Monday, February 10, 2020
Will You Catch the Coronavirus?
According to a recent computer-model forecast, the novel coronavirus is likely to become a global pandemic. This is a coronavirus that has never been seen in humans before. It probably came from bats, and it is much more serious than the coronavirus that causes the common cold. This latest coronavirus comes from the same family as SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) and MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome). The novel (new) coronavirus—formally known as 2019 nCoV—is spread through droplets, in face to face encounters within six feet or less. The incubation period is up to two weeks. Symptoms include fever, cough, and difficulty breathing, which may lead to pneumonia.
At the time of this writing, the reported death toll in China is approaching one thousand, surpassing that of the deadly SARS outbreak nearly twenty years ago. But the actual number of deaths in China could be higher than the reported number. Many physicians believe that infections and deaths in China are higher than reports indicate, because Chinese hospitals and laboratories are already overwhelmed.
Worldwide, there are now numerous confirmed cases of coronavirus in people who have not been to China or had any contact with people from China. Victims are both male and female, and of all ages (including at least one newborn). Already in China, gymnasiums, conference centers, and stadiums have been turned into make-shift fever camps with cots lined up by the thousands. But the virus has now even killed the brave doctor who warned the world it was coming, Dr. Li Wenliang.
Experts are not optimistic that the virus can be contained, and warn that a full-blown pandemic may be coming in less than two months. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic (H1N1 virus) killed at least fifty million people worldwide.
Unfortunately, there is no vaccine for the novel coronavirus, and there is no specific therapy. But scientists at multiple organizations—including the National Institutes of Health—are now working to develop a vaccine for the novel coronavirus. Because this will take time, it is crucial limit the spread of infection through quarantine of infected individuals and through tracing their contacts. Preventing and containing this disease is vital.
Use the precautions that you would use to avoid catching a cold. Viruses that cause colds live on surfaces of doorknobs and on handrails, so handwashing remains the best protection against the illness. Wash your hands for at least twenty seconds with soap and warm water, and use alcohol-based hand sanitizers. If you develop flu-like symptoms, notify your doctor immediately.
Surgical facemasks are also effective, if you can get them. Unfortunately, there is already a global shortage of facemasks, as demand has increased dramatically due to fear of infection. Like the virus, fear spreads quickly too. The CDC provides updated information as soon as it is available. For updates, visit https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html.
Scientists expect these types of outbreaks to occur at irregular intervals in the foreseeable future. This means that in order to prevent pandemics, we must improve monitoring by healthcare professionals of humans worldwide. Moreover, we must allocate funding to allow scientists to detect and to evaluate potential threats from viruses. To this end, global cooperation will be needed to develop new vaccine approaches that will be deployed immediately upon the outbreak of any new virus. Currently however, our global measures are not only uncoordinated, they are also mostly reactive, in that research and development only occur after an outbreak. Instead of this, we need a more proactive approach supported by adequate and continuous funding.
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