DEC 16, 2019
Emmanuel Macron was born
nearly a decade after the 1968 protests and strikes that shook France more than
a half-century ago, threatening the presidency of Charles de Gaulle and
bringing the country to a halt, but the 41-year-old president’s first few years
in office have been highly reminiscent of that turbulent period in French
history.
Since becoming president two
and a half years ago, the country has been plagued by social unrest and
historic protests, starting with the yellow vest (gilets jaunes) movement that
erupted over a year ago, and continuing last week with a massive
national strike. At least 800,000 people took
to the streets across France Dec. 5 to protest the president’s plan to
overhaul the country’s pension system, which could push up the retirement age
and reduce benefits for millions of French public workers. The strikes have
since continued, and on Wednesday, the government officially
introduced its plan, leading French unions to call for more strikes. It has
been the country’s biggest week of demonstrations since Macron became
president, and it comes after more than a year of steady yellow vest protests
against the president’s neoliberal economic policies.
The yellow vest movement,
which began in October 2018, has caused some of the worst
social unrest in Paris since 1968, and has continued far longer than the
protests that shook the nation 50 years ago. The past week’s strikes have been
even more disruptive, especially to the economy, shutting down trains, flights,
schools and museums.
Halfway through his five-year
term, Macron, who was billed as the great liberal bulwark against the rising
tide of right-wing populism back in 2017, has managed to revive the great
protest tradition in France. He also has made it increasingly likely that his
2017 opponent, the far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen, will come back stronger
and even more powerful over the next few years. A French
public opinion survey published last month, for example, revealed that
Le Pen is gaining in the polls as Macron bleeds support. In the poll, Le Pen is
projected to win the first round of the 2022 election, and though Macron still
wins easily in the second round, he is down from 66% in 2017 to 55%, while Le
Pen is up from 34% to 45%.
Commenting on the poll, Arnaud
Montebourg—Macron’s predecessor as finance minister under Francois Hollande’s
government—remarked
that two years of “Macronism” had already boosted Le Pen by 11 points,
and “with a little more effort, Mr Macron will pave the way for a Le Pen
victory.” The president “isn’t a rampart against the RN [Le Pen’s National
Rally party],” he said, but “a propeller for the RN.”
This trend was rather
predictable, and many on the left did
in fact predict what is currently transpiring under Macron. Though he
ran as an outsider candidate in 2017, creating his own party and promising a
new and innovative approach to governing that would transform France into a “startup nation” (as if
he could run the government like a startup), it was easy to see that he
represented continuity over change. Most French voters recognized this, but
grudgingly voted for the lesser of two evils. Like the two front-runners in the
2016 American election, Macron and Le Pen were both widely disliked, resulting
in the lowest
voter turnout in almost 50 years. Macron’s victory was hardly a triumph
over far-right populism, as so many centrists and liberals were eager to
believe just a few months after Trump’s devastating win in the United States.
In just a few years Macron has
shown us exactly how not to combat right-wing populism and
nationalism. Earlier this year, Le Pen’s RN came
in first in the European Parliament elections, ahead of Macron’s
centrist party, with the highest turnout for the European elections in France
in decades. Now, as protests and strikes continue to erupt, the far-right
leader will attempt to exploit popular anger to benefit her own agenda. And
with a president like Macron, who shows arrogant disdain in the face of any
criticism, Le Pen will have the perfect foil for her right-wing populist
narrative.
In America, Democrats should
be paying close attention to what is happening in France, especially with an
election coming up against our own right-wing demagogue. If there is any
presidential candidate in the Democratic primaries who most resembles Macron,
it is South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who, if successful, would be
around the same age as the French president was when he was elected in 2017.
Like Macron, Buttigieg is fawned over by the press for his precocious
intelligence, and the 37-year-old presents himself as an outsider as he
recycles the same old centrist talking points. While Macron studied at France’s
elite École nationale and started his career as an investment banker for
Rothschild & Co., Buttigieg went to Harvard before cutting his teeth at
McKinsey & Company. And like the startup president, Buttigieg is popular
with tech billionaires and is Silicon
Valley’s favorite candidate.
When Macron won in 2017, many
American liberals said that Democrats needed their own version of Macron, and
Buttigieg seems to fit the bill. But Democrats should be careful what they wish
for. The current chaos in France is showing no signs of letting up, and with
only 27% of French citizens expressing trust in Macron, according
to a poll taken shortly before the Dec. 5 strike, the young president
seems to be feeding the populist beast rather than taming it.
The strikes are set
to continue indefinitely, and with a president who sees himself as the CEO
of a startup corporation rather than a servant of the people, things will
likely get worse before they get any better. For liberals watching from across
the Atlantic, the lesson should be clear.
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