Thursday, May 16, 2019

Amount of carbon stored in forests reduced as climate warms











May 15, 2019

University of Cambridge

Accelerated tree growth caused by a warming climate does not necessarily translate into enhanced carbon storage, an international study suggests.




Accelerated tree growth caused by a warming climate does not necessarily translate into enhanced carbon storage, an international study suggests.

The team, led by the University of Cambridge, found that as temperatures increase, trees grow faster, but they also tend to die younger. When these fast-growing trees die, the carbon they store is returned to the carbon cycle.

The results, reported in the journal Nature Communications, have implications for global carbon cycle dynamics. As the Earth's climate continues to warm, tree growth will continue to accelerate, but the length of time that trees store carbon, the so-called carbon residence time, will diminish.

During photosynthesis, trees and other plants absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and use it to build new cells. Long-lived trees, such as pines from high elevations and other conifers found across the high-northern latitude boreal forests, can store carbon for many centuries.

"As the planet warms, it causes plants to grow faster, so the thinking is that planting more trees will lead to more carbon getting removed from the atmosphere," said Professor Ulf Büntgen from Cambridge's Department of Geography, the study's lead author. "But that's only half of the story. The other half is one that hasn't been considered: that these fast-growing trees are holding carbon for shorter periods of time."

Büntgen uses the information contained in tree rings to study past climate conditions. Tree rings are as distinctive as fingerprints: the width, density and anatomy of each annual ring contains information about what the climate was like during that particular year. By taking core samples from living trees and disc samples of dead trees, researchers are able to reconstruct how the Earth's climate system behaved in the past and understand how ecosystems were, and are, responding to temperature variation.

For the current study, Büntgen and his collaborators from Germany, Spain, Switzerland and Russia, sampled more than 1100 living and dead mountain pines from the Spanish Pyrenees and 660 Siberian larch samples from the Russian Altai: both high-elevation forest sites that have been undisturbed for thousands of years. Using these samples, the researchers were able to reconstruct the total lifespan and juvenile growth rates of trees that were growing during both industrial and pre-industrial climate conditions.

The researchers found that harsh, cold conditions cause tree growth to slow, but they also make trees stronger, so that they can live to a great age. Conversely, trees growing faster during their first 25 years die much sooner than their slow-growing relatives. This negative relationship remained statistically significant for samples from both living and dead trees in both regions.

The idea of a carbon residence time was first hypothesised by co-author Christian Körner, Emeritus Professor at the University of Basel, but this is the first time that it has been confirmed by data.

The relationship between growth rate and lifespan is analogous to the relationship between heart rate and lifespan seen in the animal kingdom: animals with quicker heart rates tend to grow faster but have shorter lives on average.

"We wanted to test the 'live fast, die young' hypothesis, and we've found that for trees in cold climates, it appears to be true," said Büntgen. "We're challenging some long-held assumptions in this area, which have implications for large-scale carbon cycle dynamics."



Story Source:

Materials provided by University of Cambridge. The original story is licensed under a Creative Commons License. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.


Journal Reference:

Ulf Büntgen, Paul J. Krusic, Alma Piermattei, David A. Coomes, Jan Esper, Vladimir S. Myglan, Alexander V. Kirdyanov, J. Julio Camarero, Alan Crivellaro, Christian Körner. Limited capacity of tree growth to mitigate the global greenhouse effect under predicted warming. Nature Communications, 2019; 10 (1) DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-10174-4




























All indicators point to slowdown in US economy


























Despite a strong headline GDP number for Q1, every important measure points to a continued slowdown starting last year






By DAVID P. GOLDMAN





President Trump Wednesday postponed a decision on a 25% automobile import tariff, and US equities gained back a bit of the ground they had lost in Monday’s route. Oil prices ignored drone attacks on a Saudi pipeline from Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Neither the trade war nor a Middle East war is likely to upset markets in the next couple of weeks. After equity investors showed the White House the instruments of torture, the ebullient US president is likely to weigh his next tweets more carefully. To paraphrase Sigmund Freud, hysterical misery has given way to ordinary unhappiness, in particular, the unhappiness of a slowing US economy.

I do not know whether the White House has wrapped its mind around the deteriorating economic situation. President Trump continues to quote the headline 1st quarter growth number of 3.2%, although the pallid 1.2% growth rate of final domestic sales is far more indicative of the state of the economy (and consistent with all the other data).

Every important parameter shows the same pattern: A big rise during the “Trump Bump” of 2017 and early 2018 followed by a slowdown in late 2018 and the first months of 2019.

The US reported drops in retail sales and industrial production Wednesday morning, disappointing analysts who predicted modest increases. Shown in the chart below are month data (left-hand scale) and the 3-month rolling average (right-hand scale). The 3-month average shows an annualized gain of 1%; with the Consumer Price Index rising at more than 2% a year, this denotes a contraction in real terms.



 
That may seem odd given the strong hiring data, but it really isn’t. Adjusted for a fall in the number of hours worked, the growth rate of actual work done in the United States has fallen sharply. And, as I reported previously, that fall mirrors the decline in the National Association of Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing.


 

The decline in the industrial production index for manufacturing tracks (and in fact is predicted by) declines in the volume of US freight traffic as reported by CASS:



 
A slowing economy isn’t good news for US equities, apart from the risk of further political shocks. The bond market is telling us that economic conditions are weak, with the 2-year Treasury yield falling to just 2.17% from an early November peak of just below 3%. The yield on 10-year inflation-protected Treasuries fell from 1.16% to just 0.53% during the same period.

With interest rates falling, it’s not surprising that utilities and consumer staples have outperformed the rest of the US market during the past 30 days:


 

My strongest recommendation of the past month, financials, came in third. That’s a strong result, given that financials like higher interest rates. I still recommend US (but not European) financials as a core portfolio holding. They act as a hedge against higher interest rates and offer a reasonable yield.

A combination of ultra-conservative US equities (including real estate) and Chinese stocks seems a good portfolio blend.












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