Sunday, July 30, 2017

US economic "resilience" is highly exaggerated




















Credit card debt is edging into record territory but not because of consumer confidence




By Danielle DiMartino Booth









Are US Federal Reserve stress tests leading economic indicators? That certainly seems to be the case.

Just ask Capital One Financial Corp.

As of the first quarter, credit card loss provisions at Capital One were above 5 per cent, a six-year high. The company recorded some improvement for the second quarter, yet Fed stress tests of the bank’s overall loan portfolio in a deep downturn show losses topping 12 per cent.

That explains Capital One’s “conditional” passing score, a black eye that prompted a reduced share buy-back plan and no increase in its dividend.

Most economists today applaud the resilience of the current recovery, which has stretched into its eighth year, the third-longest in postwar history. Resilience and rising household defaults, though, don’t tend to go hand in hand.

Pressures have been building in the background for some time. When adjusted for inflation, credit card usage has grown faster than incomes for 18 months. According to Fed data, that time frame coincides with the upturn in revolving credit, a proxy for credit card debt.

In November 2015, outstanding revolving credit crossed above the $900-billion threshold for the first time since December 2009. By May of this year, annual growth was clocking 8.7 per cent.

Meanwhile, credit card balances hit $1.02 trillion, the highest level in almost eight years.

Whether by choice or force, the aftermath of the financial crisis prompted households to ratchet back their usage of credit cards. As the recovery got underway, frugality prevailed, punctuated by an increase in debit card purchases.

It is thus notable that Bank of America data find debit card usage has weakened in recent years as households grew more comfortable rebuilding their credit card balances.

“Confidence” is the term most associated with the rising credit card debt. But it’s fair to ask why confident households would choose to pay so dearly for the privilege. At 15.83 per cent, the average rate on credit card balances is at a record high.

It is more likely that households are increasingly tapping their credit cards to cover the cost of necessities, that they are less confident and more anxious about their future finances.

The latest University of Michigan consumer confidence data suggest anxiety is indeed setting in. At 80.2, the expectations component is at the lowest since October and running below the 2016 average of 81.8.

According to the University of Michigan: “The data indicate that hopes for a prolonged period of 3 per cent GDP growth sparked by Trump’s victory have largely vanished, aside from a temporary snap back expected in Q2. The declines recorded are now consistent with just above 2 per cent GDP growth in 2017.”

The US retail sales report for June corroborates the forecast for continued muted economic growth. In constructing gross domestic product, statisticians net out auto, gasoline and building materials purchases from retail sales to arrive at a “control group”.

At 2.4 per cent, the annual growth rate of the control group has fallen to the lowest since January 2014.

The renewed weakness in consumption prompted the economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch to reduce their forecast for second-quarter GDP to 1.9 per cent. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast is a bit higher, at 2.4 per cent, but that’s a far cry from the robust 4.3 per cent rate anticipated on May 1.

In her recent congressional testimony, Fed Chair Janet Yellen expressed continued optimism for a strong second-quarter rebound in GDP growth. If the Atlanta Fed’s forecast pans out, first-half growth will stumble in at a 1.9 per cent rate, hardly reflective of accelerating economic activity.

Even the ebullient home builders have begun to concede that there could be more than just a supply shortage at the root of the slowing housing market. Pending home sales have fallen for three straight months and are now 1.7 per cent below their year-ago level.

The National Association of Realtors acknowledged that “weaker financial and economic confidence could also be playing a role in the slowdown in contract activity.” The NAR added that they had “found that fewer renters think it’s a good time to buy a home, and respondents overall are less confident about the economy and their financial situation than earlier this year.”

With rental inflation running 3.9 per cent above its year ago rate and homes priced out of their budgets, renters are effectively trapped in a budgetary vice. Housing costs consume about a third of households’ average budgets and largely dictate consumers’ wherewithal to finance the discretionary purchases that make the consumption-driven US economy hum.

Suffice it to say, when the costs of other necessities such as health care, the food you put on the table, your car payment and mobile-phone bills are also running high, it’s difficult to make ends meet. In a survey conducted by Survata and released in late June, 49 per cent of households said they were living paycheck-to-paycheck; six in 10 reported that their rainy-day funds could not cover six months of living expenses.

What’s a household to do under such circumstances? It would appear they’ve had to rely on credit cards. The eventual price tag for the economy remains to be seen and won’t be known until the next recession has come and gone.

As for how high the bill will be in the end, its likely Capital One already has that answer.

— Bloomberg





























Wall Street unprepared for even a 2.5% drop















 Wall Street isn’t ready for a 1,100-point tumble in the Dow industrials 


By Mark DeCambre

















The U.S. stock market has been on such a parabolic march higher that Wall Street investors may have forgotten what a typical, sharp downturn feels like.

Indeed, much has been made about the lack of volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index VIX+1.78% otherwise known as the “fear gauge,” had been flirting with its lowest close on record, implying that market expectations for a sharp, sudden fall are near rock bottom, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA+0.15% S&P 500 index SPX-0.13% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP-0.12%  scale new heights. (The Dow notched a fresh record on Friday to end the week 1.2% higher.)

The recent level of complacency permeating the market has pundits talking about the lack of 5% falls in the market—an occurrence that isn’t unusual in a normal market environment. However, a 5% tumble, while normal, isn’t that common either. It has occurred at least 75 times over the course of the blue-chip index’s, according to WSJ Market Data Group, using data going back to 1901. The Dow, however, hasn’t experienced a 5% decline since 2011, and before that a 5% drop hadn’t happened since 2008, when there were 9 such drops (see chart below):

At this point, with the Dow just 200 points shy of 22,000, a 5% selloff would equate to a 1,100-point, one-day slide in the gauge. Is the market ready for that sort of sudden jolt lower, given the optics of a quadruple-digit downturn and how it might rattle investment psyche?

Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities, doesn’t think so.

“I would say no because we’re out of practice. Your usual standard garden-variety volatility just hasn’t been around, and we haven’t seen it for 12 months,” Hogan told MarketWatch.

“Quiet markets have been the norm and not the exception and I think a major pullback is going to feel a whole lot larger for lack of experience and the numbers are larger,” he said.

Even a 2.5% drop in the Dow, adding up a 550-point decline, could be unsettling, market participants said. Those sorts of tumbles are far more frequent, with 564 such moves of that magnitude occurring in the Dow since 1901. The most recent slump of at least 2.5% was on June 24, 2016, when the Dow tumbled about 610 points, or 3.4%, a day after U.K. citizens voted to end the country’s membership in the European Union. There were 3 falls for the Dow of at least 2.5% in 2015.

Hogan said it is even hard to imagine what the landscape of the market would like in the face of a plunge of the same magnitude of the 1987 crash, when the Dow lost 22.6% of its value, or 508 points, in a single session.

“That’s why it is hard for investors to think about it intuitively. We have no muscle memory for it. It’s hard to harken back to 30 years ago. We have been lulled to sleep,” he said.

As for the S&P 500, going back to 1950, 61 of the past 67 years have had a 5% downdraft at least once, or 91% of all years, according to Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist, at LPL Financial.

“The inevitable 5% drop will be a shock to nearly everyone,” Detrick said. “We’ve been historically spoiled so far this year, but as the economic cycle ages, we fully expect more volatility the remainder of this year and the likely 5% correction to take place as well,” he said.

Market bears have offered no dearth of warnings that a slide is imminent, including citing rich valuations of the biggest names in technology, including Facebook Inc. FB+1.18% Apple Inc. AAPL-0.7% Google-parent Alphabet Inc. GOOG+0.8%  , GOOGL+0.61%  Netflix Inc. NFLX+0.74% and Amazon.com Inc. AMZN-2.48% which considers itself online retailer rather than a tech behemoth.

Billionaire investor Howard Marks, co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, said “this is time for caution,” pointing to a number of bad-market omens. Those include trailing 12-month price-to-earnings ratios, a measure of valuation, for S&P 500 stocks running at 25 times. He said another valuation metric, the Shiller Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio, known as the Shiller CAPE, is at its highest level since only two other times in the market’s history: 1929 and 2000

On CNBC on Thursday, Robert Shiller himself described the low level of volatility in the market as concerning, saying he “lies awake worrying” about how this period of quietude will last before things unravel. Though he admits that it could run longer than academics, market pundits and bears might expect.

So far, investors have demonstrated a preternatural resilience, shaking off political worries associated with an expanding investigation into Russia’s ties to members of President Donald Trump’s administration, infighting within that same administration, and the unwind of easy-money policies around the world as the Federal Reserve attempts to navigate its own efforts to normalize interest-rate policy amid sluggish signs of wage growth, prices and inflation—key measures of economic health.

When, not if, things go pear-shaped, Detrick recommends that investors put the move into perspective:

“The important thing to remember is the Fed is still accommodative, earnings continue to improve globally, and inflation is contained—meaning any pullback could be a nice opportunity to add equity exposure. Although a 5% correction might feel like 1987 to some of us about now, pullbacks and volatility are perfectly normal parts of bull markets and are needed to flush out the weak hands.”























What's The Matter With Democrats? Thomas Frank Explains




































In the last decade, the Democratic Party lost the White House, Congress, most governorships and hundreds of legislative seats. That happened as Democratic powerbrokers worked to promote more corporate-friendly leaders like Hillary Clinton, holding back more progressive icons like Sen. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

As the 2018 election approaches, author Thomas Frank argues that the party has made a catastrophic mistake by coddling big money and disavowing its New Deal roots. 

Frank first gained national notice with his 2004 book, “What’s the Matter With Kansas,” which analyzed how working-class voters backed Republicans — even as GOP politicians promoted policies that favored the rich. In his more recent book “Listen, Liberal,” Frank argues that the Democratic Party aided and abetted that trend by becoming the party of Wall Street.

In a recent podcast with International Business Times’ David Sirota, Frank asserted that President Obama had followed through on a multiyear project — first spearheaded by the Clintons — to move the Democratic Party away from its populist legacy and toward a politics that embraces corporate power and elitism. What follows is a lightly edited excerpt of that discussion.

Sirota: Where do you think the Democratic Party is today? Destroyed? On the verge of a rebound? Somewhere in between?

Frank: Basically, I think the Democratic party is in deep trouble. The evidence of that is now plain, I think, to everyone — that they're in a state of historic wipe-out across the country and in both of Houses of Congress, and of course, they lost the presidency, too… The leadership of the party have persuaded themselves that they don't really have a problem, that all they have to do is wait for [Donald] Trump to screw up and they'll waltz right back in, and so they don't have to do anything different. I think Trump represents the culmination of a long-term shift of working people, working-class people away from the Democratic Party. 

Sirota: What do you think that the Democrats didn't do right in the election, and even more importantly, what are they not doing right right now?

Frank: Look, you can talk about the tactical blunders and the things that brought them down: email scandal, or the premium increase in Obamacare, and all that stuff matters. The way I look at it is that this is a long-term problem. This is a culmination of a very long-term problem with the Democrats very gradually, but definitely, abandoning the interests of working-class voters, identifying themselves instead with a more affluent group, with the affluent white-collar professionals.

It starts in the 1970s with the Democrats removing organized labor from its structural position in the Democratic party, and then it goes up through Bill Clinton getting NAFTA done, the free trade deals that the Democrats have ... By the way, in my opinion, free trade or the trade agreements, I should say, was probably the issue that if there was one issue that really did Hillary in, I think that's what it was: the trade deals under the Clinton administration, Obama sort of dropping the ball on labor's various issues, doing these incredible favors for Wall Street while he blew off the concerns of union.

The ultimate evidence is what's happening with inequality. It gets worse and worse and worse every year. It's very easy to show how the Democrats have forgotten about organized labor, but what is really striking is the passion that they show for the knowledge industries, which includes Wall Street, Silicon Valley, big pharma, that sort of thing.

Sirota: Where do you see that passion the most?

Frank: Bailouts. The Wall Street bailout was the worst. This was, of course, George W. Bush ... No, take a step back further. The deregulation under Clinton. Do you remember, bank deregulation was something that we now think of it as one of the central elements of neoliberalism, but Reagan couldn't get it done. Reagan tried. They put some dents in Glass Steagall when Reagan was president, but it took a Democrat to really get it done, Bill Clinton, and it wasn't just blowing up Glass-Steagall. There was this whole series of bank deregulatory measures when he was president. By the end of his term in office, basically, Wall Street was more or less openly identified with the Democratic Party. This is an enormous historical shift…

The Democratic party [used to be] this sworn enemy of Wall Street. Franklin Roosevelt broke up all of these banks, the Glass Steagall Act, put all these banks out of business, and set up the Securities and Exchange Commission to regulate these guys, all of these regulatory measures. That's the Democratic heritage. That's the legacy of the New Deal. Up until the days of Clinton, that's really who the Democratic Party was. They had a very populist tone, and they would never identify themselves with Wall Street.

Barack Obama comes in, and I was one of these people who thought that he represented a turn back in the other direction and that he would be, very shortly would be, getting tough with Wall Street. He had all the bailouts were underway. He had total authority over these guys, and he didn't do it. Instead, he appointed all these various Clinton people to come in and manage the bailout situation.

Sirota: Why do you think Obama didn’t take the Democratic Party back to its New Deal roots?

Frank: That is the ultimate historical question about Barack Obama's presidency, and that's the shadow that will hang over him. That, and then the Trump election. Those two things are the shadows that will hang over his presidency forever. We don't really know. He's never really said, but the theory that I hammer at in "Listen, Liberal" is that there's a class solidarity between the people at the top of the meritocracy, the academic meritocracy, the kind of people that Barack Obama appointed to run all of his agencies, the kind of person that Barack Obama is, quite frankly. There's a class solidarity between that group and the Wall Street people. They're forever expressing their admiration, before the crash, of course, before the financial crisis, were forever expressing their admiration for the Wall Street guys, talking about how creative they were, how sophisticated they were, how much they admired them.

Sirota: On that point about class solidarity in the Democratic Party, it almost sounds like that famous idea of the “best and brightest” — the smartest folks who made tragically bad decisions back then about the Vietnam War. Is there a similarity there?

Frank: It's almost exact. There are very similar groups.  I was a big Obama supporter in '08. One of the reasons I really liked him is because I knew how smart he was. I had met Barack Obama, and I was very impressed by him. I knew that he would bring in smart people to run government. By the way, that's always the word that these people use to describe themselves. Smart. That's always the word they use. 

This seemed like a really good idea after George Bush, after the administration of hacks and cronies and all the idiocy. They'd run Washington into the ground. I was really excited that here comes Obama. He's going to put in these very smart people, and it's Larry Summers and it's Tim Geithner. Larry Summers was ... He's supposedly the smartest economist of his generation. He's the president of Harvard University, and all of these other guys. You go right down the list, and it's all of these people who are certifiable geniuses. They have very extremely excellent, formal academic credentials, and they proceed to continue the policies of the Bush administration towards Wall Street, basically unchanged.

Sirota: This gets to a question about “expertise.” If, as you argue, very smart, well-educated folks are making bad decisions, what is the alternative?

Frank: There is another option that I eventually figured out while I was writing this book because the first thing I did was to say, "Well, look, government by expert has, is failing us, you know?" I'd dig around in the past. Has it ever worked? The first thing you come across is the book you mentioned, "The Best and the Brightest," when the exact same thing happened during Vietnam, where you have these experts from, and again, they're mostly from Harvard, but from various other Ivy League institutions. It's the same problem. They won't listen to voices from outside their discipline, and they show this extraordinary deference to one another, to the people at the top.

Then I say, "Well, has there ever been a time when it worked?" This is where it gets interesting because, of course, there is. Government by expert has worked. The Roosevelt administration. They call them The Brain Trust. It worked very well. They pulled us out of the Depression. They won World War II. These guys were awesome. I start digging around. Who were these guys? Here is the fascinating thing. They were brilliant, but they came from all different walks of life. They weren't all these highly credentialed academic authorities. That's not what they were. This is the thing that you finally realize. There are highly intelligent people all over America, from all sorts of backgrounds, in all sorts of different industries. The best minds in banking aren't necessarily at Goldman Sachs…

What I discovered also is there is a lot of pathologies of professionalism. We had been talking about one of them, which is that they show this deference to one another at the top. Another is that they don't listen to voices from outside their discipline. You have the problem of orthodoxy.

Sirota: Which area of “expertise” do you think these problems are most prevalent in?

Frank: The worst offender  is economics. This is a discipline...I went to the University of Chicago. I have firsthand experience with these people, and they get things wrong all the time. They predict things that never happen. Things happen that they had could never have foreseen. They're just constantly, constantly getting things wrong, and they're protected. They're shielded from any kind of accountability by the nature of the professional discipline.

When you decide that this is how you're going to define expertise, this is how you're going to define excellence, is by going to the top people in a discipline like that — oh my God, I could predict even before you start what a disaster it's going to be. There's many other disciplines that are the same way. Political science. This is an endemic problem.

The other problem, I talked about how they have this deference for each other at the top. They have zero solidarity for people below them, zero. 

Here's what I realized. Basically, the unofficial philosophy of the Democratic Party is meritocracy, as defined by education. Everybody gets what they deserve, and what they deserve is defined by how they did in school. This is pernicious doctrine in all sorts of ways, but one of the most pernicious ways is that there is no solidarity in a system like that between the people at the top and the people lower down in the hierarchy. This is killer.

Sirota: Let’s turn to Obama’s record. Democrats and liberals often portray Obama’s legislative accomplishment in superlative terms. Do you think he amassed a record that puts him among the great Democratic presidents?

Frank: Let me put it this way. Everything that Barack Obama did, all of his great achievements in office, and there's basically only three of them, but all of them are half measures that were horribly watered down by a desire to do the exact opposite of what he was trying to do. Obamacare, the reason Obamacare is so incredibly tortuous and screwed up is because he was trying to preserve the private insurance companies. Dodd-Frank is the same kind of deal. He's trying to preserve the Wall Street banks and make sure nothing happens to them. You know how Dodd-Frank isn't ... They aren't even done writing it yet. It's incredibly long. I forget how many pages, 20,000 pages?

Sirota: Obama’s defenders, though, say, "Well he had to deal with a Republican Congress."

Frank: That wasn't correct at the time. This was before the Republicans got in. You’ve got to remember something about politics. It's not just inevitable that the Republicans are going to take over. Obama had many opportunities to get tough with the banks in a much more direct way… He could have put a bunch of these Wall Street banks out of business, put them into receivership. They richly deserved it… Obama didn't even prosecute anybody. There were civil suits against the banks, but those don't hurt anybody. Those were paid by the shareholders. The managers and the people that were passing off these obviously, clearly, blatantly fraudulent derivative securities, nothing happened to these guys.