Tuesday, June 30, 2015
Who thinks Greece is doing the right thing? Krugman does!
A lot of people are pointing
fingers at Greece’s leaders with claims that they are acting irresponsibly, but
Nobel-prize winning U.S. economist Paul Krugman said Greece is doing the right
thing.
He argues that the financial
noose around Greece’s neck has strangled the Greek economy. Every loan comes
attached with spending cuts, austerity and damage to the Greek economy.
In the past, in every
situation Greece has caved, becoming little more than a “financial slave state
mired in an economic depression. There is no way Greece will ever be able to
cut its way to prosperity,” says Krugman. Given that Europe refuses to
restructure Greece’s debt in a sustainable way and allow the country to try to
grow its way out of its misery, Greece has no choice but to default and
withdraw.”
Despite Greek PM A. Tsipras
being called “weak” to put the question to the test, Krugman notes that he is
being smart by not making the decision single-handedly. Rather, he is
forcing his own government and people to make the decision with him,
democratically via a referendum. This will improve Tsipras’ own odds of
surviving the messy and scary period to come.
The current Euro structure, in
which country governments control their own spending but borrow in a single
currency, will never work over the long-term unless, says Krugman, unless
states like Germany subsidize the poorer ones much like the richer states in
the United States subsidize the poor ones. This concept is a no-go for Europe’s
elite and this means that weak states like Greece are better off on their own.
Writing for his blog in New
York Times, Krugman notes he would vote ‘no':
I would vote no, for two
reasons. First, much as the prospect of euro exit frightens everyone — me
included — the troika is now effectively demanding that the policy regime of
the past five years be continued indefinitely. Where is the hope in that?
Maybe, just maybe, the willingness to leave will inspire a rethink, although
probably not. But even so, devaluation couldn’t create that much more chaos
than already exists, and would pave the way for eventual recovery, just as it
has in many other times and places. Greece is not that different.
Second, the political
implications of a yes vote would be deeply troubling. The troika clearly did a
reverse Corleone — they made Tsipras an offer he can’t accept, and presumably
did this knowingly. So the ultimatum was, in effect, a move to replace the
Greek government. And even if you don’t like Syriza, that has to be disturbing
for anyone who believes in European ideals.
Sunday, June 28, 2015
Paul Krugman: Breaking Greece
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/06/25/breaking-greece/
I’ve been staying fairly quiet
on Greece, not wanting to shout
Grexit in a crowded theater. But given reports from the negotiations in
Brussels, something must be said — namely, what do the creditors, and in
particular the IMF, think they’re doing?
This ought to be a negotiation
about targets for the primary surplus, and then about debt relief that heads
off endless future crises. And the Greek government has agreed to what are
actually fairly high surplus targets, especially given the fact that the budget
would be in huge
primary surplus if the economy weren’t so depressed. But the creditors keep
rejecting Greek proposals on the grounds that they rely too much on taxes and
not enough on spending cuts. So we’re still in the business of dictating
domestic policy.
The supposed reason for the
rejection of a tax-based response is that it will hurt growth. The obvious
response is, are you kidding us? The people who utterly failed to see the
damage austerity would do — see the chart, which compares the projections in
the 2010
standby agreement with reality — are now lecturing others on growth?
Furthermore, the growth concerns are all supply-side, in an economy surely
operating at least 20 percent below capacity.
Talk to IMF people and they
will go on about the impossibility of dealing with Syriza, their annoyance at
the grandstanding, and so on. But we’re not in high school here. And right now
it’s the creditors, much more than the Greeks, who keep moving the goalposts.
So what is happening? Is the goal to break Syriza? Is it to force Greece into a
presumably disastrous default, to encourage the others?
At this point it’s time to
stop talking about “Graccident”; if Grexit happens it will be because the
creditors, or at least the IMF, wanted it to happen.
Tsipras states that referendum is fundamental to democracy and states that the Greek nation is called to show “daring and virtue”
http://en.protothema.gr/pm-a-tsipras-defends-greeces-right-to-a-referendum/
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras
says that he will not be riled into a political skirmish by responding to main
opposition ND party leader Antonis Samaras’ accusations as the whole of Greece
knows their role in bringing the country to where it is today. He says
that today will remain in history as a day when eurozone members cast out a
member not allowing the leader of a democratic country to express itself as it
has a right to do. “We will all respect the result. We will defend democracy,
popular sovereignty and the founding values of Europe,” he said.
“We will not ask, in the land
where democracy was born, the permission of Mr. Schaeuble and Mr. Dijsselbloem
to give the floor to the Greek people,” he said. He said Europe shouldn’t fear
referendums – many countries have held them before, including in cases where
treaties such as Maastricht were implemented.
He accused the International
Monetary Fund of coming to Europe to cause a rift.
“Yesterday our creditors
blackmailed us with the threat of depriving liquidity,” he said. “Today they
used the fear of a bank run.” He referred to a “propaganda of fear” but he
argued that the referendum could shake it off.
Though Greece is a peaceful
country, he said that the country is not afraid of fighting when necessary. “We
negotiated with our back to the wall,” he said. “Despite these conditions,
every citizen in this land knows that Greece over these months, and the Greek
government has made an honest effort to negotiate with decisiveness and
dignity.”
Tsipras said that the IMF
presence zeroed the chances of an “honorable compromise.”
“They asked us to place the
burden on pensioners… to cut pensions, even the subsidy for the lowest
pensions,” said Tsipras. “They made it clear that they weren’t interested in
measures to tax wealth and would not include these in the measures.” He pointed
to the contradictions in negotiations and backtracking on agreements that had
already been made. Tsipras criticized creditors for insisting on further cuts
to pension spending, hitting the poorest and refusing to raise the minimum
wage.
Tsipras pointed to the
creditors’ demands on VAT in tourism. “Who are they working on?” “What interest
do they serve?” “Why do they want to create problems to Greece’s greatest asset
– tourism?” were some of the questions Tsipras asked.
After listing all the demands
the creditors had offered, he pointed to the vague pledges given in return. He
said that the measures would have brought “slow death” to Greece.
“Once you said that we were
leading the country to the rocks. Next, you said that we were signing
memorandums,” he said, referring to the opposition’s contradictory criticism.
“Perhaps there was envy that we are doing what you wanted to do but couldn’t, which
is resist!”
“Greece will not surrender!
Greece is not a game that’s over!” he said, adding that the intent was for an
“honorary compromise” and for a truly “viable solution”. He said that he wanted
an honest negotiation, not blackmail.
A referendum is not a “coup”
as some suggest, said the leader, who points out that calling the people on
their own future is not a problem. He said that the result of the referendum
will be respected. He criticized efforts to turn a memorandum on
creditors’ proposals into a memorandum for an exit from the euro, adding that
this is not the intent of the government.
“Greece is not a visitor or
guest in the European structure. We are equal amongst equals. No one has the
right to show us the door out from our common house and we are not intending to
give anyone this right at any rate,” he said, pointing to the popular mandate
on January 25 that gave an opportunity to Europe to change its course. The vote
also gave “Troika” the chance to become “institutions” to become democratic
organs, but they chose to “continue being troika that kill democracy in
Europe.”
“We don’t have the right to
make Greece a debt colony for the next few decades,” he said, adding that there
would be no death plaque placed on democracy in the land where democracy has
lived for thousands of years.