With advances in its missile
programme and the July 4 test, here are three technical milestones and why they
matter.
Since Kim
Jong-un's ascendancy in December 2011, North
Korea has accelerated its missile development programme, the tempo of tests increasing considerably from those
under his father Kim Jong Il. After failures in 2016, North Korea has this year
made genuine advances in its missile programme.
On Tuesday, July 4,
Independence Day in the United States, Pyongyang tested what it claimed was the
country's first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which Kim
Jong-un called a "gift" to the US.
This test is significant as
the projected range of the missile puts North Korea firmly in the
select group of countries that have produced an ICBM. With Kim Jong-un
threatening to reduce the US
"to ashes", North Korea now has expanded the missile's range to
potentially hit targets in the US.
Aside from the gradual
improvements, here are three of North Korea's recent technical milestones
which stand out and why they matter.
1. Firing almost vertically
and reaching higher altitudes
There are significant
challenges to testing a long-range missile in a country that is too small to
run test flights within its own border. Initially, North Korea's only
option was to launch these flights over its neighbours. It did that in 1998 by
test-firing the Taepodong-1 missile over mainland Japan, to instant
international condemnation.
Now, North Korea has started
launching longer-range missiles in what is known as a "lofted
trajectory", firing the missile almost vertically. This allows
the missile to land a short horizontal distance from launch
but travel a great distance overall. Higher altitudes are a strong
indication of new, more powerful engines and a greater ability to carry a
payload that distance.
These launches enable
Pyongyang to conduct realistic tests of longer-range missiles. They also allow engineers
to gather data sent back from the test missile to better understand
the challenges faced when a long-range warhead re-enters the Earth's
atmosphere at hypersonic speeds, something that generates vast
amounts of frictional heat.
This is exactly what North
Korea did when it tested the Hwasong-14 (Mars-14) on July 4.
According to the US
military's Pacific Command, or PACOM, which monitors these launches, it flew
for 37 minutes, rising to a maximum altitude (known as an
apogee) of nearly 2,800km, over seven times higher than the International Space
Station which is in orbit only some 400km above the Earth.
A steep, near-vertical
launch allowed the missile to travel a distance that roughly simulated
long-range flight by travelling higher than most missiles but splashing down
only a short distance away into the Sea of Japan, limiting the diplomatic
damage that would inevitably be caused by a random projectile flying through a
neighbour's airspace.
The ICBM, a clunky Cold
War-era name for a long-range missile, is formally defined as one that can
fly more than 5,500km.
According to David Wright of the Union of Concerned
Scientists, if the Hwasong-14 was fired under proper flight conditions,
it could reach a target more than 6,700km away. This puts the missile firmly in
the long-range or ICBM bracket, and means it could potentially hit the US
base on the island of Guam as well as Alaska, although the naval base on Hawaii
and the rest of the continental US are still out of reach.
2. Solid fuel means faster
launches
First tested by the North just
over a decade ago, solid-fuelled missiles are faster to set
up and easier to fire.
Unlike liquid fuels, which
take time to load and are extremely toxic and corrosive to handle, solid
fuels are easier to maintain and are more stable. A crude analogy
between the two is to liken solid-fuelled missiles to setting off
gunpowder-filled fireworks rather than filling each one with liquid fuel every
time you wanted to fire one. Solid fuel reduces launch times from hours to
minutes.
Reducing the time from when a
missile battery is taken out into the open to be readied for a launch, and
therefore is exposed to enemy observation, makes it far less likely to be
discovered and destroyed. Using solid fuels also scales back on the additional
vehicles needed to transport volatile and dangerous liquid fuels, making a
missile battery smaller and harder to spot. As this fuel is more stable,
it can also take a few knocks when moved around.
3. Toughening up missile
batteries
Fortifying a missile battery
so it can travel anywhere on land rather than along North Korea's tiny road
system - the country has 724km of paved and 24,830km of unpaved roads
respectively - gives it more places to hide.
North Korea has done this
by ruggedising the missile transporter (formally called a
transporter erector launcher or TEL). Tracks are used instead of wheels,
allowing the heavy vehicles to cross rough ground off the road system,
which would be monitored by an enemy trying to track down missile
batteries. The thin-skinned missile is also sheathed in a canister so it
survives bumpy off-road travel.
These improvements came
together in the successful February launch of the Pukguksong-2 (Polaris-2)
medium-range missile. Analysts across the world quickly realised the
test's importance as the combination of solid fuel, a ruggedised
transporter and a protected weapon, meant a battery could
potentially hide in forests, underneath cliff overhangs, under
bridges - virtually anywhere - and launch within minutes from a cold
start.
What is next for North Korea's
missile programme?
Producing next-generation
missiles that can reach the US will be key for North Korea.
This will not be an easy feat
given the trickier aspects of long-range flight. Designs must be able to
withstand the stresses and incredible heat produced in missiles by re-entering
the atmosphere.
The challenges will come
from improving the warhead and delivery system and coupling the
two. North Korean scientists will struggle to extend the missiles'
ranges while shrinking their still rudimentary nuclear devices so theý are
light enough to be carried by the missile to the target.
Then there is the quest for
accuracy, if the missiles are to have any military use.
North Korea has bragged that
its latest batch of missile tests were extremely accurate. It is still vague
how this accuracy is being assessed given that North Korea does not
have a network of satellites able to guide distant warheads to their targets,
relying on the projectiles' much less accurate inertial guidance system.
This electronic system is used
in older missiles such as the Scud. It works on the principle of the
missile using internally measured basic data on its speed, direction, and so
on, to try to roughly assess where it ended up rather than being told where it
was exactly by, say, the Global Positioning System (GPS).
If the sharp tempo of tests
doesn't abate, North Korea is likely to see substantial improvements in its
missile programme. Kim Jong-un seems determined to "frequently
send big and small 'gift packages' to the Yankees", as he instructed
scientists this week, according to the country's state media KCNA.
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