6 Jan 2018
The demonstrations that
took Iran and
the world by surprise remain undefined, leaderless and unprecedented in the mix
of messages and geographical locations. Yet they are extremely significant, as
they portray the depth of anger at the lack of economic and political progress
in the Islamic republic 39 years on.
President Hassan
Rouhani has taken four courageous steps over the past two years all of
which have infuriated the hardliners: Against all odds he completed the Iran
nuclear deal; stood up directly to the hardliners siding instead with the
reformists; took the recommendations of the International Monetary Fund and
implemented fiscal restraints policy; and finally took steps to tackle
high-level corruption.
Yet, none of these steps have
reached fruition and, as such, they have caused immense public resentment and
hardship.
Despite that, the thrust of
the political slogans at the protests were not directed at Rouhani. Initially
aimed against high prices, the anti-government protests quickly turned against
the regime as a whole and in an unprecedented level against the Supreme Leader
Ali Khamenei.
Last Saturday, December 30,
was the national day of "Alliance with the Supreme Leader". Instead,
the day turned into one of burning the flag of the Islamic republic and tearing
photos of Ayatollah Khamenei. Much anger was expressed at the clerical
establishment, its repressive measures at home and its political and financial
focus on Syria, Iraq and Palestine, rather than on the needs of the Iranians.
Encouraged by hardliners
Many blame the hardliners for
starting the protests in Mashhad.
And some hardline clerics were reportedly summoned to the
National Security Council and reprimanded.
Mashhad is the stronghold of
Rouhani's hardline rival, Ebrahim Raissi, who was the preferred candidate of
the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC). He is the chief custodian of the powerful
religious foundation Astan Ghods Razavi and as such holds the largest
pot of public funds. Together with his ultra-hardline father-in-law, Ayatollah Ahmad Alamalhoda, he is accused of having
turned Mashhad into a key location for opposing Rouhani and his policies.
Mashhad was also at the centre
of the high-profile fraud case of Padideh Shandiz Construction. The $35bn
fraud case which revealed unprecedented corruption at the highest levels dating
back to the hardline government of Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad. The chief executive of the firm was jailed in 2016. Investors
shares dropped drastically in value and there was no state-owned enterprise
control. Since then investors have regularly protested in Mashhad and Tehran.
Protests turn political
The surprise came only when
the protests spread to some 70 more remote towns and provincial cities where
police stations and security forces were directly targeted.
The slogans became overtly
anti-establishment: "Death to the Khamenei," "Down with the dictator,"
"Have shame, you mullah," "I don't want an Islamic
republic," and "O Shah, rest in peace," or "Let go of
Palestine, not Gaza, not Lebanon, I'd give my life [only] for Iran".
On January 5, the hardline
Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami hit back before Friday prayers in Tehran:
"The slogans chanted on
behalf of Trump and Netanyahu in the recent riots that said Neither Gaza, Nor
Lebanon are the voices of outsiders, and should be stifled".
IRGC chief Mohammad-Ali
Jaffari also blamed "the US, Zionists and Al Saud" for
acts of "sabotage and blasts".
This showed the regime's
nervous disposition after reports of joint efforts by the US, Israel and Saudi
Arabia for exerting pressure on Iran. And it was exasperated when both the US
president, Donald
Trump, and the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin
Netanyahu, praised "the brave demonstrators".
Scepticism increased when some
prominent Iranian figures such as the former crown prince, Reza
Pahlavi, and the Nobel laureate Shirin Ebadi asked the US to
increase pressure on Iran. Many wondered whether there was a foreign ulterior
motive to fan the flame of the protests.
Whoever started the protests
or fanned its flames with whatever ulterior motive, one thing is clear that the
public outcry against Islamic republic's repressive methods and the economic
malaise cannot be written off as a mere conspiracy, or whitewashed with mass
pro-regime demonstrations.
Iranians are frustrated by the
inability of the establishment to create any meaningful change whether at the
economic or political level. This was the third time Ayatollah Khamenei was
hearing the call for his downfall and it was stronger than 2009 and 2013.
And the establishment was
unusually apprehensive. IRGC said it had not been called to take action. Its
involvement was very limited. The Supreme Leader did not speak for five days.
The hardline Kayhan newspaper acknowledged: "the nation has risen in
protest," and the president promised to create more jobs and improve the
credit oversight.
The question now is whether
Rouhani can use the protests to his benefit and convince the supreme leader of
the need to implement the "major economic corrective surgery" to
which he referred to in his speech. This may be difficult while US sanctions hover over
Iran's economy. The hardliners are likely to put all the blame on the president
and push for the need to project a more military image of Iran to the
world.
Whatever the outcome, a new
benchmark has now been set for future protests and some past taboos have been
broken. They should be taken seriously.
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