Sunday, April 12, 2020
The Ultimate Stress Test
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/176687/tomgram%3A_rajan_menon%2C_living_on_a_pandemic_planet/#more
The American World That Covid-19 Reveals
By Rajan Menon
The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV-2) virus, which causes Covid-19, seemed to emerge from deepest history, from the Black Death of the 14th century and the “Spanish Flu” of 1918. In just months, it has infected more than 1.5 million people and claimed more than 88,000 lives. The virus continues to spread almost everywhere. In no time at all, it’s shattered the global economy, sent it tumbling toward a deep recession (possibly even a depression), and left much of a planet locked indoors. Think of it as a gigantic stress test.
Doctors use stress tests to assess the physical fitness of patients. Governments use them to see whether banks have enough cash in reserve to honor their obligations to depositors and creditors in economic crises. The International Monetary Fund conducts stress tests on national financial systems. Now, like several other countries, notably Italy and Spain, the United States faces a different, far tougher stress test imposed by Covid-19. The early results are alarming.
Since the first infection in the U.S. came to light in the state of Washington on January 20th, the disease has spread across the country at a furious pace. Hospitals, especially in New York City, have been deluged and are already at the breaking point. And things will get worse -- and not just in New York. Yet the most basic necessities -- protective masks, gowns, rubber gloves, and ventilators -- are so scarce that they are being reused, further increasing the risk to healthcare workers, some of whom have already contracted Covid-19 from patients. The experiences of China, Italy, and other countries suggest that the disease will take the lives of many of these brave people; indeed, some here have already paid the ultimate price.
And this pandemic will subject our political system, economy, and society to a set of stress tests into the distant future.
The “Wartime President”
By mid-January, the news from China made it obvious that the virus would spread across borders and soon reach the United States. The sheer volume of travel between the two countries should have made that reality all too obvious. Nearly three million Chinese visitors came to this country in 2018 and 2.5 million Americans, counting only tourists, traveled to China. In fact, we now know that, in the weeks after Covid-19 was disclosed in Wuhan, China, more than 430,000 people flew here from that country, thousands of them from Wuhan itself -- and this continued even after Donald Trump put his much-vaunted travel measures in place. (“I do think we were very early, but I also think that we were very smart, because we stopped China,” he nonetheless claimed.)
In addition, President Trump and his team remained unruffled, never mind that the country wasn’t remotely prepared for what was clearly coming. Despite secret intelligence reports as early as January warning that Chinese leaders were understating the coronavirus threat’s severity, the administration failed to develop any kind of emergency plan to prepare for the pandemic.
That proved to be a monumental blunder. China confirmed its first coronavirus fatality on January 11th. An infection was first reported in Washington state barely a week later. More than a month after that, at a February 26th press conference, President Trump nonetheless dismissed the seriousness of the disease, noting that seasonal flu kills as many as 69,000 in the U.S. annually. He failed to mention that the virus may have a fatality rate up to 10 times higher than the flu and that a Covid-19 vaccine was nowhere in sight. Only 15 infections had been reported here, he claimed breezily, and “when you have fifteen people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.”
Close to zero? By mid-March, infections had risen to 1,200 (which soon would prove a drop in the pandemic bucket as "America First" acquired a new meaning). Yet the president called that number inconsequential. Presidential Medal of Freedom recipient Rush Limbaugh did him one better: “Yeah, I’m dead right on this. The coronavirus is the common cold, folks.” He accused the media of exaggerating “in an effort to get Trump.”
True to form, the president was quick to personalize the pandemic. He preened about how scientific experts marveled at his grasp of the complex details of virology and the way supposedly awestruck doctors asked, “How do you know so much?” The president’s self-effacing answer: natural ability, possibly even a genetically-derived aptitude, thanks to “a great, super-genius uncle” who’d worked at MIT.
He declared himself a “wartime president,” despite the lack of any evident strategy to vanquish this particular foe. His response when governors of hard-hit states began pleading for urgent help from the federal government: “Respirators, ventilators, all of the equipment -- try getting it yourselves.” The governors, he groused, were “complainers,” who should have stockpiled what they were now begging for. Thin-skinned as ever, he told Vice President Mike Pence that those like Governor Gretchen Whitmer, “the woman from Michigan,” who weren’t appreciative enough of his help didn’t even deserve to have their phone calls returned, at least by him. Inevitably, he had a Limbaugh-like conspiracy theory ready: fear-mongering Democrats were exploiting the Covid crisis to bash him. The virus, he said during a campaign rally -- yes, he was still holding them in late February -- was their “new hoax.” Fox News and the president’s base duly ran with this theme.
Despite the warning of epidemiologists that the virus’s transmission rate would skyrocket unless Americans were scrupulous about “social distancing,” Trump tarried (and to this day can’t keep his distance from anyone at his news conferences). He failed to use the presidential bully pulpit to disseminate this advice quickly.
Nor, despite an evident shortage of medical supplies and equipment, did he act decisively. The 1950 Defense Production Act (DPA) gives him the authority to order private companies to produce essential medical supplies and equipment, including ventilators, and then distribute them in ways that would prevent hard-hit states from outbidding each other. He rejected widespread calls to use the Act. “We’re not,” he quipped, “a country based on nationalizing our business. Call a person over in Venezuela. How did the nationalization of their businesses work out? Not too well.” Of course, no one had called for a government takeover of American companies. Trump did eventually invoke the DPA reluctantly in late March but has used it sparingly and ineffectively.
Continuing to downplay the Covid-19 threat, he declared during a March 31st Fox News “virtual town hall” on the coronavirus that he would love to have the economy up and running two weeks later on Easter Sunday with “packed churches all over the country.” That was, of course, a pipedream: by March 30th, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) had already reported more Covid-19 cases -- 140,904 -- here than in any other country and 2,405 deaths. (And yet, in early April, Trump was still talking about the need to fill sports stadiums “sooner rather than later”; the cure, he said, cannot “be worse than the problem itself.”)
As of April 11th, the CDC’s tally had risen to 492,416 infections and 18,559 fatalities, while John Hopkins University's tracking site reported 526,296 infections and 20,463 deaths (the highest numbers in the world in both categories). Physicians and public health specialists have, however, warned that the toll could already be much higher given the shortage of test kits. President Trump seemed finally to be grasping the gravity of the pandemic, thanks in part to the patient tutelage of specialists like Dr. Anthony Fauci, the long-time head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. But put this in your no-good-deed-goes-unpunished file: on social media, radio, and television, Fauci has been pilloried by Trump fans for supposedly undercutting the president or, as one acolyte tweeted, for trying to create a “Police State Like China in Order to Stop the coronavirus.” Fauci even started receiving death threats.
Unable to stay out of the limelight, Rudolph Giuliani, evidently seeking to displace Dr. Fauci as Trump’s top coronavirus expert, took to Twitter, practicing medicine without a license and touting the anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine as a sure-fire cure for the disease. This despite doctors’ warnings that the drug’s efficacy was unproven and that it could have fatal results, as well as the American Medical Association’s counsel that a rush to use it could lead to hoarding and reduce its availability for treating people with ailments for which it’s actually been approved. The president has followed Dr. Giuliani’s advice on hydroxychloroquine, repeatedly hailing it “the biggest game-changer in the history of medicine.”
At a March 29th press conference, Trump finally ditched his goal of restarting the economy by Easter and asked non-essential workers to stay home until the end of April, venturing outdoors only when essential. The Covid-19 death toll could, he now conceded, end up ranging between 100,000 and 240,000, a number, he asserted, that would only prove “we all, together, have done a very good job” given that he’d heard estimates of “up to 2.2 million deaths and maybe even beyond that” if the pandemic were not dealt with effectively here. Later, he allowed that even 240,000 deaths in the U.S. could be a low end figure. Then he again praised himself for taking decisive steps -- assumedly by denying for weeks that the virus was a massive problem, predicting that it would perish in the summer heat, and assuring Americans that you could, in any case, cure it with anti-malarial drugs, which he “may take” himself. Compared to two million possible deaths, 240,000 was, he boasted, “a very low number.” Give him credit for the math, at least: 240,000 is indeed a far lower figure than two million.
Economic Pain -- Acute, with More to Come
As the stock market plunged -- it had lost more than a third of its value by the end of March -- and it became undeniable that the fallout from the virus would cause the economy to crater, Congress passed a $2 trillion-plus Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) bill on March 27th, which the president signed within hours. The main provisions of that mammoth, nearly 900-page piece of legislation included:
* $1,200 to people with annual incomes below $75,000;
* $2,400 to those who file taxes jointly and earn less than $150,000;
* $500 per child for households with dependent children;
* 13 weeks of unemployment compensation beyond individual state government limits plus a weekly supplement of $600;
* a 50% payroll tax credit up to $10,000 for businesses that continued to pay non-working employees and whose revenues have shrunk by at least 50% compared to a year ago;
* loans to small businesses to help them cover the costs of employees’ salaries and health insurance;
* a $30.75 billion “Education Stabilization Fund,” providing various forms of economic assistance to hard-pressed students;
* six-month deferments on federal student loans and the suspension of penalties for overdue payments;
* $500 billion in loans and guarantees for corporations.
These were certainly much-needed moves and $2.2 trillion was hardly chump change. Still, the number of the unemployed may far exceed current expectations as the economy more or less shuts down. Some economists estimate that the gross domestic product could eventually shrink by a staggering 30%, with unemployment reaching at least 32%, or 47 million people, a figure that would surpass the 24.9% peak during the Great Depression of the 1930s. The CARES stimulus package, geared significantly to big banks and big corporations, may not suffice to meet the needs of an increasing number of jobless people. At least 6.6 million had filled unemployment claims by end of March alone. By early April, the number edged close to 17 million, and millions more will follow. And who knows how much of the $500 billion allotted to corporations will be devoted to protecting workers’ jobs and benefits when less than 10% percent of it has strings attached?
Furthermore, some of the measures in the CARES Act to help the jobless expire on July 30th and others at the end of the year, although it could take far longer to truly contain the virus. The government could pony up more money, but the bill itself has no renewal clause, which means that we could be in for another grim legislative battle. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has already stated that he’ll oppose rapid follow-on legislation until the effects of the current bill are known, lest Democrats “try to achieve unrelated policy items they would not be able to pass.”
The intricately linked global economic system has broken down in just a couple of months, so time isn’t on the side of the unemployed. In addition, the maximum duration of unemployment benefits varies strikingly by state. In North Carolina, it’s only 12 weeks; in Massachusetts, 30. Likewise, the maximum weekly amount paid ranges from $823 in Massachusetts to $235 in Mississippi. Unemployment insurance certainly helps, but the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities calculates that it averages just over $300 a week nationally, covering only 46.6% percent of a worker’s former earnings. Yet if Covid-19 leaves many millions without jobs well beyond July 30th, or perhaps even the end of the year, they will have to pay for food, rents or mortgages, and utility bills, to mention just a few of the basics.
Households with incomes in the bottom 20% will face a particularly hard struggle, to say nothing of the 38 million people already living in poverty. Monthly rent in 2018 averaged $1,450 and monthly food costs (not counting spending in restaurants) $363. The average savings of Americans -- excluding investments, retirement accounts, and homes -- totaled only $4,830 that year. Unsurprisingly, approximately 27% percent of them report that may not be able to cover even a month’s worth of basic expenses; another 25% say that they could hang on for three months. Then what? Already, laid-off low-wage workers, who could barely meet their basic expenses when they had jobs, have become desperate, while those still employed who work in restaurants and hotels hit hard by social distancing have seen their hours cut back and their tips diminished.
No one knows just how bad things could get, how many people will succumb to Covid-19, or what heights the jobless rate will reach, but of this much we can be certain: the virus’s wave hasn’t crested yet and may not for weeks, or even months. And because the United States lacks the strong social safety nets of European countries, people with meager savings will be especially vulnerable. Apart from the trauma of suddenly losing jobs, people filing unemployment claims have already been wearied by chronically busy phones and crashing websites as unemployment offices face a tsunami of a sort never previously imagined.
The Social Fabric Under Stress
The loss of a job doesn’t just create economic insecurity, it can also produce psychological stress and a diminished sense of self-worth. Covid-19 is likely to leave startling numbers of Americans feeling bereft. Social isolation may provide welcome solitude for a while (at least for those who can half-afford it). Before long, though, it will likely disorient people, particularly the elderly and those who are alone and cut off from friends and family, not to speak of exercise, eating out, or even trips to the local library. Zoom and Skype won’t, in the long run, qualify as the real deal. Well before Covid-19 made its appearance, the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) reported that a fifth of Americans already felt isolated and two out of five claimed to lack “meaningful” social networks.” Loneliness, the HRSA concluded, had become an “epidemic” -- and that was before an actual epidemic hit. Medical professionals concurred at the time. Imagine what they’d say now.
Among other things, the coronavirus experience will undoubtedly increase the risk of suicide (especially given the rush to purchase weaponry), already at epidemic levels. In 2017 alone, 47,000 Americans killed themselves. By then, suicide had already become the 10th leading cause of death in the United States, claiming more lives than homicides or motor vehicle accidents. The suicide rate has increased for the last 13 years straight. Among youth, it has jumped 56% in the past decade alone, among blue-collar workers by 40% in less than two decades. Sixty thousand veterans have died by their own hand since 2008, a suicide rate 1.5 times higher than for other adults.
By ratcheting up stress, dejection, and isolation, Covid-19 could also increase domestic violence, the neglect and mistreatment of children, and drug and alcohol abuse, especially among recovering addicts. Globally, the virus has also turbocharged demagogues, for whom the pandemic provides an opportunity to commit hate crimes and engage in scapegoating, racial tropes, and weird conspiracy theories, while using social media to whip up fear, suspicion, and animosity, and deepen social divisions. Admittedly, such problems can’t all be chalked up to the pandemic. Still, they could all get worse as this insidious virus continues to wreak havoc.
Now for the Good Part
Crises highlight and exacerbate a society’s problems, but they also put some of its best attributes on display. Covid-19 hasn’t been an exception. Doctors, nurses, hospital staff, and first responders knowingly endanger their lives daily to care for those sickened by the virus. By April, 25,000 healthcare workers from other parts of the country had converged on New York State, the pandemic’s epicenter, to help. Volunteers have mobilized nationwide to sew masks for hospital workers, stepping in where the government has failed. People have found ways to help elderly neighbors. Strangers have been engaging in acts of kindness and generosity toward one another -- an acknowledgement that we confront a shared problem that will consume much more than our livelihoods if we don’t stand together (social distancing aside). Civic groups, non-profit organizations, and companies are pitching in to help in a variety of ways. Governors -- Andrew Cuomo of New York, Mike DeWine of Ohio, Larry Hogan of Maryland, Gavin Newsom of California -- have been working tirelessly to protect their states, showing that not all parts of the political system are as dysfunctional as Washington, D.C., today.
At some point, we’ll emerge into a different world. What it will be like no one can yet know. Covid-19 has certainly created much despair but reasons for gratitude and admiration as well -- something to keep in mind as this terrible stress test continues without letup.
Saudi Arabia Violates its Own Ceasefire As Yemen Announces First Cases of Coronavirus
Peter Castagno
April 11, 2020
https://citizentruth.org/saudi-arabia-violates-its-own-ceasefire-as-yemen-announces-first-cases-of-coronavirus/
The Saudi regime has engaged in a number of questionable activities since the global outbreak of COVID-19, including moving masses of African refugees deported from areas with coronavirus to the Yemeni border.
(By: Ahmed Abdulkareem, Mintpress News) Thursday proved to be a tragic day for internally displaced people in the Al-Mazraq Refugee Camp in Yemen’s northern Hajjah Province. The camp lies on the outskirts of Haradh city near the Yemen-Saudi border.
Residents of the camp were shocked by the sound of huge explosions and aircraft buzzing overhead, especially as news had just reached the camp that Saudi Arabia had announced a ceasefire in Yemen amid a coronavirus outbreak ravaging members of its monarchy. By the end of the day, it was clear that the Saudi military was behind the attacks. It had launched an operation aimed at capturing a customs port in Haradh, just 20 kilometers away from the refugee camp.
Even after repeated calls by the United Nations to halt the war in Yemen in order to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), Saudi Arabia continued operations in the country unabated. On Wednesday night, however, the Kingdom finally announced that it was halting military operations in order to “avoid a potential outbreak.” Despite the public announcement, by Thursday morning, the Kingdom had launched its campaign in Haradh.
Saudi Coalition spokesman Col. Turki al-Malki claimed that Saudi Arabia was suspending military operations in order to “support of UN efforts to end its five-year war and avoid a potential outbreak of the new coronavirus.” The Coalition has made no mention of lifting its blockade on the country in order to allow medical aid or supplies to enter.
“The move was aimed at creating favorable conditions for a UN-supervised meeting to pave the way for a permanent ceasefire in Yemen,” Maliki said in a statement released by the official Saudi Press Agency. The spokesman claimed the ceasefire would go into effect on Thursday and last for two weeks. The move, which is renewable, “is an opportunity to reach a comprehensive and lasting cease-fire in Yemen,” according to Maliki.
Shortly after the ceasefire was announced, Saudi Coalition jets struck several civilian targets in Sa’ada, Amran, al-Bayda, Hajjah, and Jawf. Moreover, new military operations supported by American military advisors began in several areas near the Saudi-Yemen border. This included the attacks on the Haradh customs port as well as airstrikes in Rasha Asir and Al-Baqa’a in Najran.
Saudi Arabia’s announcement of a ceasefire, which it violated almost immediately, is not without precedent. In January 2016, the Saudi-led coalition announced it would no longer observe a ceasefire that it had announced on December 15 in the midst of UN-brokered talks aimed at ending the war.
Ansar Allah, the political wing of Yemen’s Houthi movement, the primary force fighting to repel Saudi forces from Yemen, downplayed the Saudi ceasefire announcement, describing it as a maneuver, tactical step and an attempt to evade responsibility for the consequences of the spread of COVID-19.
Mohammed AbdulSalam, the spokesman for Ansar Allah, said on Thursday that the Saudi initiative is a political and media maneuver and has multiple aims, including improving the “stained and bloody” image of Saudi Arabia and trying to thwart negotiations between the United Nations and Ansar Allah to end the war on Yemen.
Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a senior member of Ansar Allah’s Political Bureau, said that the Saudi initiative does not express a conviction for peace, but is simply a tactical move. Al-Bukhaiti urged Riyadh to use the outbreak of COVID-19 as an opportunity for a genuine ceasefire and a face-saving exit from the Yemen war.
Ansar Allah, like most Yemenis, believes that any truce that does not involve lifting the blockade imposed in 2016 would be a continuation of the Saudi war. That blockade has effectively handcuffed Yemeni authorities from managing the coronavirus threat. In fact, just one after the blockade, at least 60 percent of Yemen’s health facilities had closed for good and those that remained operational lacked specialists, essential equipment, and medicine as they were unable to restock due to the blockade.
Furthermore, a host of epidemics such as diphtheria, cholera, dengue fever, swine flu, and malaria are already sweeping refugee camps, making it nearly impossible for people to effectively face the coming coronavirus pandemic. “To us, if even Saudi stops the war, it is time to dig our graves and wait quietly for death,” a 35-year-old refugee in the Al-Mazraq Refugee Camp told MintPress.
Coronavirus officially hits Yemen
The first official coronavirus cases in Yemen were confirmed in Hadhramout two days ago. The World Health Organisation (WHO) and Save the Children have both warned of an impending explosion of coronavirus cases in the country. Xavier Joubert, the Country Director for Save the Children in Yemen said:
Today, the first case of Covid-19 was confirmed in Yemen. This is a moment we all feared, and were hoping to avoid, because Yemen is critically under-equipped to face this virus. Only half of Yemen’s health facilities are still fully functional. There are 700 intensive care unit beds, including 60 for children, and 500 ventilators for a population of about 30 million.
Dr. Taha al- Mutwakel, head of the Sana’a-based Ministry of Health and Population told members of the Yemeni parliament, “if COVID-19 spreads in Yemen it will kill at least 500,000 people.” He added, “The oxygen plants were destroyed, there are only 1,000 beds across the country and 400 ventilators.”
Waiting quietly for death
Given how quickly the virus is spreading around the world, COVID-19 will almost certainly gain a foothold in Yemen, especially ravaging refugees already suffering from compromised immune systems. According to the Ministry of Health, the virus will affect 90 percent of the population and will be especially deadly to those living in refugee camps.
Most Yemenis do not have the luxury of buy cleaning tools and sterilizers or calling epidemiological centers when they’re sick. Even washing their hands with clean water can prove challenging, let alone practicing social distancing. In the Al-Mazraq Refugee Camp, multiple families are often forced to share the same utensils, bathrooms, cooking supplies, and tents and the camps’ residents often struggle with underlying health conditions like malnutrition and cholera, making them even more vulnerable to the virus.
Even outside the camps, the intensive care that COVID-19 patients need when they develop acute respiratory distress syndrome is virtually nonexistent in Yemen. While the World Health Organization has provided 30 “heat testing devices” to the country, they require officials to confirm cases before they will send aid, according to the Secretary-General of the National Council for the Administration and Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Sana’a.
Weaponizing the virus
To make matters worse, Saudi Arabia has engaged in a number of questionable practices that have Yemeni citizens fearing the Kingdom is intentionally trying to expedite the spread of COVID-19.
In Wadi Al-Dhamd, a valley that straddles the border between Yemen and Saudi Arabia and connects directly to Yemen’s district of Al-Raqaw, the Saudi regime has relocated hundreds of African refugees deported from the Kingdom. Citizen cell phone video shows masses gathering in the area in a move Yemenis fear could be an attempt to spark a COVID-19 outbreak among the refugee population in order to spread it to local residents according to authorities in Sadaa.
Al-Raqaw is dotted with refugee camps inhabited by thousands of migrants from Ethiopia and Somalia that were deported from Saudi Arabia. They often pay Yemeni smugglers to transport them to large cities in the country in hopes of fleeing life in crowded refugee camps. Many of the African migrants are believed to have been deported from areas of Saudi Arabia where the coronavirus is spreading. Since the COVID-19 pandemic began, the Saudi regime has also expelled thousands of Yemeni workers.
Dr. Hussein Maqbouli, the Head of the Sana’a-based Higher Ministerial Committee for Epidemic Control, told a local TV news channel Thursday night that only 76 quarantine centers had been set up across Yemen’s 12 provinces. He noted that 400 people are still arriving every day at the Afar Port in Al-Beidha Province, a total of 12,000 per month. This, at a time when most countries have suspended inbound flights in an effort to contain the pandemic. The Saudi coalition has near complete control of Yemen’s airspace.
Officials in Sana’a have warned against the continual deportation of Yemenis from Saudi Arabia into Yemen and the Coalition’s continued flights into the city of Aden without observing any quarantine measures. They say that moves fit into a framework of Coalition plans to introduce the virus into Yemen. Mohsen Tawoos, the Secretary General of the National Council for the Administration and Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, want as far as to say that Saudi Arabia in intentionally deporting those affected by COVID-19 to Yemen.
Math misconceptions may lead people to underestimate the true threat of COVID-19
April 8, 2020 8.14am EDT
https://theconversation.com/math-misconceptions-may-lead-people-to-underestimate-the-true-threat-of-covid-19-134520
People all across the U.S. claim that they are “not math people.” They even readily admit to their hatred for some math fundamentals, such as fractions. For instance, a participant in one of our research studies on how well adults understand fractions proclaimed: “Fractions are my worst nightmare!”
Could people’s fear and avoidance of math, and their common mathematical mistakes in school, also lead to misunderstandings in the real world about just how dangerous COVID-19 is to their own health and to society in general?
We are psychology scholars, and two of us – Clarissa Thompson and Pooja Sidney – are experts in the field of mathematical cognition. It is our job to investigate how people of all ages learn about math. We also identify good and bad strategies that people often use when they try to solve hard math problems. Based on these observations, we have come up with several ways to help everyone gain more insight into how math works.
One very common misconception we’re concerned about is known as “whole number bias.” Based on headlines and news accounts about the novel coronavirus, we wonder if this bias might lead people to underestimate their own and others’ risks associated with COVID-19.
Breaking down the numbers
Fractions are made up of two parts: the numerator – for instance, the 3 in the fraction ¾ – and the the denominator – for instance, the 4 in the fraction ¾. Another way to think about this fraction is: “of 4 parts, 3.”
Whole number bias happens when people tend to automatically think about the numerators and denominators of fractions as whole numbers before they process the numbers more deeply to grasp their actual size.
For example, people may mistakenly believe that 1/14 is smaller than 1/15 because 14 is less than 15. That is, they apply what they know about whole numbers to all other numbers, including fractions.
Research has shown that people of all ages can harbor whole number bias – children, college students and even some expert mathematicians.
In one study, community college students were shown a series of two fractions at a time and asked to decide which was larger. In some of these pairs of fractions, the larger one had a bigger numerator but a smaller denominator. So, if shown the two fractions 3/7 and 2/9, the students who answered that 3/7 was larger were correct.
Only 54% of the students who took part in the study answered correctly.
When asked how they decided which fraction was larger, many students said they paid attention to one part of the fraction in isolation, rather than considering the entire ratio. Those who incorrectly answered that 2/9 was larger than 3/7 did so because they compared only the denominators and concluded that 9 was bigger than 7.
That’s because whole number bias – which can manifest as considering only one part of a ratio in isolation – leads to incorrect conclusions about how big numbers are.
Solutions start in school
Why does this matter? Students learn about fractions in school so they can apply this knowledge to the real world.
In daily life, people are presented with numbers, including fractions, and asked to make sense of them. When it comes to health statistics, misinterpreting the size of numbers may lead to negative consequences – such as underestimating the deadliness of COVID-19.
News stories are rife with complex statistics that pertain to the COVID-19 pandemic. Many of these statistics involve ratios, which are hard to understand and disliked.
Further, math anxiety – a feeling of apprehension when it comes to mathematics – leads people to choose to completely avoid, or fail to think deeply about, numbers encountered in everyday life. In our own research across two samples of adults, we found that people with more anxiety about doing math were worse at estimating how big specific fractions were.
Early on in the COVID-19 pandemic, there were several stories that noted that the flu was more deadly than the new coronavirus. President Donald Trump himself made this claim several times.
We believe this confusion persists as the nation struggles to come to terms with calls for more social distancing and orders to stay home to fight the spread of COVID-19. Specifically, the number of deaths or the number of infections of COVID-19 compared to the flu might be mentioned in isolation, rather than the proportion of deaths out of the total population. We believe focusing on total numbers of deaths or numbers of infected people rather than proportions – or fractions – is a reflection of whole number bias.
In another recent example, President Donald Trump claimed that the U.S. tested more people for COVID-19 than anywhere else in the world. While this could be true in terms of absolute numbers, this does not take into consideration population totals and how densely packed the population is in other countries.
Calculating the risk
How big of a risk do we all face?
To figure this out, we believe you should compare the number of COVID-19 deaths to the total number of people infected. Both of these numbers are updated daily by a team of researchers at Johns Hopkins University.
Then, compare this fatality rate with the fatality rates of more familiar illnesses, such as the flu as updated by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Comparing fatality rates
If you want to try to calculate how deadly this pandemic is compared with the flu, you need to divide the number of deaths caused by COVID-19 by the total number of people infected by it. Keep in mind, it’s impossible to know the true denominator, or the total number of infected individuals, in the midst of a pandemic because these numbers change daily, and testing is limited.
We are basing these fatality estimates on data as of April 2. Based on the most up-to-date statistics from Johns Hopkins, the fatality rate for COVID-19 is 5% – 49,236 divided by 965,246 equals 5%. Currently, the flu fatality rate according to the CDC is 0.1% (62,000 divided by 54,000,000 equals 0.1%). Take a moment to digest these calculations. As of the end of March 2020, the fatality rate for COVID-19 is 50 times greater than the fatality rate for the flu – a drastic difference, but one that may change over time as more data become available.
Because of these unknowns, the fatality rate could ultimately be lower than early figures because so many infected people were not immediately tested or officially diagnosed. While it may be too early to tell exactly how much deadlier than the flu COVID-19 will be, some current estimates suggest COVID-19 may be closer to 10 times more deadly. It’s important to note that researchers around the world have found a broad range of estimates for the fatality rate for COVID-19, which remains unclear.
To reduce whole number bias, we recommend that everyone consider whether both the numerator and denominator of a fraction have been reported, or whether one or the other was presented in isolation. This can help people avoid making a whole number bias error.
With the need to make all people take this pandemic seriously, we believe that doing this math right just might save lives.
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