brazilian journalist, is the correspondent-at-large for Hong Kong-based Asia Times. His latest book is “2030.” Follow
him on Facebook.]
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