December 18 2019, 12:26 p.m.
LAST WEDNESDAY, over 300
demonstrators at COP25 in Madrid — this year’s 14-day U.N. climate talks, the
group’s longest ever — watched from the courtyard of a conference center as a
metal wall rose up seemingly out of nowhere, locking
civil society observers literally out in the cold. Moments earlier,
some had had their entry badges snatched off them by U.N. guards in skirmishes
outside the main plenary hall before they were cordoned off. Security prevented
them from speaking even to the press; all civil society observers had been
barred from entering the conference center. With access to the venue now
blocked, protesters marched out the back entrance, where they were greeted by
Spanish police.
The protest was intended to
call out the widespread lack of ambition coming from some of the world’s
biggest emitters of heat-trapping greenhouse gasses, calling on countries in
the “global north” to provide support for climate mitigation, adaptation, and
recovery, plus excise loopholes that would give polluters a way out to keep on
with business as usual. Demonstrators’ credentials were restored a few hours
later, but the talks had done little to address their concerns. By Saturday afternoon
— two days after talks were set to end — there was little agreement as to what
would come out of them. “There is no one issue that is completely resolved,”
Harjeet Singh, who leads up global climate work for ActionAid, told me. By the
end of the closing plenary the next day, most major issues had been punted to
future meetings. Even U.N. Secretary General António Guterres expressed his
dissatisfaction on Twitter.
“There is no doubt: rich
countries have been blocking progress across the board,” Singh said.
On that front, not much has
changed over the past decade. In 2009, the Copenhagen climate talks collapsed
when a small subset of predominantly wealthy countries presented a hastily
compiled three-page document that all but negated years of work by the
developing countries, demanding a decision with little time for
debate. The latter group refused.
This time around, a key
sticking point was over how much the U.S., as the world’s largest
historical emitter of fossil fuels, owes to the rest of the world, as
it prepares to leave the Paris Agreement. Many countries in the “global south”
will require financial and technical assistance in order not just to develop
decarbonized and resilient economies but to deal with those climate impacts
already happening and likely to accelerate, which many argue should come at
least in part from wealthier nations. But does the U.S. agree? Not so much.
At issue in Madrid and in the
demonstration that provoked last Wednesday’s lock-out is wealthy countries’
abdication of historical responsibility, both for the mess the planet now finds
itself in and for its crucial role in keeping things from getting infinitely
worse. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, which officially
governs the Paris Agreement, is clear on the “common but differentiated
responsibility” held by parties which are signed on to it. Wealthy countries,
that is, built their economies in large part through the burning of fossil
fuels. This development was also furnished by the use of land, labor, and
resources from what is today the less developed “global south,” including
several dozen former colonial holdings.
Cruelly, it’s those places
that are already being hammered by the impacts of fossil-fueled development in
the “global north”; climate equity advocates argue that larger economies which
have benefited from historical processes like colonialism and slavery have the
capacity to transition more quickly, and should allow countries and people that
have traditionally been exploited the time and capacity to catch up. Throughout
Democratic and Republican administrations, the United States’ team of career
State Department negotiators have spent years stymying calls for more
ambitious climate policy, coming most vocally from “global south” countries
already experiencing the climate emergency. Climate finance, in particular, has
been their bête noire.
“It’s clear that this is a bad
deal because of the obstruction of the U.S. and other Global North countries,”
says Sriram Madhusoodanan, deputy campaigns director for the watchdog group
Corporate Accountability International. “Throughout these talks they’ve
effectively been lighting the house on fire as they plan to walk out the door,”
referring to Donald Trump’s pledge to formally leave the Paris Agreement as
soon as he’s able to next year.
Who Will Shoulder the Weight?
Days before talks began, a
report from the U.N.
Environment Program noted the gap between countries’ existing
commitments under the Paris Agreement (“Intended Nationally Determined
Contributions,” or INDCs) and what it will take to stay within the “well below
2 degrees” Celsius threshold of warming its signatories committed to.
Existing INDCs will shoot temperatures up by 3.3 degrees, leaving major coastal
cities and some whole nations underwater and collapsing crop yields worldwide.
To get back on track for 1.5 degrees, per demands from the “global south,”
global emissions need to decline 7.6 percent each year between 2020 and 2030,
150 times greater than the largest single emissions drop in world history: the
collapse of the Soviet Union. Every year. For a decade. “Common but
differentiated” — per the UNFCCC — has generally been interpreted to mean this
burden should be shared somewhat equitably.
“You can’t really think of
fairness and equity as just another objective that it would be nice to try and
squeeze in if we can while we deal with this fantastically crazy emergency.
It’s actually something that we have to deal with if we want to have any hope
of dealing with the climate emergency,” says Sivan Kartha, senior scientist
with the Stockholm Environment Institute’s U.S. office. “At the end of the day,
it’s a global problem that will require long-term cooperation across vastly
different countries and people in terms of their contribution to the problem
and their ability to deal with the problem. The only way you can sustain that
kind of cooperation is if folks feel like it is fair.”
As of now, many don’t. The
U.S., often in league with other developed countries, has long tried to
sideline conversations about how much is owed to the “global south.” Alongside
industry pressure on lawmakers in Congress, that dispute was a key factor in
its refusal to implement the Kyoto Protocol in 2001. That agreement (which
still exists) established a system by which developed, carbon-intensive
countries (also called “Annex I” countries) were charged with making emissions
cuts. Under the new “bottom-up” system built by the Paris Agreement, all
countries are required to make INDCs and ratchet up those pledges every five
years, through what’s known as a global stocktake. The first of those will
happen next year, and developing nations have argued that they can’t raise
their goals without concrete support in funds, technology, and technical
support from rich countries, a red-line issue for the U.S.
“We view ambition as a
package, not as a one-way street. Ambition needs to improve mitigation,
adaptation and means of implementation. If you ask me to climb a mountain and I
don’t have the muscles to do that, you are asking the impossible,” Palestinian
Ambassador Ammar Hijazi, chair of the G77 and China group, said in a small
press briefing. “An electric car is still an expensive commodity,” he says by
way of example. “If I buy an electric car in Palestine, there are only 4 or 5
charging stations. Then I’m stuck with this car that doesn’t take me anywhere.”
Further complicating this is
the U.S.’s exit from the Paris Agreement, a document designed in no small part
to allay its concerns over Kyoto, that it placed an undue burden on developed
countries, a major reason, along with industry pressure, why it refused to
implement that treaty in 2001. Hijazi reasons that its leaving Paris amounts to
“asking countries to carry the U.S. on their shoulders,” picking up its slack
for reducing emissions generated here that now “nobody is held accountable
for.”
He also fears the U.S.
departure could have farther reaching repercussions, and is “undermining the
world order as we know it in terms of multilateralism, in solving our problems
in rooms instead of running after each other in the streets,” he said. “This is
where we shout and scream at each other, but we try to find solutions. We don’t
agree on everything, but this is how the world functions. If you start
withdrawing from one multilateral treaty after another because you don’t feel
that it suits you, countries will feel weary about contributing to this
process.”
Floated as the “ambition
COP” by the Chilean presidency team that oversaw this year’s proceedings,
these talks were partially intended to clarify what raising ambition will mean
in practice, impressing on countries the need to up their pledges next year on
the lead-up to and after 2020. Going into this year’s COP, just 80 countries
representing 10.5 percent of global emissions have committed to doing so,
though the European Union launched a new pledge on climate last week that has
already drawn
criticism. While countries with targets that stretch through 2025 will have
to present
new and improved plans, those with plans through 2030 can simply
“re-communicate” their initial pledges. The U.S. only has a 2025 target but is
scheduled to exit the Paris agreement before COP26. All other big non-U.S.
emitters have 2030 targets, so can just present what they already have.
Congressional Democrats who
visited COP25 in its first week, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, were
eager to distance themselves from Trump and reiterated their commitment to
Paris. Pelosi called the
climate crisis “the existential threat of our time,” noting the U.S.’s “moral
responsibility to help the world’s most vulnerable populations as we pass this
planet on to future generations.” The next week, she jammed through a trade
deal (the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) that doesn’t mention
climate change and allows the U.S. to expand the export of its emissions
abroad, an agreement Sierra Club trade expert Ben Beachy called “an
unabashed handout to Exxon and Chevron.”
One version of the text
introduced by the Chilean presidency to sort out this issue effectively scrapped any
mention of ambition, sparking outrage from civil society groups along with the
High Ambition Coalition, comprised of a mixture of developed and developing
countries. The Paris rulebook now “re-emphasizes
with serious concern the urgent need to address the significant gap” between
today’s pledges and what’s needed, and “urges parties to consider” that gap
should they choose not to increase their ambition and double down on existing
INDCs. On Sunday morning, the U.S. joined other prolific polluters in blocking
a nonbinding resolution encouraging more ambitious targets.
“It seems like there’s been a
complete disconnect,” Sara Shaw, international program coordinator for climate
justice and energy at Friends of the Earth International. At COP, she adds,
there are “amazing presentations on the latest science, looking at how much the
international climate regime is going to need to reduce emissions, but it
doesn’t feel like it penetrates into the actual discussion. Instead of being
driven by science, you see a situation where negotiations are really driven by
self-interest and politics. It’s kind of a race to the bottom. … If ordinary
people knew what went on here, they’d be absolutely horrified.”
Loss and Damage
Climate finance — broken down
into mitigation, adaptation, and “loss and damage” (funds for recovery from
climate impacts already happening) — has been one of the key North-South
dividing lines since UNFCCC talks began in the early 1990s. The U.S. has long
insisted that only mitigation and adaptation are worthy venues for
U.N.-coordinated funds, arguing that loss and damage should be handled
primarily either by national governments or aid groups like the Red Cross. With
the Warsaw International Mechanism — the pre-Paris vehicle for overseeing loss
and damage finance — up for review, many saw this COP as an opportunity to
resolve long-standing issues on loss and damage and clarify how funds can be
solicited and distributed.
The U.S. saw a different kind
of opening. Back when the Paris Agreement was being negotiated, Republicans in
Congress threatened to bring the deal to a vote if it included anything like a
binding commitment. The compromise struck was a short paragraph declaring “that
Article 8 of the Agreement” — the one that deals with finance — “does not
involve or provide a basis for any liability or compensation.” Less than a year
out from leaving Paris, U.S. negotiators tried using a debate over WIM
governance to extend that liability waiver to the entirety of the UNFCCC, which
it will remain a party to after leaving Paris. This would undermine the ability
of WIM to collect funds and will effectively reset tallies on who is
responsible for global emissions. U.S. negotiators didn’t get their wish, but
the issue will be up for debate again next year. They also pushed back hard on
any “bifurcation”
of responsibilities between developed and developing countries. On the
last day of talks, a representative from Tuvalu — among the most climate
vulnerable countries on earth — said that
the United States’ continual push to block financing for loss and damage “could
be considered a crime against humanity.”
Climate vulnerable countries
are already resorting to desperate measures to foot the bill for rising
temperatures. Without another pool of funds to draw on, Mozambique — already
mired in debt to Credit Suisse and Russia’s VTB Capital — was forced to take
out an $118
million IMF loan to recover from Cyclone Idai, which killed more than
1,000 people and caused billions of dollars worth of damage in April.
Widespread debt relief has been a key demand of groups pushing for more
equitable climate finance, but absent those changes and robust loss and damage
financing Mozambique and other countries may well be pressured into complying
with IMF demands on loan repayment that could make mitigation, adaptation and
recovery all the more difficult.
There were some modest
victories on the finance front in Madrid, including the creation of an expert
group on loss and damage, consensus to establish a “Santiago Network” for
coordination among countries on the issue, and the adoption of language urging
“the scaling-up of action and support” on loss and damage. Yet with lingering
questions about governance and no new commitments to deliver funds, there’s
still a long road ahead to any functional loss and damage system.
“We need to understand that we
are in a very desperate situation. We have seen how inaction over the last 10
years is piling up pressure on developing countries to deliver and carry the
burden of developed countries that kept dragging their feet,” Singh told The
Intercept, referring to the U.S. “On finance, across the board they have
weakened the text and they don’t want anything substantive to go forward.”
The Carbon Market
Though the U.S. will likely be
out of the Paris Agreement by the time lingering issues from COP25 are picked
back up in Glasgow next year, its continued membership in the UNFCCC will mean
that it could still continue to play a considerable role in the talks,
including on finance. And the world’s biggest polluting companies, who aren’t
going anywhere anytime soon, have been buzzing about this COP’s biggest ticket
item, still unresolved: the Paris Agreement’s expansive new carbon market.
Emissions trading systems like
the one Article 6 of the Paris Agreement outlines how countries can buy and
trade credits from others that have reduced their emissions already. When they
can’t meet reduction targets within their own borders, they can purchase
“offset” credits that theoretically correspond to emissions reductions
elsewhere. Just one piece of Article 6 — 6.8 — deals with nonmarket mechanisms,
and has yet to be fleshed out at much length. Barring significant changes,
carbon markets will remain the primary means through which countries
collaborate to reduce emissions.
Carbon trading has been hugely
controversial. Pushed actively in the U.N. by BP and the Environmental Defense
Fund in the 1990s — and in the Paris Agreement at least partially at
Shell’s urging — it has a questionable track record for curbing
pollution. Critics argue that it’s a danger to ecosystems, human rights, and
Indigenous sovereignty, with few if any upsides for the planet. Shortly after
the EU’s Emissions Trading System was set up in 2005, the price of carbon
credits trading within it collapsed and remained low until 2017, making it
cheap to pollute. The East Coast’s RGGI system is mostly a means of raising
revenue — not reducing emissions — and recent reporting from ProPublica shows
that emissions from sectors covered by California’s cap-and-trade system have
risen since its implementation in 2010. The Kyoto Protocol included a carbon
trading system known as the Clean Development Mechanism that has
been marred
by scandal, wherein companies could sell credits for producing and
destroying emissions they wouldn’t have produced otherwise.
Industry groups as well as
countries like Australia, India, and Brazil are now fighting to carry credits
from the Kyoto system into the Paris Agreement’s Article 6 implementation,
allowing them to count already existing credits — accounting for more than the
annual emissions of the EU — toward their emissions reductions.
Meanwhile, many Indigenous
advocates and civil society groups have argued that carbon markets should be
scrapped altogether, and are little more than money-making schemes for the
worst polluters. Both critics of carbon trading and those more friendly to
market mechanisms have pushed for the inclusion of more stringent environmental
and human rights standards in the text governing its implementation. They also
want to prevent double counting, whereby the purchaser of offset credits and
the country where the project takes place can each count the reductions it
produces. Brazil, other countries with right-wing governments, and lots of
offset projects have fought such reforms.
Fossil fuel interests are
looking to make sure they get a good deal out of Article 6, too. The UNFCCC has
never established a conflict of interest policy, and industry representatives
active on that and other issues — on observer badges like the ones given to
civil society representatives — enjoy broad access to countries’ negotiating
teams, with trade associations like the International Emissions Trading
Association hosting happy hours and back-to-back events at the “Business Hub”
pavilions it’s mounted for the last several years. IETA’s delegation to this
year’s talks was larger than the one sent by the EU, with 140 delegates.
“I will not blame the
process,” Singh, of ActionAid, says. “Some people made sure this process didn’t
deliver. They have just been looking at their own vested interest and
protecting their corporations. We do not have any alternate to this process.
It’s the blocking and obstructing that is not allowing all vulnerable countries
to have an equal say and space.”
The argument from industry and
allied countries, Madhusoodanan said, is that, “‘We cannot effectively
implement the Paris Agreement unless we have business along with us every step
of the way.’ And that’s fundamentally antithetical to the idea that some of
these corporations are here to advance very specific interests toward their
profits. … By the time decisions get to negotiations that observers can be
there for, there’s already been a lot coordination that’s happened behind
closed doors with these very powerful entities that serves to advance a
pro-corporate agenda.”
The open arms with which
corporations are welcomed stands in stark contrast to the treatment of civil
society this year, who, beyond being exiled en masse on Wednesday, had their
daily newsletters banned from circulation at the start of the COP, with the
UNFCCC placing restrictions on how many sheets of paper NGOs were allowed to
print. The talks relocation from Chile to Spain — a call made amid widespread
protests against Sebastián Piñera’s neoliberal government there — mounted
further barriers to participation.
Bert De Wel, climate policy
director for the International Trade Union Congress, says several union members
who planned to join the ITUC delegation — including many from Latin America —
were forced to stay home owing to travel costs and other difficulties.
“Especially the people that follow policy work on the ground in the unions tend
to fall out,” he says. “The bosses and leaders will find subsidies and
sponsorship to get there, but to have a workflow representation of people that
are much closer to that level of our work becomes much more complicated. … We
cannot afford fancy side events or pavilions.”
Over the weekend, developing
country representatives were kept out of
late night backroom negotiations where final texts were being discussed. And on
the last day, the final plenary was delayed because the UNFCCC wasn’t sure they
had the two-thirds quorum required to move forward. Several representatives
from developing nations lacked the funds to change their flights.
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