Friday, February 22, 2019

Anti-semitism is cover for a much deeper divide in Britain's Labour party














Breakaway MPs hope that smearing Corbyn will obscure the fact that they are remnants of an old political order bankrupt of ideas




The announcement by seven MPs from the UK Labour Party on Monday that they were breaking away and creating a new parliamentary faction marked the biggest internal upheaval in a British political party in nearly 40 years, when the SDP split from Labour.

On Wednesday, they were joined by an eighth Labour MP, Joan Ryan, and three Conservative MPs. There are predictions more will follow.

With the UK teetering on the brink of crashing out of the European Union with no deal on Brexit, the founders of the so-called Independent Group made reference to their opposition to Brexit.  

The chief concern cited for the split by the eight Labour MPs, though, was a supposed “anti-semitism crisis” in the party. 

The breakaway faction seemingly agrees that anti-semitism has become so endemic in the party since Jeremy Corbyn became leader more than three years ago that they were left with no choice but to quit.

Corbyn, it should be noted, is the first leader of a major British party to explicitly prioritise the rights of Palestinians over Israel’s continuing belligerent occupation of the Palestinian territories. 

‘Sickeningly racist’?

Luciana Berger, a Jewish MP who has highlighted what she sees as an anti-semitism problem under Corbyn, led the charge, stating at the Independent Group’s launch that she had reached “the sickening conclusion” that Labour was “institutionally racist”.

She and her allies claim she has been hounded out of the party by “anti-semitic bullying”. Berger has suffered online abuse and death threats from a young neo-Nazi who was jailed for two years in 2016. There have been other incidences of abuse and other sentences, including a 27-month jail term for John Nimmo, a right-wing extremist who referred to Berger as "Jewish scum" and signed his messages, "your friend, the Nazi". 

In an interview with the Jewish Chronicle, the former Labour MP said the Independent Group would provide the Jewish community with a “political homethat they, like much of the rest of the country, are now looking for”.

In a plea to keep the party together, deputy leader Tom Watson issued a video in which he criticised his own party for being too slow to tackle anti-semitism. The situation “poses a test” for Labour, he said, adding: “Do we respond with simple condemnation, or do we try and reach out beyond our comfort zone and prevent others from following?”

Ruth Smeeth, another Jewish Labour MP who may yet join a later wave of departures, was reported to have broken down in tears at a parliamentary party meeting following the split, as she called for tougher action on anti-semitism. 

Two days later, as she split from Labour, Ryan accused the party of being “infected with the scourge of anti-Jewish racism”.

Hatred claims undercut

The timing of the defections was strange, occurring shortly after the Labour leadership revealed the findings of an investigation into complaints of anti-semitism in the party. These were the very complaints that MPs such as Berger have been citing as proof of the party’s “institutional racism”. 

And yet, the report decisively undercut their claims – not only of endemic anti-semitism in Labour, but of any significant problem at all. 

That echoed an earlier report by the Commons home affairs committee, which found there was “no reliable, empirical evidence” that Labour had more of an anti-semitism problem than any other British political party. 


Nonetheless, the facts seem to be playing little or no part in influencing the anti-semitism narrative. This latest report was thus almost entirely ignored by Corbyn’s opponents and by the mainstream media.

It is, therefore, worth briefly examining what the Labour Party’s investigation discovered.

Over the previous 10 months, 673 complaints had been filed against Labour members over alleged anti-semitic behaviour, many based on online comments. In a third of those cases, insufficient evidence had been produced. 

The 453 other allegations represented 0.08 percent of the 540,000-strong Labour membership. Hardly “endemic” or “institutional”, it seems.

Intemperate language

There is the possibility past outbursts have been part of this investigation. Intemperate language flared especially in 2014 – before Corbyn became leader – when Israel launched a military operation on Gaza that killed large numbers of Palestinian civilians, including many hundreds of children.

Certainly, it is unclear how many of those reportedly anti-semitic comments concern not prejudice towards Jews, but rather outspoken criticism of the state of Israel, which was redefined as anti-semitic last year by Labour, under severe pressure from MPs such as Berger and Ryan and Jewish lobby groups, such as the Board of Deputies and the Jewish Labour Movement.

Seven of the 11 examples of anti-semitism associated with the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance’s definition adopted by Labour concern Israel. That includes describing Israel as a “racist endeavour”, even though Israel passed a basic law last year stripping the fifth of its population who are not Jewish of any right to self-determination, formally creating two classes of citizen. 

Illustrating the problem Labour has created for itself as a result, some of the most high-profile suspensions and expulsions have actually targeted Jewish members of the party who identify as anti-Zionist – that is, they consider Israel a racist state. They include Tony Greenstein, Jackie Walker, Martin Odoni, Glyn Secker and Cyril Chilson.

Another Jewish member, Moshe Machover, a professor emeritus at the University of London, had to be reinstated after a huge outcry among members at his treatment by the party.

Unthinking prejudice

Alan Maddison, who has been conducting statistical research on anti-semitism for a pro-Corbyn Jewish group, Jewish Voice for Labour, put the 0.08 percent figure into its wider social and political context this week. 

He quoted the findings of a large survey of anti-semitic attitudes published by the Institute for Jewish Policy Research in 2017. It found that 30 percent of respondents from various walks of society agreed with one or more of eight anti-semitic views, ranging from stereotypes such as “Jews think they are better than other people” to Holocaust denial.

However, lead researcher Daniel Staetsky concluded that in most cases, this was evidence of unthinking prejudice rather than conscious bigotry. Four-fifths of those who exhibited a degree of anti-semitism also agreed with at least one positive statement about Jewish people. 

This appears to be the main problem among the tiny number of Labour Party members identified in complaints, and is reflected in the predominance of warnings about conduct rather than expulsions and suspensions. 

Far-right bigotry

Another of the institute’s findings poses a particular problem for Corbyn’s opponents, who argue that the Labour leader has imported anti-semitism into the party by attracting the “hard left”. Since he was elected, Labour membership has rocketed.

Even if it were true that Corbyn and his supporters are on the far-left – a highly questionable assumption, made superficially plausible only because Labour moved to the centre-right under Tony Blair in the late 1990s – the institute’s research pulls the rug out from under Corbyn’s critics.

It discovered that across the political spectrum, conscious hatred of Jews was very low, and that it was exhibited in equal measure from the “very left-wing” to the “fairly right-wing”. The only exception, as one might expect, was on the “very right-wing”, where virulent anti-semitism was much more prevalent.

That finding was confirmed last week by surveys that showed a significant rise in violent, anti-semitic attacks across Europe as far-right parties make inroads in many member states. A Guardian report noted that the “figures show an overwhelming majority of violence against Jews is perpetrated by far-right supporters”. 

Supporters of overseas war

So what is the basis for concerns about the Labour Party being mired in supposed “institutional anti-semitism” since it moved from the centre to the left under Corbyn, when the figures and political trends demonstrate nothing of the sort? 

A clue may be found in the wider political worldview of the eight MPs who have broken from Labour.

All but two are listed as supporters of the parliamentary “Labour Friends of Israel” (LFI) faction. Further, Berger is a former director of that staunchly pro-Israel lobby group, and Ryan is its current chair, a position the group says she will hold onto, despite no longer being a Labour MP. 

So extreme are the LFI’s views on Israel that it sought to exonerate Israel of a massacre last year, in which its snipers shot dead many dozens of unarmed Palestinian demonstrators in Gaza in a single day. Faced with a social media backlash, it quietly took down the posts

The eight MPs’ voting records – except for Gavin Shuker, for whom the picture is mixed – show them holding consistently hawkish foreign policy positions that are deeply antithetical to Corbyn’s approach to international relations. 

They either “almost always” or “generally” backed “combat operations overseas”; those who were MPs at the time supported the 2003 Iraq war; and they all opposed subsequent investigations into the Iraq war.

Committed Friends of Israel

In one sense, the breakaway group’s support for Labour Friends of Israel may not be surprising, and indicates why Corbyn is facing such widespread trouble from within his own party. Dozens of Labour MPs are members of the group, including Tom Watson and Ruth Smeeth.  

Smeeth, one of those at the forefront of accusing Corbyn of fostering anti-semitism in Labour, is also a former public affairs director of BICOM, another stridently pro-Israel lobby group

None of these MPs were concerned enough with the LFI’s continuing vocal support for Israel as it has shifted to the far-right under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to have stepped down from the group. 


‘Wrong kind of Jews’

Anti-semitism has taken centre stage in the manoeuvring against Corbyn, despite there being no evidence of significant hatred against Jews in the party. Increasingly, it seems, tangible abuse of Jews is of little interest unless it can be related to Corbyn.

The markedly selective interest in anti-semitism in the Corbyn context among the breakaway MPs and supposed anti-semitism watchdogs has been starkly on show for some time.

Notably, none expressed concern at the media mauling of a left-wing, satirical Jewish group called Jewdas when Corbyn was widely attacked for meeting “the wrong kind of Jews”. In fact, leading Labour figures, including the Jewish Labour Movement, joined in the abuse.

And increasingly in this febrile atmosphere, there has been an ever-greater indulgence of the “right kind of anti-semitism” – when it is directed at Corbyn supporters. 

A troubling illustration was provided on the TV show Good Morning Britain this week, when Tom Bower was invited on to discuss his new unauthorised biography of Corbyn, in which he accuses him of anti-semitism. The hosts looked on demurely as Bower, a Jewish journalist, defamed fellow Jewish journalist Michael Segalov as a “self-hating Jew” for defending Corbyn on the show.

Revenge of the Blairites

So what is the significance of the fact that the Labour MPs who have been most outspoken in criticising Corbyn – those who helped organise a 2016 leadership challenge against him, and those who are now rumoured to be considering joining the breakaway faction – are heavily represented on the list of MPs supporting LFI? 

For them, it seems, vigorous support for Israel is not only a key foreign policy matter, but a marker of their political priorities and worldview – one that starkly clashes with the views of Corbyn and a majority of the Labour membership. 

Anti-semitism has turned out to be the most useful – and damaging – weapon to wield against the Labour leader for a variety of reasons close to the hearts of the holdouts from the Blair era, who still dominate the parliamentary party and parts of the Labour bureaucracy.

Perhaps most obviously, the Blairite wing of the party is still primarily loyal to a notion that Britain should at all costs maintain its transatlantic alliance with the United States in foreign policy matters. Israel is a key issue for those on both sides of the Atlantic who see that state as a projection of Western power into the oil-rich Middle East and romanticise Israel as a guarantor of Western values in a “barbaric” region. 

Corbyn’s prioritising of Palestinian rights threatens to overturn a core imperial value to which the Blairites cling.

Tarred and feathered

But it goes further. Anti-semitism has become a useful stand-in for the deep differences in a domestic political culture between the Blairites, on one hand, and Corbyn and the wider membership, on the other.

A focus on anti-semitism avoids the right-wing MPs having to admit much wider grievances with Corbyn’s Labour that would probably play far less well not only with Labour members, but with the broader British electorate. 

As well as their enthusiasm for foreign wars, the Blairites support the enrichment of a narrow neo-liberal elite, are ambivalent about austerity policies, and are reticent at returning key utilities to public ownership. All of this can be neatly evaded and veiled by talking up anti-semitism.

But the utility of anti-semitism as a weapon with which to beat Corbyn and his supporters – however unfairly – runs deeper still. 

The Blairites view allegations of anti-Jewish racism as a trump card. Calling someone an anti-semite rapidly closes down all debate and rational thought. It isolates, then tars and feathers its targets. No one wants to be seen to be associated with an anti-semite, let alone defend them.

Weak hand exposed

That is one reason why anti-semitism smears have been so maliciously effective against anti-Zionist Jews in the party and used with barely a murmur of protest – or in most cases, even recognition that Jews are being suspended and expelled for opposing Israel’s racist policies towards Palestinians. 

This is a revival of the vile “self-hating Jew” trope that Israel and its defenders concocted decades ago to intimidate Jewish critics. 

The Blairites in Labour, joined by the ruling Conservative Party, the mainstream media and pro-Israel lobby groups, have selected anti-semitism as the terrain on which to try to destroy a Corbyn-led Labour Party, because it is a battlefield in which the left stands no hope of getting a fair hearing – or any hearing at all. 

But paradoxically, the Labour breakaway group may have inadvertently exposed the weakness of its hand. The eight MPs have indicated that they will not run in by-elections, and for good reason: it is highly unlikely they would stand a chance of winning in any of their current constituencies outside the Labour Party.

Their decision will also spur moves to begin deselecting those Labour MPs who are openly trying to sabotage the party – and the members’ wishes – from within. 

That may finally lead to a clearing out of the parliamentary baggage left behind from the Blair era, and allow Labour to begin rebuilding itself as a party ready to deal with the political, social, economic and environmental challenges of the 21st century.





































Maduro shuts Venezuela's border with Brazil amid aid standoff













Maduro calls opposition leader Guaido's aid caravan a 'provocation', says he may close border with Colombia as well.






President Nicolas Maduro said Venezuela would shut its border with Brazil on Thursday "until further notice" amid a tense standoff with US-backed opposition leader Juan Guaido over allowing in humanitarian aid.

Maduro said he was also considering a "total closure of the border with Colombia" where he has already ordered the military to barricade a major border bridge to prevent aid from entering the country from Cucuta, Colombia, where supplies are being stockpiled, most of it from the United States

In a televised address, Maduro called the aid a "provocation" and "child's game", suggesting the aid is a precursor for a US military intervention in the oil-rich, but economically crippled Latin American country.

"[The US] aimed to generate a huge national mess, but they didn't succeed. The country wants peace," he said, surrounded by members of the military.

The border with Brazil - which along with Colombia is one of the main potential avenues for aid delivery - would be "completely and absolutely" closed from 8pm (00:00 GMT) until further notice, Maduro said. 



#EnVivo | Videoconferencia con el Estado Mayor Superior de la #FANB y los Comandantes de las REDI, para verificar el apresto operacional de todas las unidades militares de la Patria. https://www.pscp.tv/w/1RDGlqNEWbmJL 



In a decree, the Venezuelan military said it was also banning vessels from sailing out of Venezuela's ports until Sunday to avoid actions by "criminal" groups.

Later on Thursday, Brazilian presidential spokesman Otavio Rego Barros said his country was going ahead humanitarian aid airlifts for Venezuela despite Maduro's announcement. 

He said the non-perishable food and medicine would be stockpiled in the Brazilian border town of Pacaraima until Venezuelan opposition leader Guaido was able to send trucks to pick up the aid. 

'It's rolling'

Meanwhile, Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido set out on Thursday to personally collect US-supplied food and medicine stockpiled in Colombia.


Guaido has set a Saturday deadline for the aid to be allowed into Venezuela. He said he aims to rally a million volunteers to start bringing to those in need.

"Confirmed - it's rolling," a spokesman for Guaido said on Thursday, referring to the collection operation announced Wednesday by Guaido.

"We know that the regime is going to put all obstacles to prevent us from reaching the border, but nothing is stopping us, we are going to continue," said opposition politician Yanet Fermin.

Maduro has ordered a shipment of thousands of food boxes to be distributed to Venezuelans along the Colombian border. 

Food Minister Luis Medina Ramirez said on Twitter that 20,600 boxes of food from the government's long-running subsidised food distribution programme left for the Colombian border area from the port of La Guaira.


A video posted on the minister's account showed 11 container trucks exiting the port near Caracas.


"This is the real humanitarian aid of Venezuela," Ramirez said. 


























Russia Warns It Will Immediately Respond If Missiles Are Moved In Europe











https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7TneMnBf6cQ























































Putin warns US with new missiles aimed at Western capitals










Moscow will retaliate in kind if US deploys new missiles in Europe, Russian president says as he addresses the nation.





Russia's President Vladimir Putin warned the United States against deploying new missiles in Europe, threatening to retaliate in kind by targeting Western capitals with his own new weaponry.

Delivering a state of the nation address, Putin said the US abandoned a key arms control pact - the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty - to free its hands to build new missiles and tried to shift the blame for the move on Russia.

Many analysts say abandoning the treaty effectively signalled the start of a new arms race.

The longtime Russian leader warned Washington against deploying any new missiles in Europe following the collapse of the key Cold War-era treaty, saying Moscow would consider it a "serious threat".

"I'm saying this clearly and openly, Russia will be forced to deploy weapons that can be used... against the decision-making centres that are behind the missile systems which threaten us," Putin said.

"The capability of such weapons, including the time to reach those centres, will be equivalent to the threats against Russia."

He did not say what specific new weapons Moscow could deploy, but he reported quick progress on an array of new systems presented a year ago.

The INF deal was signed in 1987 by then US president Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and resolved a crisis over Soviet nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles targeting Western capitals.

New arms

Putin said the first batch of Avangard hypersonic glide vehicles will be deployed this year.

He added the tests of the new Sarmat heavy intercontinental ballistic missile, the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile and the Poseidon nuclear-powered underwater drone have been progressing successfully.

The first submarine equipped to carry the Poseidon will be commissioned later this year, Putin reported.

He also announced the coming deployment of the new Zircon hypersonic missile for the Russian navy, saying it's capable of flying at nine times the speed of sound and will have a range of 1,000km.

He said the Zircon programme will not be too costly as the missile has been designed to equip Russia's existing surface ships and submarines.

While issuing a tough warning to the US, Putin also said Russia still wants friendly relations with Washington and remains open to arms control talks.

"We don't want confrontation, particularly with such a global power as the US," he said.

The US has accused Russia of breaching the INF treaty by deploying a cruise missile that violates its limits - accusations Moscow rejected.

The INF treaty banned the production, testing and deployment of land-based cruise and ballistic missiles with a range of 500km to 5,500km.

The intermediate-range weapons were seen as particularly destabilising as they take less time to reach their targets compared with the intercontinental ballistic missiles.

That would leave practically no time for decision-makers, raising the likelihood of a global nuclear conflict over a false launch warning.

'Unacceptable' threats

The US State Department said Washington was not developing "exotic new nuclear weapons delivery systems" and repeated its claim that Russia violates the INF treaty while the United States does not.

"President Putin's remarks are a continuation of Russia's propaganda effort to avoid responsibility for Russia's actions in violation of the INF Treaty," added a State Department spokeswoman on condition of anonymity.

NATO on Wednesday condemned Putin's "unacceptable" threats.

"Russian statements threatening to target Allies are unacceptable. We call on Russia to focus on returning to compliance with the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty," NATO deputy spokesman, Piers Cazalet, said in a statement.


"NATO is a defensive alliance, which stands ready to defend all members against any threat. We do not want a new arms race, and allies have repeatedly called on Russia to verifiably destroy its intermediate-range missiles."


NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg has said several times in recent weeks that the alliance would not deploy any new land-based nuclear weapons in response to the Russian missiles.

Internal audience

Putin's tough talk on missiles seemed aimed at stirring up patriotic support for the 66-year-old leader, who won re-election last year with more than 76 percent of the vote but has been recently struggling with dropping poll numbers.

A survey by Russia's independent Levada Centre released in January found his approval rating at 64 percent - a figure many Western leaders could only dream of, but Putin's lowest in five years.


Most of Wednesday's speech focused on promises to address poor living standards, a key source of frustration for many Russians nearly 20 years after Putin came to power.

"We cannot wait, the situation must change for the better now," Putin told assembled legislators from Russia's lower house State Duma and upper house Federation Council.

"Within this year, [Russians] should feel changes," he said.

Putin lamented about 19 million Russians were living below the poverty line, saying: "This is too much ... The state should help."

He focused, in particular, on help for Russian families, pointing to a demographic crisis that has seen birth rates fall drastically since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union.

Last year, the government's statistics agency said the country's birth rate had fallen by 11 percent in 2017 to the lowest level in a decade.

"The incomes of Russian families should of course rise," he said, promising new child benefits and lower taxes for larger families.
























New Cuban Missile Crisis? Bring it on says Russia's Putin









Russian leader continues to issue warnings saying he doesn't want a missile crisis but ready to act if provoked by US.








Russia's military is ready for its own "Cuban Missile Crisis" if the United States is foolish enough to want one and Moscow has the edge when it comes to a nuclear-first attack, President Vladimir Putin said.

Putin's comments, made to Russian media late on Wednesday, follow his warning that Moscow would match any US move to deploy new missiles closer to Russia by targeting Western capitals with faster missiles of its own.

The Cuban Missile Crisis erupted in 1962 when Moscow responded to a US missile deployment in Turkey by sending ballistic missiles to Cuba - 150km from the US - sparking a standoff that brought the world to the brink of nuclear war.

More than five decades on, tensions are rising again over Russian fears the US might deploy intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe as a landmark Cold War-era arms control treaty unravels.

Relations between Moscow and Washington were strained, Putin said, but tensions were not yet comparable to those of the Cuban Missile Crisis.

"They [tensions] are not a reason to ratchet up confrontation to the levels of the Cuban Missile Crisis in the 1960s. In any case, that's not what we want," said Russia's president. "[But] if someone wants that, well OK they are welcome."

Putin said Russia could deploy hypersonic missiles on ships and submarines, which could lurk outside US territorial waters if Washington moved to deploy new nuclear weapons in Europe.


"[We're talking about] naval delivery vehicles: submarines or surface ships. And we can put them, given the speed and range [of our missiles] ... in neutral waters. Plus they are not stationary, they move and they will have to find them," Putin said, according to a Kremlin transcript.

"You work it out. Mach nine [the speed of the missiles] and over 1,000km [their range]."

Treaty violations

The US State Department dismissed Putin's earlier warning as propaganda, saying it was designed to divert attention from what Washington alleges was Moscow's violations of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.

The pact, which banned Russia and the US from stationing short- and intermediate-range, land-based missiles in Europe, is in its death throes, raising the prospect of a new arms race.

Putin has said he does not want an arms race with the US but he would have no choice but to act if Washington deployed new missiles in Europe, some of which he says would be able to attack Moscow within 10-12 minutes.

Putin said his naval response to such a move would mean Russia could attack the US faster than US missiles could hit Moscow.

"It [the calculation] would not be in their favour, at least as things stand today. That's for sure," said Putin.

Bark bigger than bite?

Despite Putin's boasts of military prowess, Russia's armed forces are not as capable or modern as its annual Red Square military parades suggest, Western diplomats and military experts say.


Putin has long projected an image of military might to strengthen his and Moscow's image at home and abroad, but Russia is overhauling its military far more slowly than China, observers say.

"Moscow's problems mean its ability to project conventional military force - something it is doing in Syria and has done in Ukraine - is not as great as the Kremlin would have the world believe," said one Western official with knowledge of Russia's military.

Moscow has a shortage of modern factories and skilled labour, and does not have the available financial resources needed to reverse decades of post-Soviet decline as quickly as it wants, Russian officials and military analysts say.

Andrei Frolov, editor-in-chief of Russian magazine Arms Exports, said Russia had successfully produced prototypes of new weapons systems, but struggled to move to serial production.

In his speech on Wednesday, Putin did not mention the navy's problems.

The programme to build Russia's most advanced stealth frigate, the Admiral Gorshkov-class, has been paralysed by sanctions. Russia hopes to add 14 more such ships to its navy but has no engines for 12 of those vessels.

The air force has also been an issue. Moscow had initially been expected to procure about 150 of the fifth-generation Su-57 stealth fighter jet, but defence industry and government officials say they now expect just one plane, the first serially produced aircraft, this year. A further 14 may follow.

Analysts say the costs of mass-producing the new fighter jet are simply beyond Russia. Plans for Russia's super tank have also foundered.

Rearmament problems

That does not mean Russia's military is not a force to be reckoned with. Some of its hardware, such as its S-400 air defence systems, are world class.

Putin has also spent heavily on missile technology, unveiling new hypersonic systems.

But Russia's air force and army, like its navy, are experiencing rearmament problems. Its new stealth fighter first took to the air more than nine years ago and a super tank made its Red Square debut almost four years ago. Neither is due to be deployed in large numbers soon, government officials say.

Richard Connolly, a Russia specialist at the University of Birmingham, said Moscow's military might should not be underestimated, but Russia was still suffering from the legacy of an economic crisis that followed the Soviet Union's collapse, hitting state arms orders and the military-industrial complex.

"It's not as easy as simply saying, 'Right, we've got the money so go and make it happen', because a lot of the shipyards have rusted," Connolly said.



SOURCE: REUTERS NEWS AGENCY




















Putin to U.S.: I'm ready for another Cuban Missile-style crisis if you want one









Reuters
4 MIN READ






MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia is militarily ready for a Cuban Missile-style crisis if the United States wanted one and threatened to place hypersonic nuclear missiles on ships or submarines near U.S. territorial waters.

The Cuban Missile Crisis erupted in 1962 when Moscow responded to a U.S. missile deployment in Turkey by sending ballistic missiles to Cuba, sparking a standoff that brought the world to the brink of nuclear war.


More than five decades on, tensions are rising again over Russian fears that the United States might deploy intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe, as a landmark Cold War-era arms-control treaty unravels.

Putin’s comments, made to Russian media late on Wednesday, follow his warning that Moscow will match any U.S. move to deploy new missiles closer to Russia by stationing its own missiles closer to the United States or by deploying faster missiles or both.

Putin detailed his warning for the first time, saying Russia could deploy hypersonic missiles on ships and submarines which could lurk outside U.S. territorial waters if Washington now moved to deploy intermediate-range nuclear weapons in Europe.

“(We’re talking about) naval delivery vehicles: submarines or surface ships. And we can put them, given the speed and range (of our missiles)... in neutral waters. Plus they are not stationary, they move and they will have to find them,” Putin said, according to a Kremlin transcript.

“You work it out: Mach nine (the speed of the missiles) and over 1,000 km (their range).”

TREATY VIOLATIONS

The State Department dismissed Putin’s earlier warning as propaganda, saying it was designed to divert attention from what Washington alleges are Moscow’s violations of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.

It referred queries about Putin’s latest remarks to the Pentagon, which did not immediately respond.

The INF pact bans Russia and the United States from stationing short- and intermediate-range land-based missiles in Europe. Washington announced on Feb. 1 it will withdraw from the treaty in six months unless Moscow ends its alleged violations.

Analyst Kingston Reif of the Arms Control Association think tank said Putin may be seeking to signal that Russia can keep up with the United States, to distract from its internal problems or to deflect blame for the parlous state of the INF treaty.

“He may also be trying to send the message that, look, neither side should want this world (of a new arms race) so we should sit down and resume discussions,” Reif said.

Putin has said he does not want an arms race but would have no choice but to act if Washington deployed new missiles in Europe, some of which he says could strike Moscow within 10 to 12 minutes.

The United States does not currently have ground-based intermediate-range nuclear missiles that it could place in Europe but could develop and deploy them if the INF treaty collapses.

Putin said his naval response to such a move would mean Russia could strike the United States faster than U.S. missiles deployed in Europe could hit Moscow because the flight time would be shorter.

“It (the calculation) would not be in their favor, at least as things stand today. That’s for sure.” said Putin.

Relations between Moscow and Washington were strained, he added, but the tensions were not comparable to those of the Cuban Missile Crisis.


“They (the tensions) are not a reason to ratchet up confrontation to the levels of the Cuban Missile Crisis in the 1960s. In any case that’s not what we want,” said Putin. “If someone wants that, well OK they are welcome. I have set out today what that would mean. Let them count (the missile flight times).”

Separately, Washington said on Thursday that it was carrying out an observation flight over Russia under the Open Skies Treaty, the first one since 2017.

In a statement, the Pentagon said an unarmed OC-135B aircraft was being used and Russia was aware of the flight.

















Thursday, February 21, 2019

This Historical Moment Demands Transformation of Our Institutions. The Green New Deal Won’t Do That.













Lisi Krall

The Green New Deal now taking shape in Washington will aim to address climate change through economic policies. While many of the potential policies being discussed, including a more steeply progressive income tax, would in themselves be positive developments, none of them would reduce greenhouse emissions as deeply as is required. To understand why, we should first look back at the economic foundations of the Depression-era New Deal, which is serving as inspiration for the Green New Deal (GND).

The original New Deal attempted to solve what were the particular manifestations of capitalism’s contradictions that surfaced in the 1930s.  In simplistic terms, overproduction, a common problem of industrial capitalism, resulted in massive unemployment and a multiplying effect that eventually created 25% unemployment by 1933. The New Deal firmly established the role of government in stabilizing an otherwise unstable system.  It also institutionalized a much needed social welfare foundation to underpin a system which could not be relied on to consistently provide people with income. 

The New Deal was given theoretical support by the Keynesian revolution, which provided a different perspective on the role of government in managing the problems of an advanced capitalist economy. Despite the rise of neoliberalism, the institutional fabric that we function with today is still of that New Deal/Keynesian ilk.
  
One of the most important policies for unequivocally ending the Great Depression (reinforcing the legitimacy of Keynesian policy) was the massive spending on military production for World War II.  The government ran huge deficits to fund the war effort, and after the war, the debt was repaid as the economy expanded (boosted partly by the fact that all other industrialized nations had been decimated).  

World War II was an external and immediate exigency (in some ways analogous to climate change) that required production and price controls as well as rationing in the short run simply because the economy could not produce what was needed immediately for the war and simultaneously provide consumers with all they wanted.  While those economic interventions were temporary, military spending became a more institutionalized part of the participation of government in the economy.

The New Deal and the Keynesian framework were clearly predicated on reinvigorating growth and curbing stagnation—the latter an inherent tendency of a mature capitalist economy.  And the problem of maintaining growth became increasingly difficult beginning in the latter half of the 20th century, which is to say the problem of stagnation (not simply downturns associated with the business cycle) became increasingly problematic. 

Our history with this New Deal legacy should sharpen our understanding of capitalism in the following ways. We should by now understand that capitalism is an unstable economic system that tends toward both growth and stagnation and stagnation is both cyclical and secular.  It is a system with systemic problems of inequality that exacerbate its instability. The inherent instability of the system and its inequality can be managed through various applications of fiscal and monetary policy augmented with a sound social welfare foundation, as well as more direct facilitation of the process of insuring investment outlets (again military spending is a good example of this). 

For the sake of exposition, I’m going to label this mix of problems and challenges the first contradiction of capital. All policies here pivot around growth with the exception of some mechanisms for redistribution of income.  Nowhere in the landscape of the New Deal was there any recognition that there were problems with growth itself or fossil fuel use. As Stan Cox wrote, “As far as I know, no one complained at the time about the 65 percent increase in fossil fuel consumption that occurred between 1935 and 1945 thanks to a growing economy.”  This was because the danger of running up against future biophysical limits was not recognized.

The problem of biophysical limits has now presented itself in no uncertain terms with the reality of climate change (and for those who care to look into the myriad of other examples of the ecological decay of Earth). Climate change is where the rubber meets the road in confronting what I will label the second contradiction of capital.  Energy in one form or another is the food of economic life. Growth depends on it and despite all the rhetoric to the contrary there are limits to what we can expect without it.

As far as I can tell this means we’ve got a problem, not just with climate change but with our ability to manage it and also manage the first  contradiction of capital. It seems the two contradictions cannot be solved simultaneously [see Krall and Kiltgaard (2011) and Klitgaard and Krall (2012).]  We can’t both grow and de-grow at the same time. 

Absolute decoupling remains an illusion, but I get why people might be attracted to it since the other choice is to face the problem of the dueling contradictions of capital.  It’s the same reason we get the GNDealers talking up a carbon tax and letting the magic of the market and human ingenuity take us to ever-higher pinnacles of progress.  I heard Thomas Friedman on NPR’s  Science Friday refer to this as “mean green” and tell us that green is the new, red, white and blue.

Let’s be clear—the GNDealers are counting on technology to absolve us from having to figure out how to resolve the first and second contradictions of capital simultaneously. The GND’s problem, as I understand it, is that it wants to deal with the first contradiction of capital  (job creation and new outlets for capital investment) and the second contradiction (biophysical limits) by assuming that we can transition to renewable energy seamlessly and at unrealistic speed, ultimately achieving both green growth and job security.   Of course, they advocate robust policies for dealing with inequality in addition to the benefits of employment through the build-up of a renewable energy infrastructure.  The implicit assumption is that by dealing with the first contradiction we will simultaneously deal with the second contradiction.  Problem solved?

As Cox points out, our short-term problem is that a declining ceiling on greenhouse emissions will in fact require allocation of energy among sectors and rationing among consumers simply because the ‘external’ problem (climate change, analogous in this example to WWII retooling to make war munitions) has to be solved quickly and it will require fossil fuel to do that.  In Cox’s words: “If we are to avoid climate catastrophe, we have to simultaneously bring an end to fossil-fuel burning and develop vast renewable energy capacity, both starting right now and both on a crash schedule.  That means the everyday economy must find a way to run on much less available energy.”

Ideally that policy measure should lead us to an ever clearer understanding that our short-run energy problem (the conversion problem) is but a variation on a much larger long-run energy problem (fueling an expanding economy on renewable energy while providing equity in access to energy). This is evident to everyone who is willing to scratch the surface of the Jacobson and Delucchi “100% renewable for 100% of rising demand” studies and published analyses that are critical of their studies.

Actually, if we were willing to pay attention to ecological decay and the 6th mass extinction we would understand that it isn’t simply a long-run energy problem we have, it’s a long-run growth problem.  That understanding changes everything, especially if it can’t be solved technologically. Yes, the rubber is meeting the road.    

The truth that the GND doesn’t appear to want to face is that we’re not simply dealing with some variation on the problems that the New Deal and its institutional legacy were meant to confront.  We are dealing with something that is much more complex and foundational.  We are dealing with two contradictions of capital that work against each other.  If we approach our present situation as if it is just another variation on an old problem (the first contradiction of capital) we will not be able to confront the second contradiction of capital. That’s because in the traditional New Deal queue we will cook ourselves for jobs and short-run economic stability through growth before we’ll pay attention to biophysical limits.  The problem is that it isn’t all that clear what cooking ourselves will mean for the quality of human life (not to mention other-than-human life) either in the short or the longer term. Let’s just say it looks like a decidedly downward trajectory for all parties concerned.

The challenge for the GND is to be revolutionary in the face of climate change. It seems clear we can’t solve the contradictions of capital with the same institutional baggage.  Assuring some measure of equality in the face of reduced energy will require limits. The build-up for WWII provides a precedent for our capacity to impose collective limits when we have to do so.  Collective limits are managed fairly only when reinforced and fortified with expansive social welfare institutions.

But we also need institutions that orbit around limits and not around growth and stagnation. The quick and decisive transition to renewable energy, orchestrated with strict limits, a commitment to equity, and rationing of both production and consumption will help us to begin this revolutionary transition recognizing that the 21st century problems of capitalism are unique.  

Access to energy must be resolved through rationing and not through markets for two reasons.  The market can be relied upon neither to produce what is necessary and not simply profitable nor to ensure sufficiency for all. More importantly, the market goes with the market economy which is not just a mechanism of allocation but a complex system of expansion and stagnation that generates inequality in its wake. (The market economy also has a tremendous penchant for drawdown of resources and ignoring the ecological integrities of Earth as well as sloughing off externalities).

So far the Green New Deal seems to be the same institutional package as the New Deal.  Unfortunately the landscape of contradictions that afflict capital has shifted. What we have on our hands is not more of the same; we have something categorically and foundationally different. We can’t end growth simply by  imposing external limits (caps on carbon for example) without simultaneously confronting the inner dynamics and problems of the first contradiction of capital. Instead we must rely on robust forms of limits coupled with more robust forms of redistribution. And much of our production (of energy, of transportation etc.) can no longer be merely a prerogative of capital. It must be directed and the social relations surrounding it must be redefined.

Historically we have managed the internal contradictions by assuring growth and drawdown of our ‘natural capital’. The problem of external limits has been ignored or inadequately managed with minor taxes and regulations.  But when growth is no longer an option to counteract the internal contradictions of the system, and when minor taxes and regulations no longer suffice to keep the economy within biophysical limits, we are required to move in a different direction.  Unless the movement to implement a GND understands that the burden of the historical moment is not merely to provide short run prospect for jobs and to replace fossil fuel with renewable energy, it will be inadequate to the historical moment.

The challenge of the GND is to erect a new economic framework that will allow us to exit the impossible prospect of trying to resolve both the first and second contradictions of capital that define 21st century capitalism.  Renewable energy technology doesn’t rise to the requirement of managing either the first or second contradiction, as much as we’d like to believe otherwise.  A carbon tax or a cap in conjunction with the hope that the market will handle the rest is a strategy that demonstrates a gross lack of understanding of 21st century capitalism and its capacities and inclinations as well as an overly optimistic view of technology.  

Let’s be clear, neoliberal economics is not our only problem, though there is no question neoliberal economic policy has made both the first and second contradictions of capital worse; it has also created a fundamentalist ideology about markets that has dribbled into the lexicon and thinking of the mainstream (Thomas Friedman, for example).

An unequivocal cap on carbon and rationing of production and consumption is the beginning of a new institutional approach to a new economic order.  As Cox notes, “The Green New Deal would not achieve an economic transformation,” and this historical moment demands such a transformation.

The historical moment demands the institutions of limits. Limits that not only constrain resource use but also find expression in the institutional fabric of our economic order (in production and distribution).  We must become collectively constrained in economic life.  Limits must move beyond the realm of individual conscience and choice and take up residence in the ordering of economic society. This is the challenge of a revolutionary GND.



Lisi Krall is a Professor of Economics at the State University of New York, Cortland. Her numerous essays and articles appear in diverse journals from the Cambridge Journal of Economics to Behavioral and Brain Sciences.