Who would have imagined, even
a few months ago, that the Iowa caucus results would be so close?
BY Marc Daalder
There's no other possible
interpretation: Sen. Bernie Sanders pulled off an unprecedented upset in Iowa
last night.
He tied with his opponent
former Sec. of State Hillary Clinton, and the two split the 44 delegates almost
evenly between them (23-21). Clinton only managed to win 0.3 percent more
precincts than Sanders. Three days ago, the Des
Moines Register poll projected he would be defeated by three points—45-42.
This poll has traditionally
predicted results correctly, and yet was wrong for both parties this
year—projected Republican winner Donald Trump lost to Ted Cruz by four points.
Sanders’ upset is even more
notable when taken in the context of older polls. Surveys throughout the fall
of 2015 predicted a Clinton victory by margins as
high as 38 percent. In the summer, Clinton was expected to win by as much
as 43
percent. A year ago, in February 2015, MSNBC reported a project that
Clinton would win by 61 points, 68-7.
No one would have thought,
when Sanders announced his campaign in May, that the wild-haired,
self-proclaimed socialist would tie the former First Lady and Secretary of
State in Iowa.
These results are a colossal rebuke to a Democratic political establishment that has scheduled vital debates on weekends and during NFL playoff games, and poured more than $20 million in super PAC money into the election. They also represent a major win for progressives, showing that a genuine leftist candidate can be massively popular and pull an establishment candidate to the left.
These results are a colossal rebuke to a Democratic political establishment that has scheduled vital debates on weekends and during NFL playoff games, and poured more than $20 million in super PAC money into the election. They also represent a major win for progressives, showing that a genuine leftist candidate can be massively popular and pull an establishment candidate to the left.
The triumph for Bernie also comes as his campaign surges in other areas. Just days ago, his campaign announced they had breached a number of fundraising records. In January alone, they raised $20 million dollars, a record for his campaign. Sanders has received over 3.25 million donations from 1.3 million people, an unprecedented number at this stage of the electoral process. He has shocked every group of viewers, from political analysts to the mainstream media, with his success. Combined with the fact that Bernie is also projected to win by massive margins—as much as 31 percent—in New Hampshire, the next Democratic primary election, last night’s caucuses should force the political and media establishment to recognize him as a legitimate candidate.
The Iowa results should
catapult him even further on the national stage, increasing his visibility in
states where large numbers of voters still don’t even know who he is or what
policies he believes in.
But despite the coming victory
in New Hampshire, Sanders still faces an uphill battle. Most of these revolve
around elections in southern states, like the key
state of South Carolina. There, a large majority of the state’s black
population is throwing their considerable influence behind Hillary, who leads
in polls by an average of 29.5 points. Bernie needs to increase his name
recognition and appeal among voters of color in order to win primaries in the
South.
The issue of endorsements also
looms over the Sanders campaign. Hillary has a vast lead over Bernie in this
realm, with FiveThirtyEight granting her
465 “endorsement points” to his two. She has also fielded the endorsements
of a number of high-profile unions, including the American Federation of
Teachers, the United Food and Commercial Workers Union and the American
Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees. Bernie trails here as
well—the largest union that has endorsed him is the Communication Workers of
America, whose 700,000 members fall far short of Clinton’s numerous
multi-million member endorsements.
One of the most important
endorsements of the race could be that of the AFL-CIO, the nation’s largest
union federation. A number of AFL-CIO local and state branches have endorsed
Bernie, but they were rebuked
in July by President Richard Trumka for doing so, as such endorsements are
against the federation’s rules. The two Democratic campaigns are locked in a
tight battle for this endorsement, having both met with the union’s political
directors last week.
Sanders has a tough slog ahead
of him. But coming out of Iowa’s near-tie last night, his campaign looks
stronger than ever. An uncompromising democratic socialist climbed up from
single-digit Iowa poll numbers a year ago against one of the most powerful
politicians in America to a draw. Even as strong a member of the media
establishment as CNN’s Wolf Blitzer couldn’t call it any other way as the
returns rolled in last night: “Even if he comes in slightly, slightly second,
this is a huge win for Bernie Sanders.”
Marc Daalder is a writer and
student living in Massachusetts. He attends Amherst College, writes for the
student publication AC Voice, and spends his spare time tweeting, blogging and writing
fiction.
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