By Rob Kall
Black swan is the name of
Nassim Nicholas Taleb's best-selling book (millions sold) and it could be used
to describe Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's upset defeat of incumbent Democrat Joe
Crowley.
Taleb characterizes a black
swan event as having three characteristics:
The event is a surprise (to
the observer).
The event has a major effect.
After the first recorded
instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have
been expected; that is, the relevant data were available but unaccounted for in
risk mitigation programs. The same is true for the personal perception by
individuals.
For at least 1400 years black
swans were believed not to exist. The term "black swan" was used to
describe something non-existent. Then, a whole lot of them were discovered in
Australia.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb's hugely
successful book argues that black swan events often play major roles in
history, citing 9/11 and the invention of the internet as examples.
I believe it is reasonable to
characterize Ocasio-Cortez's win as a black swan event. That means that it
could play a major role in history. It could open the sluice gates to
Berniecrat victories and defeats of old-school Clinton DLC corporatist
Democrats.
Over the coming days, the
Pelosi-led powers that be will surely do as Taleb describes, and rationalize
this beautiful black swan event, just as early critics of the computer said it
could only be of interest to a handful of businesses.
Ocasio-Cortez, through her
victory has opened a door that could see throngs of victorious progressive
candidates swell through. Let's hope it happens soon enough, before the current
Democratic leaders destroy the opportunity for victory that Donald Trump and
his GOP sycophants have served up on a plate.
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