The Yemeni Shiite group’s
spectacular attack on Abqaiq raises the distinct possibility of a push to drive
the House of Saud from power
PEPE ESCOBAR
We are the Houthis and we’re
coming to town. With the spectacular attack on Abqaiq, Yemen’s Houthis have
overturned the geopolitical chessboard in Southwest Asia – going as far as
introducing a whole new dimension: the distinct possibility of investing in a
push to drive the House of Saud out of power.
Blowback is a bitch. Houthis –
Zaidi Shiites from northern Yemen – and Wahhabis have been at each other’s
throats for ages. This book is absolutely essential to understand the
mind-boggling complexity of Houthi tribes; as a bonus, it places the turmoil in
southern Arabian lands way beyond a mere Iran-Saudi proxy war.
Still, it’s always important
to consider that Arab Shiites in the Eastern province – working in Saudi oil
installations – have got to be natural allies of the Houthis fighting against
Riyadh.
Houthi striking capability –
from drone swarms to ballistic missile attacks – has been improving remarkably
for the past year or so. It’s not by accident that the UAE saw which way the
geopolitical and geoeconomic winds were blowing: Abu Dhabi withdrew from Crown
Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s vicious war against Yemen and now is engaged in
what it describes as a “peace-first” strategy.
Even before Abqaiq, the
Houthis had already engineered quite a few attacks against Saudi oil
installations as well as Dubai and Abu Dhabi airports. In early July, Yemen’s
Operations Command Center staged an exhibition in full regalia in Sana’a
featuring their whole range of ballistic
and winged missiles and drones.
The situation has now reached
a point where there’s plenty of chatter across the Persian Gulf about a
spectacular scenario: the Houthis investing in a mad dash across the Arabian
desert to capture Mecca and Medina in conjunction with a mass Shiite uprising
in the Eastern oil belt. That’s not far-fetched anymore. Stranger things have
happened in the Middle East. After all, the Saudis can’t even win a bar brawl –
that’s why they rely on mercenaries.
Orientalism strikes again
The US intel refrain that the
Houthis are incapable of such a sophisticated attack betrays the worst strands
of orientalism and white man’s burden/superiority complex.
The only missile parts shown
by the Saudis so far come from a Yemeni Quds 1 cruise missile. According to
Brigadier General Yahya Saree, spokesman for the Sana’a-based Yemeni Armed
Forces, “the Quds system proved its great ability to hit its targets and
to bypass enemy interceptor systems.”
Houthi armed forces duly claimed responsibility for Abqaiq: “This operation is
one of the largest operations carried out by our forces in the depth of Saudi
Arabia, and came after an accurate intelligence operation and advance
monitoring and cooperation of honorable and free men within the Kingdom.”
Notice the key concept:
“cooperation” from inside Saudi Arabia – which could include the whole spectrum
from Yemenis to that Eastern province Shiites.
Even more relevant is the fact
that massive American hardware deployed in Saudi Arabia inside out and outside
in – satellites, AWACS, Patriot missiles, drones, battleships, jet fighters –
didn’t see a thing, or certainly not in time. The sighting of three
“loitering” drones by a Kuwaiti bird hunter arguably heading towards Saudi
Arabia is being invoked as “evidence”. Cue to the embarrassing picture of a drone
swarm – wherever it came from – flying undisturbed for hours over Saudi
territory.
UN officials openly admit that
now everything that matters is within the 1,500 km range of the Houthis’ new
UAV-X drone: oil fields in Saudi Arabia, a still-under-construction nuclear
power plant in the Emirates and Dubai’s mega-airport.
My conversations with sources
in Tehran over the past two years have ascertained that the Houthis’ new drones
and missiles are essentially copies of Iranian designs assembled in Yemen
itself with crucial help from Hezbollah engineers.
US intel insists that 17
drones and cruise missiles were launched in combination from southern Iran. In
theory, Patriot radar would have picked that up and knocked the drones/missiles
from the sky. So far, absolutely no record of this trajectory has been
revealed. Military experts generally agree that the radar on the Patriot
missile is good, but its success
rate is “disputed” – to say the least. What’s important, once again,
is that the Houthis do have advanced offensive missiles. And their pinpoint
accuracy at Abqaiq was uncanny.
For now, it appears that the
winner of the US/UK-supported House of One Saudi war on the civilian Yemeni
population, which started in March 2015 and generated a humanitarian crisis the
UN regards as having been of biblical proportions, is certainly not the crown
prince, widely known as MBS.
Listen to the general
Crude oil stabilization towers
– several of them – at Abqaiq were specifically targeted, along with natural
gas storage tanks. Persian Gulf energy sources have been telling me repairs
and/or rebuilding could last months. Even Riyadh admitted as
much.
Blindly blaming Iran, with no
evidence, does not cut it. Tehran can count on swarms of top strategic
thinkers. They do not need or want to blow up Southwest Asia, which is
something they could do, by the way: Revolutionary Guards generals have already
said many times on the record that they are ready for war.
Professor Mohammad Marandi
from the University of Tehran, who has very close relations with the Foreign
Ministry, is adamant: “It didn’t come from Iran. If it did, it would be very
embarrassing for the Americans, showing they are unable to detect a large
number of Iranian drones and missiles. That doesn’t make sense.”
Marandi additionally stresses,
“Saudi air defenses are not equipped to defend the country from Yemen but from
Iran. The Yemenis have been striking against the Saudis, they are getting
better and better, developing drone and missile technology for four and a half
years, and this was a very soft target.”
A soft – and unprotected –
target: the US PAC-2 and PAC-3 systems in place are all oriented towards the
east, in the direction of Iran. Neither Washington nor Riyadh knows for sure
where the drone swarm/missiles really came from.
Readers should pay close
attention to this groundbreaking interview with General Amir Ali
Hajizadeh, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace
Force. The interview, in Farsi (with English subtitles), was conducted by
US-sanctioned Iranian intellectual Nader Talebzadeh and includes questions
forwarded by my US analyst friends Phil Giraldi and Michael Maloof and myself.
Explaining Iranian self-sufficiency
in its defense capabilities, Hajizadeh sounds like a very rational actor. The
bottom line: “Our view is that neither American politicians nor our officials
want a war. If an incident like the one with the drone [the RQ-4N shot down by
Iran in June] happens or a misunderstanding happens, and that develops into a
larger war, that’s a different matter. Therefore we are always ready for a big
war.”
In response to one of my
questions, on what message the Revolutionary Guards want to convey, especially to
the US, Hajizadeh does not mince his words: “In addition to the US bases in
various regions like Afghanistan, Iraq, Kuwait, Emirates and Qatar, we have
targeted all naval vessels up to a distance of 2,000 kilometers and we are
constantly monitoring them. They think that if they go to a distance of 400 km,
they are out of our firing range. Wherever they are, it only takes one spark,
we hit their vessels, their airbases, their troops.”
Get your S-400s or else
On the energy front, Tehran
has been playing a very precise game under pressure – selling loads of oil by
turning off the transponders of their tankers as they leave Iran and
transferring the oil at sea, tanker to tanker, at night, and relabeling their
cargo as originating at other producers for a price. I have been checking
this for weeks with my trusted Persian Gulf traders – and they all confirm it.
Iran could go on doing it forever.
Of course, the Trump
administration knows it. But the fact is they are looking the other way. To
state it as concisely as possible: they are caught in a trap by the absolute
folly of ditching the JCPOA, and they are looking for a face-saving way out.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned the administration in so many words:
the US should return to the agreement it reneged on before it’s too late.
And now for the really
hair-raising part.
The strike at Abqaiq shows
that the entire Middle East production of over 18 million barrels of oil a day
– including Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia – can be easily
knocked out. There is zero adequate defense against these drones and missiles.
Well, there’s always Russia.
Here’s what happened at the
press conference after the Ankara summit this week on Syria, uniting Presidents
Putin, Rouhani and Erdogan.
Question: Will Russia provide
Saudi Arabia with any help or support in restoring its infrastructure?
President Putin: As for
assisting Saudi Arabia, it is also written in the Quran that violence of any
kind is illegitimate except when protecting one’s people. In order to protect
them and the country, we are ready to provide the necessary assistance to Saudi
Arabia. All the political leaders of Saudi Arabia have to do is take a wise
decision, as Iran did by buying the S-300 missile system, and as President
Recep Tayyip Erdogan did when he bought Russia’s latest S-400 Triumph
anti-aircraft system. They would offer reliable protection for any Saudi
infrastructure facilities.
President Hassan Rouhani: So
do they need to buy the S-300 or the S-400?
President Vladimir Putin: It
is up to them to decide [laughs].
In The Transformation of
War, Martin van Creveld actually predicted that the whole
industrial-military-security complex would come crumbling down when it was
exposed that most of its weapons are useless against fourth-generation
asymmetrical opponents. There’s no question the whole Global South is watching
– and will have gotten the message.
Hybrid war, reloaded
Now we are entering a whole
new dimension in asymmetric hybrid war.
In the – horrendous – event
that Washington would decide to attack Iran, egged on by the usual neocon
suspects, the Pentagon could never hope to hit and disable all the Iranian
and/or Yemeni drones. The US could expect, for sure, all-out war. And then no ships
would sail through the Strait of Hormuz. We all know the consequences of that.
Which brings us to The Big
Surprise. The real reason there would be no ships traversing the Strait of
Hormuz is that there would be no oil in the Gulf left to pump. The oil fields,
having been bombed, would be burning.
So we’re back to the realistic
bottom line, which has been stressed by not only Moscow and Beijing but also
Paris and Berlin: US President Donald Trump gambled big time, and he lost. Now
he must find a face-saving way out. If the War Party allows it.